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Cognitive Illiberalism: Anatomy of a Bias

What am I talking about? Cultural cognition cognitive illiberalism 1. Model: Cultural cognition as bias

Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Unbiased Evidence Assessment

Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Confirmation Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview Cultural Cognition Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds Cultural Cognition Bias

Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview Cultural Cognition Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

What am I talking about? Cultural cognition cognitive illiberalism 1. Model: Cultural cognition as bias

Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, (2011).

High Risk (science conclusive) Low Risk (science inconclusive) Climate Change

Low Risk (safe) High Risk (not safe) Geologic Isolation of Nuclear Wastes

High Risk (Increase crime) Low Risk (Decrease Crime) Concealed Carry Laws

Climate Change Nuclear Power Climate Change Nuclear Power Guns/Gun Control Risk Perception Key: Low Risk High Risk Mary Douglas’s “Group-Grid” Worldview Scheme Environmental Risk Abortion Compulsory psychiatric treatment Compulsory psychiatriatic treatment Guns/Gun Control HPV Vaccination Egalitarian Communitarian Individualist Hierarchist

High Risk (science conclusive) Low Risk (science inconclusive) Climate Change

Low Risk (safe) High Risk (not safe) Geologic Isolation of Nuclear Wastes

High Risk (Increase crime) Low Risk (Decrease Crime) Concealed Carry Laws

N = 1,500. Derived from ordered-logit regression analysis, controlling for demographic and political affiliation/ideology variables. Culture variables set 1 SD from mean on culture scales. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence Concealed Carry Climate Change Nuclear Power 31% 54% 22% 58% 61% 72% Pct. Point Difference in Likelihood of Selecting Response 60% 40% 20% 0 20% 40% 60% Egalitarian Communitarian More Likely to Agree Hierarchical Individualist More Likely to Agree Featured scientist is a knowledgeable and credible expert on...

Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview Cultural Cognition Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

Source: Kahan, Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), (2009) Perceive Benefits > Risks * Change across conditions significant at p < % 25% 50% 75% 100%

Source: Kahan, Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), (2009) * Change across conditions significant at p < % 25% 50% 75% 100% Perceive Benefits > Risks

Source: Kahan, Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), (2009) * Change across conditions significant at p < % 25% 50% 75% 100% Perceive Benefits > Risks

Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview Cultural Cognition Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview Cultural Cognition Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview Cultural Cognition Bias prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

What am I talking about? Cultural cognition cognitive illiberalism 1. Model: Cultural cognition as bias

“They Saw a Protest”: Cognitive Illiberalism and the Noncommunicative Harm Principle Stanford Law Review (in press)

Did protestors cross the line between “speech” and “intimidation”?

Experimental Conditions Recruitment Center ConditionAbortion Clinic Condition

Experimental Conditions Recruitment Center ConditionAbortion Clinic Condition

Select fact perception items Case-outcome items

Experimental Conditions Recruitment Center ConditionAbortion Clinic Condition

“The record confirms that any distress occasioned by Westboro’s picketing turned on the content and viewpoint of the message conveyed, rather than any interference with the funeral itself.” Snyder v. Phelps, 131 S. Ct (2011)

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Individualism Cultural Cognition Worldviews Communitarianism hierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians egalitarian communitariansegalitarian individualists

Anti- demonstrator Pro- demonstrator Hypotheses “Complete Polarization” “Semi-polarization”

Pct. Agree Sample-wide Responses

Pct. Agree Abortion Clinic Recruitment Ctr

Pct. Agree Abortion Clinic Recruitment Ctr

Anti- demonstrator Pro- demonstrator “Complete Polarization” “Semi-polarization” Hypotheses

Pct. Agree Protestors blocked Screamed in face Pedestrians just not want to listen Police just annoyed

Anti-demonstrator Pro-demonstrator pro_protestor (z-score) N = 196. Dependent variable is pro_protestor (z-score). Bold denotes significant at p < 0.05

Discussion: 1. Decisionmaking bias * cognitive * legal /normative 2. Liberal democratic legitimacy 3. Debiasing * self-affirmation (jury) * “Aporia” (judges) } Cognitive Illiberalism

Prior Factual Belief New Evidence Revised Factual Belief prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds 100:1 1:100

Prior Factual Belief Scream in Face Revised Factual Belief 10 prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds 10:1 1: :1 1:100 New Evidence

Prior Factual Belief Revised Factual Belief 10 1 New Evidence 10:1 1: :1 1:100 prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

Prior Factual Belief Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview :1 1:100 10:1 1:100 prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

Prior Factual Belief Revised Factual Belief Cultural Worldview :1 1:100 10:1 1:100 prior odds X likelihood ratio = posterior odds

Discussion: 1. Decisionmaking bias * cognitive * legal /normative 2. Liberal democratic legitimacy 3. Debiasing * self-affirmation (jury) * “Aporia” (judges) } Cognitive Illiberalism

What am I talking about? Cultural cognition cognitive illiberalism 1. Model: Cultural cognition as bias

Dan M. Kahan Yale Law School Donald Braman George Washington University John Gastil University of Washington Geoffrey Cohen Stanford University Paul Slovic University of Oregon Ellen Peters Ohio State University Hank Jenkins-Smith University of Oklahoma David Hoffman Temple Law School Gregory Mandel Temple Law School Maggie Wittlin Cultural Cognition Project Lab Lisa Larrimore-Ouelette Cultural Cognition Project Lab Danieli Evans Cultural Cognition Project Lab June Carbone Univ. Missouri-Kansas City Michael Jones Safra Ethics Center, Harv. Univ. Naomi Cahn George Washington University Jeffrey Rachlinksi Cornell Law School John Byrnes Cultural Cognition Project Lab John Monahan University of Virginia

www. culturalcognition.net “I am you!”