Client-level Analysis of Emergency Shelters: Columbus and Franklin County, Ohio RLUS Steering Committee Presentation December 5, 2006

2 Prepared for the Rebuilding Lives Updated Strategy Steering Committee Prepared by Stephen Metraux, Ph.D. – University of the Sciences in Philadelphia Dennis P. Culhane, Ph.D. – University of Pennsylvania

3 Goals Understand shelter utilization (families and singles) dynamics from 1996 to 2005, including: Trends over time in shelter use (average daily census, prevalence, length of shelter stays) Relationships between shelter exits & housing placements Population Demographics “Churning” analyses - family shelters today (& single adults in February)

4 Data Sources Two administrative data sets: “legacy” data – HMIS data – 2003-present

5 Average Daily Census – Single Adults Males substantial seasonal fluctuation overall increasing trend in Legacy period ( ) marked decrease co-occurring with increases in supportive housing placements overall “flat” trend for HMIS period ( ) Females less seasonal fluctuation smaller bed capacity steady increase in Average Daily Census in both Legacy & HMIS periods

6 ADC for Single Adult Households

7 Average Daily Census - Families substantial seasonal fluctuation overall declining trend in Legacy period ( ) diversion policies in family shelters adopted in 1999 co-occur with decreased Average Daily Census overall “flat” trend for HMIS period ( ) size of families households appear to increase over time during HMIS period

8 Average Daily Census for Family Households

9 “Front Door” & “Back Door” Dynamics “Front Door” (i.e., changes in entries to shelter) “Back Door” (i.e., changes in exits from shelter)

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11 Shelter Exits, Housing, & Shelter Return Exits from shelter to housing following successful program completion: Families – 57% Single Adults – Males 15%; Females 31% Repeat shelter stay subsequent to shelter exit: Families – 10% Single Adults – Males 37%; Females 26%

12 Shelter Exits, Housing, & Shelter Return – Regression Findings The longer the shelter episode, the higher the odds for a household (single adult or family) to exit to a housing placement; Income increases the odds of receiving a housing placement upon exit, wages increased odds 5-fold. Housing placement was strongest factor in reducing the hazards of repeat shelter stay Among families, repeat shelter stays are a relatively rare event.

13 Single Adult Demographics – Annual Prevalence and % Male Single Adults - MaleSingle Adults - Female N (% total population) (87.2%) (86.4%) (85.3%) (83.2%) (77.0%) (76.8%) (76.2%)1211

14 Single Adult Demographics – Median Age Single Adults - MaleSingle Adults - Female Median Age in years

15 Single Adult Demographics – Race & Ethnicity Single Adults - MaleSingle Adults - Female % African/American %57.3% %57.3% %58.4% %59.4% %56.7% %57.1% %56.8% % Hispanic %2.1% %1.4% %1.7%

16 Family Demographics – Annual Prevalence & Percent Male Head of HouseholdAdult Family Members Child Family Members Total (% male) 19971,563 (13.4%) 19981,091 (14.4%) (18.0%) (17.1%) (12.5%)935 (23.2%)1,577 (49.8%) (12.8%)922 (25.2%) 1,558 (51.4%) (14.5%) 914 (25.1%)1,582 (50.3%)

17 Family Demographics – Median Age Head of HouseholdAdult Family Members Child Family Members Median Age in years

18 Demographics of Sheltered Population – Family Households #3 Head of HouseholdAdult Family Members Child Family Members % African/American % % % % %66.6%75.0% %67.1%73.1% %69.2%75.5% % Hispanic %2.3%2.4% %2.9%4.6% % 3.5%

19 Other Characteristics of Sheltered Family Households Employed Heads of Household (%)14.0%15.6%15.2% Family Size (average) Number of Children in Family (average)

20 Movement Across Shelters Within Episodes - Families Out of 2,175 different shelter episodes, 589 (27.1%) episodes involved two shelters; and 13 (0.6%) involved 3 shelters. 97.1% of the shelter episodes – all but 63 of all the episodes – originated at the YIHN program; all but four multiple shelter episodes originated at YIHN.

21 Next Steps Cluster analysis Income patterns Integrate inventory findings with utilization findings Intra-episode movement analysis for single adults

22 Questions or Comments? Contact: Stephen Metraux, Ph.D. Department of Health Policy and Public Health University of the Sciences in Philadelphia 600 South 43 rd Street Philadelphia PA Tel: (215) Fax: (215)