CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS John Randall Registrar General for Scotland INSTITUTE OF CONTEMPORARY SCOTLAND LECTURE SCOTLAND’S POPULATION 30 October.

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CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS John Randall Registrar General for Scotland INSTITUTE OF CONTEMPORARY SCOTLAND LECTURE SCOTLAND’S POPULATION 30 October 2002

OUTLINE OF TALK 1OVERALL POPULATION CHANGE 2MIGRATION 3BIRTHS 4DEATHS 5CHANGES IN AGE STRUCTURE 6MARRIAGES AND DIVORCES 7KEY ISSUES

projected SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION,

SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION

POPULATION CHANGE

PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGE IN EU COUNTRIES

POPULATION CHANGE BY COUNCIL AREA

SCOTLAND: NATURAL CHANGE AND NET MIGRATION

SCOTLAND: NET MIGRATION

SCOTLAND: NET MIGRATION WITH REST OF UK/OVERSEAS

SCOTLAND: NET MIGRATION RATES PER 1,000 POPULATION FOR HEALTH BOARD AREAS

SCOTLAND: MIGRATION TO AND FROM THE REST OF THE UK BY AGE IN 2000

Projected SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED BIRTHS AND DEATHS

SCOTLAND: BIRTHS

SCOTLAND: BIRTHS PER 1,000 WOMEN BY AGE

TOTAL FERTILITY RATES

TOTAL FERTILITY RATES FOR EU COUNTRIES IN 2000

SCOTLAND: DEATHS

SCOTLAND: STILLBIRTH, PERINATAL AND INFANT DEATH RATES

Projected SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH

ESTIMATED EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH IN EU COUNTRIES 1999 Source: ONS, Eurostat

SCOTLAND: DEATHS BY SELECTED CAUSES

AGE-ADJUSTED MORTALITY RATES BY SELECTED CAUSE IN 2000 MALES FEMALES

STANDARDISED MORTALITY RATES BY COUNCIL AREA IN 2001

SCOTLAND: CHANGES IN AGE STRUCTURE % -23% +20% +11% +29% -18% -23% +20% +11% -2% +29%

SCOTLAND: PROJECTED CHANGES IN AGE STRUCTURE

SCOTLAND: POPULATION BY AGE AND SEX IN 2001 MALESFEMALES

SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED AGE STRUCTURE MALESFEMALES MALESFEMALES MALESFEMALES MALES FEMALES Scotland 1911 Scotland 1951 Scotland 2001 Scotland 2031

projected SCOTLAND: ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED DEPENDENCY RATIOS Total Dependency Ratio Under

SCOTLAND: MARRIAGES

SCOTLAND: MARRIAGES BY MARITAL STATUS OF PERSONS MARRYING

SCOTLAND: MARRIAGES BY TYPE OF CEREMONY

SCOTLAND: DIVORCES

KEY ISSUES 1DECLINING POPULATION 2GEOGRAPHICAL CHANGE 3AGEING POPULATION 4LOW FERTILITY 5RELATIVELY HIGH MORTALITY 6REDUCING MIGRATION LOSS

CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS John Randall Registrar General for Scotland INSTITUTE OF CONTEMPORARY SCOTLAND LECTURE SCOTLAND’S POPULATION 30 October 2002

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