Multi-model intercomparison of the impact of SORCE measurements in climate models TOSCA WG1 Workshop 14-16 May 2012, Berlin K. Matthes (1), F. Hansen (1),

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
1 Sun-Spots und El Nino Ulrich Cubasch Freie Universität Berlin.
Advertisements

Tropospheric response to Solar and Volcanic forcing
Dynamical responses to volcanic forcings in climate model simulations DynVar workshop Matthew Toohey with Kirstin Krüger, Claudia Timmreck, Hauke.
Ocean’s Role in the Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction Yulia A. Zyulyaeva Moscow State University P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow 1/17.
Annular Modes of Extra- tropical Circulation Judith Perlwitz CIRES-CDC, University of Colorado.
REFERENCES Alexander et al (2008): Global Estimates of Gravity Wave Momentum Flux from HIRDLS Observations. JGR 113 D15S18 Ern et al (2004): Absolute Values.
Multi-Model Comparisons of the Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to the SORCE Solar Irradiance Data Set within the SPARC-SOLARIS Activity K. Matthes.
The dynamical response to volcanic eruptions: sensitivity of model results to prescribed aerosol forcing Matthew Toohey 1 Kirstin Krüger 1,2, Claudia Timmreck.
© Crown copyright Met Office Decadal Climate Prediction Doug Smith, Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, Leon Hermanson, Adam Scaife.
SBUV/2 Observations of Atmospheric Response to Solar Variations Matthew DeLand Science Systems and Applications, Inc. (SSAI) Background -SBUV/2 instruments.
The influence of the stratosphere on tropospheric circulation and implications for forecasting Nili Harnik Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences,
Spring Onset in the Northern Hemisphere: A Role for the Stratosphere? Robert X. Black Brent A. McDaniel School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia.
North Atlantic Oscillation Lecture Outline Development of Ideas Westerlies and waves in the westerlies North Atlantic Oscillation basic pattern impact.
Review of Northern Winter 2010/11
AGU 2006 Highlights Le Kuai Dec. 19, 2006 Le Kuai Dec. 19, 2006.
1 Influences of the 11-year sunspot cycle on the stratosphere – and the importance of the QBO Karin Labitzke, Institute for Meteorology, F.U. Berlin Germany.
Solar Forcing on Climate Through Stratospheric Ozone Change Le Kuai.
The influence of solar variability on North Atlantic climate David Jackson*, Jeff Knight*, Adam Scaife*, Sarah Ineson*, Nick Dunstone*, Lesley Gray †,
GLOBAL CHANGES IN OUR ATMOSPHERE: a top-down point of view  Atmospheric Science 101  Structure of atmosphere  Important relationships  The Northern.
Langematz, Oberländer, Kunze Ulrike Langematz, Sophie Oberländer and Markus Kunze Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany The effects.
On the modelling and diagnostics of solar activity effects in the atmosphere On the modelling and diagnostics of solar activity effects in the atmosphere.
Solar Variability and Climate: From Mechanisms to Models
The Influence of Solar Variability on the Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics Speaker : Pei-Yu Chueh Adviser : Yu-Heng Tseng Date : 2010/10/05.
© Crown copyright /0653 Met Office and the Met Office logo are registered trademarks Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1.
Influence of the stratosphere on surface winter climate Adam Scaife, Jeff Knight, Anders Moberg, Lisa Alexander, Chris Folland and Sarah Ineson. CLIVAR.
Using GPS data to study the tropical tropopause Bill Randel National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado “You can observe a lot by just watching”
Solar irradiance variability on hourly to decadal scale from SCIAMACHY and its impact on middle atmospheric ozone and ozone-climate interaction M. Weber,
Links between ozone and climate J. A. Pyle Centre for Atmospheric Science, Dept of Chemistry University of Cambridge Co-chair, SAP 7th ORM, Geneva, 19.
The Influence of Solar Variability on the Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics Speaker : Pei-Yu Chueh Adviser : Yu-Heng Tseng Date : 2010/09/16.
Temperature trends in the upper troposphere/ lower stratosphere as revealed by CCMs and AOGCMs Eugene Cordero, Sium Tesfai Department of Meteorology San.
SPARC SOLARIS & HEPPA Intercomparison Activities: Overview of SOLARIS Activities WCRP Open Science Conference October 2011 Denver, CO, USA Session.
Natural and Anthropogenic Drivers of Arctic Climate Change Gavin Schmidt NASA GISS and Columbia University Jim Hansen, Drew Shindell, David Rind, Ron Miller.
