WORLD ENERGY PICTURE

Figure 1

World Energy Consumption Projections indicate continued growth in world energy use, despite world oil prices that are 35 percent higher in 2025 than projected in Projections indicate continued growth in world energy use, despite world oil prices that are 35 percent higher in 2025 than projected in Energy resources are thought to be adequate to support the growth expected through Energy resources are thought to be adequate to support the growth expected through 2030.

world economic growth continues to increase at an average annual rate of 3.8 percent over the projection period, driving the robust increase in world energy use. world economic growth continues to increase at an average annual rate of 3.8 percent over the projection period, driving the robust increase in world energy use. Total world consumption of marketed energy expands from 421 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2003 to 563 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 722 quadrillion Btu in 2030, or a 71-percent increase over the 2003 to 2030 period. Total world consumption of marketed energy expands from 421 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2003 to 563 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 722 quadrillion Btu in 2030, or a 71-percent increase over the 2003 to 2030 period. World Energy Consumption

OECD Vs Non OECD Countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (non-OECD countries) account for three-fourths of the increase in world energy use. Countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (non-OECD countries) account for three-fourths of the increase in world energy use. Non-OECD energy use surpasses OECD energy use by 2015 (Figure 8), and in 2030 total energy demand in non-OECD countries exceeds that in the OECD countries by 34 percent. Non-OECD energy use surpasses OECD energy use by 2015 (Figure 8), and in 2030 total energy demand in non-OECD countries exceeds that in the OECD countries by 34 percent.

Much of the growth in energy demand among the non-OECD economies occurs in non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India. Demand in the region nearly triples over the projection period. Much of the growth in energy demand among the non-OECD economies occurs in non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India. Demand in the region nearly triples over the projection period. Total primary energy consumption in the non-OECD countries grows at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent between 2003 and In contrast, for the OECD—with its more mature energy-consuming nations—energy use grows at a much slower average rate of 1.0 percent per year over the same period. Total primary energy consumption in the non-OECD countries grows at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent between 2003 and In contrast, for the OECD—with its more mature energy-consuming nations—energy use grows at a much slower average rate of 1.0 percent per year over the same period. World Energy Consumption

World Energy by Type of Fuel Fossil fuels continue to supply much of the increment in marketed energy use worldwide throughout the projections. Fossil fuels continue to supply much of the increment in marketed energy use worldwide throughout the projections. Oil remains the dominant energy source over the projection period, but its share of total world energy consumption declines from 38 percent in 2003 to 33 percent in 2030, largely in response to higher world oil prices in 2006, which dampen oil demand in the mid-term. Oil remains the dominant energy source over the projection period, but its share of total world energy consumption declines from 38 percent in 2003 to 33 percent in 2030, largely in response to higher world oil prices in 2006, which dampen oil demand in the mid-term.

Oil Consumption Worldwide oil consumption rises from 80 million barrels per day in 2003 to 98 million barrels per day in 2015 and then to 118 million barrels per day in Worldwide oil consumption rises from 80 million barrels per day in 2003 to 98 million barrels per day in 2015 and then to 118 million barrels per day in Worldwide, transportation and industry are the major growth sectors for oil demand. On a global basis, the transportation sector—where there are currently no alternative fuels that compete widely with oil— accounts for about one-half of the total projected increase in oil use between 2003 and 2030, with the industrial sector accounting for another 39 percent of the incremental demand. Worldwide, transportation and industry are the major growth sectors for oil demand. On a global basis, the transportation sector—where there are currently no alternative fuels that compete widely with oil— accounts for about one-half of the total projected increase in oil use between 2003 and 2030, with the industrial sector accounting for another 39 percent of the incremental demand.

Survey of Energy Resources 2004 Oil North America South America Europe Africa Middle East Asia Oceania RESERVES 148 Gt PRODUCTION 3.5 Gt/year CONSUMPTION 3.5 Gt/year R/P RATIO 41.2 years

Natural Gas Consumption The higher world oil price also affects natural gas markets. For many years, it has been projected that natural gas would be the fastest growing energy source in the mid-term; however, higher natural gas prices in 2006 make coal more cost-competitive, especially in the electric power sector, and as a result natural gas use and coal use increase at similar rates. The higher world oil price also affects natural gas markets. For many years, it has been projected that natural gas would be the fastest growing energy source in the mid-term; however, higher natural gas prices in 2006 make coal more cost-competitive, especially in the electric power sector, and as a result natural gas use and coal use increase at similar rates. Natural gas demand rises by an average of 2.4 percent per year over the 2003 to 2030 period and coal use by an average of 2.5 percent per year. Total world natural gas consumption rises from 95 trillion cubic feet in 2003 to 134 trillion cubic feet in 2015 and 182 trillion cubic feet in Natural gas demand rises by an average of 2.4 percent per year over the 2003 to 2030 period and coal use by an average of 2.5 percent per year. Total world natural gas consumption rises from 95 trillion cubic feet in 2003 to 134 trillion cubic feet in 2015 and 182 trillion cubic feet in 2030.

