The Economics of Storage AG BM 102

Introduction One crop a year means storage in some form No one will store without the expectation of making money Economics of storage explains this

The economics of time Money now more valuable than money later Interest on deferred money a cost Also physical costs of storage Also risk Deterioration

A simple model 2 periods – one with harvest, one without Costs money to store until next period Market equilibrium is total supply = total demand Total demand = demand now + demand later

To transform future demand to the present, storage cost must be subtracted from the price. This is a vertical shift down.

To get total demand, add the demand for each period together horizontally. This can be done algebraically or by using carefully drawn graphs The place where total supply crosses the demand curve determines the price now and the quantity supplied

The quantity stored, which is also the quantity demanded later, is found by finding where the price now, crosses the demand curve for later, adjusted for the storage costs, and then taking this quantity up to the original demand curve for the later period. The price later will be the price now plus the storage costs.

Economics of Storing Grain

Why Store Grain? Market incentive Marketing Flexibility Time Management

Basis The difference between the price on the futures market and your local price at some point in time

Example Price in Chicago Thursday $3.48 on the December 2014 corn contract and $3.70 on the May Price in Pennsylvania on Monday was $3.56. So the time value of storing for two months until December is 14 cents. The premium to store until May is 35 cents.

Market Incentive Corn Price in Chicago Dec = $3.48 Price in Chicago May = $3.70 Price in SE PA now = $3.57 Avg May Basis = $0.29 Expected Price May = $3.70+$0.29=$3.99 Expected Market Incentive $3.99 – 3.57 = $0.42

One way to look at this is the $0.42 has two pieces $0.13 for time and $0.29 for distance, which total $0.42 Now compare this to your storage costs

Costs to Consider Ownership Costs of Facilities and Equipment Opportunity cost for value of grain Extra shrink and drying costs Dry matter loss Electricity costs for aerating and moving Labor for checking and handling

Fixed Costs Depreciation Interest Repairs Taxes Insurance A new bin costs about $2.00/bushel or more for 10,000 bu. bins or larger. Smaller bins will cost a bit more per bushel

Fixed costs are only an issue until the bins are built. After that they are sunk

Variable Costs Interest on grain On-farm drying costs Shrinkage costs Labor Costs Quality Discount Other

Variable Costs ItemAmount Interest 5 Drying Costs$0.045 Shrinkage Costs$0.067 Labor Costs$0.015 Quality Discount$0.000 Total Variable$0.200

Do You Store? Based on these costs and prices- store your corn Each year is unique and also within a year The incentive is 42 cents and your costs are 20 cents. This year the market is saying “Store your corn!”

Is it a good idea to store your own grain? How much is the expected price differential? How much are your variable costs? Do you want the headache? Do you already own the bin? Are the time management issues important enough to offset any storage losses

Storage Summary Economics of storage straightforward Someone must do it Prices give incentive Market must reflect storage costs