Influences of the 11-year solar cycle on the tropical atmosphere and oceans Stergios Misios and Hauke Schmidt Max Planck Institute for Meteorology TOSCA.
Part II: Where are we going? Like an ocean... The waves crash down... Introducing OCEAN ATMOSPHERE INTERACTION.
Sun-Climate Mechanisms Marvin A. Geller Stony Brook University Stony Brook, NY Marvin A. Geller Stony Brook University Stony Brook, NY
The effects of solar variability on the Earth’s climate Joanna D. Haigh 2010/03/09 Pei-Yu Chueh.
C20C Workshop ICTP Trieste 2004 The Influence of the Ocean on the North Atlantic Climate Variability in C20C simulations with CSRIO AGCM Hodson.
SPARC SOLARIS & HEPPA Intercomparison Activities: Global aspects of the QBO modulation of the solar influence on the stratosphere WCRP Open Science Conference.
Multi-Model Comparisons of the Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to the SORCE Solar Irradiance Data Set within the SPARC-SOLARIS Activity K. Matthes.
Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling - TOSCA WG1 Workshop, May 2012, Berlin Stratospheric and tropospheric.
Seasonal variability of UTLS hydrocarbons observed from ACE and comparisons with WACCM Mijeong Park, William J. Randel, Louisa K. Emmons, and Douglas E.
Long-Term Changes in Northern and Southern Annular Modes Part I: Observations Christopher L. Castro AT 750.
Past and Future Changes in Southern Hemisphere Tropospheric Circulation and the Impact of Stratospheric Chemistry-Climate Coupling Collaborators: Steven.
Sensitivity of Antarctic climate to the distribution of ozone depletion Nathan Gillett, University of East Anglia Sarah Keeley, University of East Anglia.
SPARC SOLARIS & HEPPA Intercomparison Activities: Multi-Model Comparisons of the Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to the SORCE Solar Irradiance.
Only 1 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) observed in SH (2002) but minor warmings occurred in 2009 and 2012 NH events occur in 3 out of every 5.
11-year Solar Signal in Transient Climate Simulations Lesley Gray NCAS University of Oxford Oxford: Dann Mitchell, Scott Osprey Met Office: Neal Butchart,
IAC ETH, 26 October 2004 Sub-project: Effects of Solar irradiance variability on the atmosphere (steady-state sensitivity study) Progress report (final)
How do Long-Term Changes in the Stratosphere Affect the Troposphere?
© Crown copyright Met Office The stratosphere and Seasonal to Decadal Prediction Adam Scaife, Sarah Ineson, Jeff Knight and Andrew Marshall January 2009.
TOSCA workshop, Berlin, 15 May 2012 Comparison of the SSI data sets using observed and simulated evolution of the middle atmosphere during A.
LASP seminar, 18 October 2011, Boulder
Multi-model intercomparison of the impact of SORCE measurements in climate models TOSCA WG1 Workshop May 2012, Berlin K. Matthes (1), J.D. Haigh.
Signature of the positive AO phase in the stratospheric ozone and temperature during boreal winter E. Rozanov 1,2, T. Egorova 1,2, W. Schmutz 1, V. Zubov.
Multi-model intercomparison of the impact of SORCE measurements in climate models K. Matthes (1), J.D. Haigh (2), F. Hansen (1), J.W. Harder (3), S. Ineson.
Dynamical balances and tropical stratospheric upwelling Bill Randel and Rolando Garcia NCAR Thanks to: Qiang Fu, Andrew Gettelman, Rei Ueyama, Mike Wallace,
Modes of variability and teleconnections: Part II Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada Advanced School and Workshop on S2S ICTP,
Dynamical Influence on Inter-annual and Decadal Ozone Change Sandip Dhomse, Mark Weber,
ISSI International Team Meeting
Prepare For The Apocalypse. The largest coronal mass emission (CME) ever detected by scientists breaks off from the sun and hurtles toward the Earth. With.
UTLS Workshop Boulder, Colorado October , 2009 UTLS Workshop Boulder, Colorado October , 2009 Characterizing the Seasonal Variation in Position.
The impact of solar variability and Quasibiennial Oscillation on climate simulations Fabrizio Sassi (ESSL/CGD) with: Dan Marsh and Rolando Garcia (ESSL/ACD),
Boulder, June, 2006 Extremes in Ensemble Simulations of the Maunder Minimum: Midlatitude Cyclones, Precipitation, and Wind speed Christoph Raible (1) M.
The origin of stratospheric ozone in sensitivity studies with EMAC-FUB EGU – European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011 Vienna S. Meul 1), S. Oberländer.
Prepare For The Apocalypse
ENSO-NAO interactions via the stratosphere
Alexey Karpechko & Elisa Manzini
SOLARIS activity report
T. KRUSCHKE, K. MATTHES, W. HUO, M. KUNZE, U. LANGEMATZ, S. WAHL
Strat-trop interaction and Met Office seasonal forecasting
Presentation transcript:

Multi-model intercomparison of the impact of SORCE measurements in climate models TOSCA WG1 Workshop May 2012, Berlin K. Matthes (1), F. Hansen (1), J.D. Haigh (2), J.W. Harder (3), S. Ineson (4), K. Kodera (5,6), U. Langematz (7), D.R. Marsh (8), A.W. Merkel (3), P.A. Newman (9), S. Oberländer (7), A.A. Scaife (4), R.S. Stolarski (9,10), W.H. Swartz (11) (1) Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel (GEOMAR), Kiel, Germany; (2) Imperial College, London, UK; (3) LASP, CU, Boulder, USA; (4) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK; (5) Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan; (6) STEL University of Nagoya, Nagoya, Japan; (7) Freie Universität Berlin, Institute für Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany; (8) NCAR, Boulder USA; (9) NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, USA; (10) John Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA; (11) JHU Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, USA

Introduction & Motivation Model Descriptions & Experimental Design Preliminary results from the multi-model comparison Summary Outlook Outline

„SIM‘s solar spectral irradiance measurements from April 2004 to December 2008 and inferences of their climatic implications are incompatible with the historical solar UV irradiance database […] but are consistent with known effects of instrument sensitivity drifts.“ „To prevent future research following a path of unrealistic solar-terrestrial behavior, the SORCE SIM observations should be used with extreme caution in studies of climate and atmospheric change until additional validation and uncertainty estimates are available.“ Introduction – Lean and DeLand (2012)

1.Do the SIM measurements provide real solar behavior or are they related to instrument drifts? 1.What are the effects of larger UV variability on the atmospheric response? Motivation – 2 Questions

„Top-Down Mechanism“ Gray et al. (2010)

„Top-Down“: Dynamical Interactions and Transfer to the Troposphere 10-day mean wave-mean flow interactions (Max-Min) u Stratospheric waves (direct solar effect) Tropospheric waves (response to stratospheric changes) EPF Matthes et al. (2006)

Significant tropospheric effects (AO-like pattern) result from changes in wave forcing in the stratosphere and troposphere which changes the meridional circulation and surface pressure Matthes et al. (2006) +2K ΔT Modeled Signal near Earth Surface Monthly mean Differences geop. Height (Max-Min) – 1000hPa

Uncertainty in Solar Irradiance Data Solar Max-Min NRLSSI vs. SATIRE Lean et al. (2005)Krivova et al. (2006) larger variation in Krivova data in and nm range SORCE measurements from 2004 through 2007 show very different spectral distribution (in-phase with solar cycle in UV, out-of-phase in VIS and NIR) => Implications for solar heating and ozone chemistry NRLSSI vs. SIM/SORCE

Participating Models Model Description & Experimental Design Caveat: all models used a slightly different experimental setup, so it won’t be possible to do an exact comparison! SOCOL, T42, L39, 0.01 hPa, nudged QBO, see talk by Eugene Rozanov this afternoon

Differences in Experimental Setup

Experimental Design Time series of F10.7cm solar flux SC23 „solar max“ 2004 „solar min“ : “solar max” (declining phase of SC23) 2007: “solar min” (close to minimum of SC23)

January Mean Differences (25N-25S) NRL SSI SORCE Shortwave Heating Rate (K/d)Temperature (K) larger shortwave heating rate and temperature differences for SORCE than NRL SSI data FUB-EMAC and HadGEM only include radiation, not ozone effects

January Mean Differences (25N-25S) Ozone (%)Temperature (K) larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models NRL SSI SORCE

Large Multi Model Mean: all 5 models (FUB-EMAC, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM) Small Multi Model Mean: 3 models (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM) Definition Ensemble Mean

Shortwave Heating Rate Differences January (K/d) Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM) Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM) NRL SSI SORCE NRL SSI shortwave heating rates: 0.2 K/d SORCE shortwave heating rates: 0.9 K/d (4x NRL SSI response)

Temperature Differences January (K) Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM) Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM) NRL SSI temperatures: 0.3 to 0.6 K (stratopause) SORCE temperatures: 1.5 to 1.8 K (5x NRL SSI response) colder polar stratosphere NRL SSI SORCE

Ozone Differences January (%) Large multi-model mean (GEOS, IC2D, WACCM) NRL SSI SORCE larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models

Zonal Wind Differences January (m/s) Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM) Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM) consistently stronger zonal wind signals for SORCE than NRL SSI data wind signal in SORCE data characterized by strong westerly winds at polar latitudes, and significant and similar signals in NH troposphere NRL SSI SORCE

SORCE Differences NH Winter – small ensemble mean Zonal mean zonal wind (m/s) DecemberJanuaryFebruary downward extension of westerly zonal wind signals to the troposphere