Survey of Energy Resources 2004 Natural Gas North America South America Europe Africa Middle East Asia Oceania RESERVES 171 tcm PRODUCTION 2.6 tcm/year CONSUMPTION 2.6 tcm/year R/P RATIO 59.8 years >

Coal Coal use worldwide increases by 2.4 billion tons between 2003 and 2015 and by another 2.7 billion tons between 2015 and Coal use worldwide increases by 2.4 billion tons between 2003 and 2015 and by another 2.7 billion tons between 2015 and Nearly all regions of the world show some increase in coal use, except for Japan. In Japan, the electricity sector continues to be dominated by natural gas and nuclear power generation. In addition, with its population growing more slowly, Japan’s electricity demand is likely to grow slowly, so that new coal-fired capacity additions are unlikely to be needed. Nearly all regions of the world show some increase in coal use, except for Japan. In Japan, the electricity sector continues to be dominated by natural gas and nuclear power generation. In addition, with its population growing more slowly, Japan’s electricity demand is likely to grow slowly, so that new coal-fired capacity additions are unlikely to be needed.

Coal With higher prices for oil and natural gas making coal more competitive, the projection for world coal use in 2025 is 16 percent higher (on a tonnage basis) than in With higher prices for oil and natural gas making coal more competitive, the projection for world coal use in 2025 is 16 percent higher (on a tonnage basis) than in Consequently, coal’s share of total energy use rises from 24 percent in 2003 to 27 percent in 2030, and world coal consumption continues to exceed world natural gas consumption throughout the projections. Consequently, coal’s share of total energy use rises from 24 percent in 2003 to 27 percent in 2030, and world coal consumption continues to exceed world natural gas consumption throughout the projections. The largest increases in coal use worldwide are projected for China and India, where coal supplies are plentiful. Together, China and India account for 86 percent of the rise in non- OECD coal use and 70 percent of the total world increase in coal demand over the projection period. The largest increases in coal use worldwide are projected for China and India, where coal supplies are plentiful. Together, China and India account for 86 percent of the rise in non- OECD coal use and 70 percent of the total world increase in coal demand over the projection period.

Survey of Energy Resources 2004 Coal North America South America Europe Africa Middle East Asia Oceania RESERVES 909 Gt PRODUCTION 4.8 Gt/year CONSUMPTION 4.8 Gt/year

Electricity Consumption Net electricity consumption more than doubles between 2003 and 2030, from 14,781 billion kWh to 30,116 billion kWh. Net electricity consumption more than doubles between 2003 and 2030, from 14,781 billion kWh to 30,116 billion kWh. The strongest growth in net electricity consumption is projected for the non-OECD economies, averaging 3.9 percent per year. The strongest growth in net electricity consumption is projected for the non-OECD economies, averaging 3.9 percent per year. Robust economic growth in many of the non-OECD countries is expected to boost demand for electricity to run newly purchased home appliances for air conditioning, cooking, space and water heating, and refrigeration. Robust economic growth in many of the non-OECD countries is expected to boost demand for electricity to run newly purchased home appliances for air conditioning, cooking, space and water heating, and refrigeration. Although expanding use of home appliances and other electronic devices also results in increased demand for electricity in the OECD nations, their more mature infrastructures and slower rates of population expansion result in slower growth for total net electricity consumption, averaging 1.5 percent per year over the projection horizon. Although expanding use of home appliances and other electronic devices also results in increased demand for electricity in the OECD nations, their more mature infrastructures and slower rates of population expansion result in slower growth for total net electricity consumption, averaging 1.5 percent per year over the projection horizon.

Order of Magnitude of Energy Resources

Summary No shortage of global energy resources No shortage of global energy resources Availability of fossil fuels: Availability of fossil fuels: –Oil40 years –Natural Gas60 years –Coal200 years Uneven distribution of strategic resources around the world Uneven distribution of strategic resources around the world Consumption areas do not all coincide with production areas Consumption areas do not all coincide with production areas

Summary Environmental issues/rules will play a strategic role in sustainable development Environmental issues/rules will play a strategic role in sustainable development Growing short-term focus of liberalised energy markets Growing short-term focus of liberalised energy markets Substantial increase of non-hydro renewables, but total share only some 5% in 2030 (with wind and bio-energy the leading players) Substantial increase of non-hydro renewables, but total share only some 5% in 2030 (with wind and bio-energy the leading players)

Summary New strategic approaches and international cooperation are ESSENTIALbut a global political will must first exist