Indian Merchants’ Chamber Discussion on Amendments proposed in Finance Bill March 2013
The number game
Budget 2013–2014— Thought sharing by EYPage 3 Macro assumptions ► GDP Growth at 6.1% - 6.7% ► Nominal GDP Growth at 13.4% ► Assumed inflation rate at 7% if real GDP growth is about 6.4%
Budget 2013–2014— Thought sharing by EYPage 4 Non Plan Expenditure / Subsidies Expenditure (1) BE (2) RE (3) BE (4) % change in (4) over (3) Non Plan Plan TOTAL Major Subsidies(2) RE (3) BE (4) % change in (4) over (3) Food Fertilisers Petroleum (33.0) TOTAL (10.8) Rs crores
Budget 2013–2014— Thought sharing by EYPage 5 Revenue RE BE % change Gross Tax Revenue % Non tax Revenue % Total Revenue Receipts % Corporate Tax % Surcharge % Education Cess % Taxes on income % Surcharge Education Cess % Customs % Excise % Service Tax % Rs crores
Budget 2013–2014— Thought sharing by EYPage 6 Implied tax buoyancies # Type of tax FY14 Tax buoyancy (% change in tax revenue/ % change in GDP at market prices) 1 Gross Tax Revenue Corporation Tax T axes on Income other than Corporation Tax Customs Union Excise duties Service Tax2.67 Overall expenditure increase of 16.4% is being financed by assuming a nominal growth of 13.4% and a buoyancy of nearly 1.5 in gross tax revenues. This seems unrealistic. This buoyancy was 0.93 in FY12 and 1.3 with respect to RE in FY13.
Reaction to the Budget: EY – ET Budget Poll
Budget 2013–2014— Thought sharing by EYPage 8 EY – ET Budget Poll Majority of the respondents agreed that: ► More was expected from the Budget in terms of ► Clear road map on GST ► Clarification on indirect transfer ► Guidelines on step taken to implement the Shome committee reports on GAAR and Indirect transfer ► 60% of the respondents felt that foreign investors had no cause for cheer with the Budget provisions ► On the policy front, the Budget lacked incentives to attract foreign investments which could impact growth ► While the FM has kept the indirect tax rates steady and sought to regularize the property market, increase in surcharge rates and ambiguity on TRC have not gone down well.