The IPCC’s SRES scenarios EmissionsNarratives Concentrations Climate changeImpacts

The SRES driving forces and storylines Nakicenovic et al. (2000)

Emission scenario’s (SRES) CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O SO 2

The SRES scenarios: global quantifications IPCC (2001)

CO 2 Concentration is Rising

Radiative Forcing

Red range: Models Black curve: Observations Blue range: Models with only natural forcings Warming on Continental Scale

Projected Future Warming

Regional Warming Patterns ºC

Precipitation Changes

Observed data: Hurricane energy closely linked to SST, and increasing (Emanuel, Nature 2005) Hurricane Power (PDI) Sea Surface Temperature (August-October) Global Mean Temperature Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

9 cm 88 cm 21 cm 70 cm Tide Gauges IPCC Sea Level Projections IPCC 2007: cm “these ranges do not include uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks or ice flow processes”

Regional Sea Level Deviations from global mean sea level rise by 2100

Ice sheet response time “is of the order of centuries, not millennia”. Hansen (2005) Volume: 2.8x10 15 m 3 = 7 meters of sea level Long-term Sea Level: Ice Sheets

global change ecosystem human sector Human-environment system human sector Vulnerability: Who, to what? Sectors rely on one or more ecosystem services, they interact, they are vulnerable.

Definition of vulnerability ATEAM, operational definition Vulnerability is the degree to which an ecosystem service is sensitive to global change plus the degree to which the sector that relies on this service is unable to cope with the changes. Vulnerability is a measure of the likelihood of damage of a system exposed to disturbance e.g. by global change drivers. Vulnerability = f(Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity) V = f(E, S, AC)

maps of vulnerability multiple scenarios of change in 21 st century: climate, land use, N deposition modelling framework changes in ecosystem services combined indicators dialogue between stakeholders and scientists The ATEAM methodology Vulnerability Assessment changes in adaptive capacity downscaling SRES

maps of vulnerability modelling framework changes in ecosystem services combined indicators dialogue between stakeholders and scientists changes in adaptive capacity downscaling SRES The ATEAM methodology Vulnerability Assessment multiple scenarios of change in 21 st century: climate, land use, N deposition

Exposure – multiple stresses Climatic change (e.g. temperature rise, change in precipitation pattern) Atmospheric greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes (e.g. CO 2, methane, soot, water vapour) Sea-level rise Pollution (e.g. deposition of nitrogen, phosphorus, sulphur) Land use change (e.g. abandonment of land) Socio-economic change (e.g. markets & welfare)

A2, GCM1 B1, GCM1 B2, GCM1 A1F, GCM2 natvar, GCM1 A1F, GCM1 A2, GCM2 B1, GCM2 B2, GCM A2, GCM1 B1, GCM1 B2, GCM1 A1F, GCM2 natvar, GCM1 A1F, GCM1 A2, GCM2 B1, GCM2 B2, GCM A2, GCM1 B1, GCM1 B2, GCM1 A1F, GCM2 natvar, GCM1 A1F, GCM1 A2, GCM2 B1, GCM2 B2, GCM2... Multiple scenarios to span a large range of possible futures 4 GCMs x (4 SRES + 1 natural variation) = 20 scenarios of global change per time slice

Land use: Protected forest. Baseline scenario, ATEAM scenarios of global change Climate change Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Land use change N deposition change Based on IPCC/SRES A1F, A2, B1, B2 Europe, grid 16 x 16 km, 4 time slices (1990, 2020, 2050, 2080)

The ATEAM sectors AgricultureForestry Carbon Storage & Energy WaterBiodiversity Mountains

Examples of adaptation exposure sensitivity adaptation

Adaptive capacity Knowledge –Awareness –Understanding Will –Trust –Motivation –Values –Urgency Power –Freedom –Equity –Technology –Wealth Countries Provinces Cities Villages Sectors Groups Individuals

Fuzzy Logic Approach Equality Knowledge Urgency Innovation Flexibility Power Awareness Response Action Adaptive Capacity Freedom index Gini co-efficient Literacy rate Enrolment ratio Population density Hazard exposure Dependency Unemployment GDP per capita Infant mortality World trade share Budget surplus

Adaptive Capacity lowhigh