JMP and SEI research for the Yorkshire and Humber Assembly
Research aims to identify practical, deliverable measures within the scope of regional transport policy to significantly reduce levels of carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector
Context for this study
Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Fourth Assessment Report
Context The earlier YHA report Evaluating the contribution that key regional strategies make towards addressing climate change identifies the contribution of transport to the region’s carbon dioxide emissions 2007
Context Transport’s contribution to CO 2 emissions in Yorkshire and the Humber
Context – earlier YHA research Modelling of the contribution of transport to a number of hypothetical future scenarios was undertaken, including the Y&H Vision, and a Stabilising Carbon Trends (SCT) scenario
Context Transport assumptions in the SCT scenario
Our research and the modelling using REAP
The task on transport
How did we do this?
Modelling using REAP
In short REAP modelling can provide an indicative view of carbon dioxide emissions under a range of policy scenarios.
Modelling in this research
Developing Scenarios
Business as usual scenario Essentially a baseline position based on continuing delivery of LTP and other existing programmes of transport policy interventions.
Do-something scenarios Packages of practical measures that help to achieve increased vehicle occupancy and reduced travel distances, especially by the car This involves the modelling of far reaching programmes of practical transport investment and interventions in the period from 2011, way beyond the scale of current practice in the region
Practical transport interventions
Interventions used in the modelling
Far reaching packages Applied at practical levels to account for regional differences Up to 16 different interventions modelled in each future scenario Modelled effects of the combination of these interventions
Interventions used in the modelling Personalised journey planning Regional smartcard Light rail extensions Bus priority measures Rail electrification Workplace travel plans Home working or teleworking Travel awareness and education campaigns Grocery home shopping
Interventions used in the modelling School travel plans Car clubs Car sharing HOV lanes Mileage based road user charging Congestion charging in urban areas Car free zones A radical approach to land use planning at new developments
Results of the modelling
Business as Usual Land transport only
Business as Usual Including aviation
Step change scenario Land transport only
Step change scenario Including aviation
Accelerated scenario Land transport only
Accelerated scenario Including aviation
Comparison of scenarios Including aviation
Key Conclusions
Where do we go from here?
The road from Bali ….. must be paved not with good intentions but concrete actions and rigorous implementation His Excellency Mr. Rachmat Witoelar, President, UN Climate Change Conference, closing address, Bali, 15th December 2007