SORCE Geopot. Height Differences January (gpdm) 500 hPa100 hPa NAO/AO positive signal during solar max 10 hPa

Solar Cycle & NAO Solar Max: NAO positive (high index) Colder stratosphere => stronger NAO, i.e. stronger Iceland low, higher pressure over Azores  amplified storm track  mild conditions over northern Europe and eastern US => dry conditions in the mediterranean

Solar Cycle & NAO Solar Max: NAO positive (high index) Solar Min: NAO negative (low index) Matthes (2011)

 Consistently larger amplitudes in 2004 to 2007 in solar signals for SORCE than for NRL SSI data in temperature, ozone, shortwave heating rates, zonal winds and geopotential heights  Larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data; height for negative ozone signal in upper stratosphere differs between models  Solar cycle effect on AO/NAO contributes to substantial fraction of typical year-to-year variations and therefore is a potentially useful source of improved decadal climate predictability (Ineson et al. (2011))  Results for the SORCE spectral irradiance data are provisional because of the need for continued degradation correction validation and because of the short length of the SORCE time series which does not cover a full solar cycle Summary

Paper on multi-model comparison to be submitted before 31 st July coordinated sensitivity experiments within the SPARC-SOLARIS Initiative for a typical solar max (2002) and solar min (2008) spectrum from the NRL SSI, SATIRE and the SORCE (and possibly other data or reconstructions? SCIA, COSI?) data to investigate the atmospheric and surface climate response between the models in a more consistent way  SOLARIS/HEPPA workshop 9-12 October 2012 in Boulder Outlook

Estes Park/RMNP, Thank you very much!

Shortwave Heating Rate Differences January (K/d) EMAC-FUBGEOS IC2DHadGEMWACCM NRL SSI SORCE NRL SSI shortwave heating rates: 0.2 to 0.3 K/d SORCE shortwave heating rates: 0.7 to >1.0 K/d (3x NRL SSI response)

Temperature Differences January (K) EMAC-FUBGEOS IC2DHadGEMWACCM NRL SSI SORCE NRL SSI temperatures: 0.5 to 1.0 K (stratopause) SORCE temperatures: 2.5 to 4.0 K (4-5x NRL SSI response) colder polar stratosphere

Ozone Differences January (%) EMAC-FUBGEOS IC2DHadGEMWACCM NRL SSI SORCE larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models

Ozone Differences January (%) Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM) Small multi-model mean (GEOS, IC2D, WACCM) NRL SSI SORCE larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models

Annual Mean Tropical Profiles Temperature (K)Ozone (%) SPARC CCMVal (2010)

SORCE Wind Differences NH Winter EMAC-FUBGEOS IC2DHadGEMWACCM Dec Jan Feb

Zonal Wind Differences January (m/s) EMAC-FUBGEOS IC2DHadGEMWACCM NRL SSI SORCE consistently stronger zonal wind signals for SORCE than NRL SSI data wind signal in SORCE data characterized by strong westerly winds at polar latitudes, and significant and similar signals in NH troposphere

SORCE Wind Differences NH Winter Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM) Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM) Dec Jan Feb

SORCE Geopot. Height Differences January (gpdm) EMAC-FUBGEOS HadGEMWACCM 500 hPa 100 hPa 10 hPa NAO/AO positive signal during solar max strongest for HadGEM and WACCM

SORCE Geopot. Height Differences January (gpdm) Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM) Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM) 500 hPa 100 hPa 10 hPa NAO/AO positive signal during solar max strongest for HadGEM and WACCM

Solar Min Surface Pressure Signal Ineson et al. (2011) Model (HadGEM) Observations (Reanalyses) 90 (95%) significances 25 (50%) of interannual standard deviation

SORCE/SIM measurements from 2004 to 2007: increased solar spectral irradiance at UV and IR wavelengths even as solar and TSI decreased => SIM spectral data into climate models => „the effects of solar variability on temperature throughout the atmosphere may be contrary to current expectations“ (Haigh et al., 2010) => higher solar activity cools Earth But: SIM trends relative to TSI and solar activity during solar min => unlikely to be solar in origin „It is doubtful that simulations of climate and atmospheric change using SIM measurements are indicative of real behavior in the Earth‘s climate and atmosphere.“ (Lean and DeLand, 2012) „SIM‘s solar spectral irradiance measurements from April 2004 to December 2008 and inferences of their climatic implications are incompatible with the historical solar UV irradiance database […] but are consistent with known effects of instrument sensitivity drifts.“ (Lean and DeLand, 2012) „To prevent future research following a path of unrealistic solar-terrestrial behavior, the SORCE SIM observations should be used with extreme caution in studies of climate and atmospheric change until additional validation and uncertainty estimates are available.“(Lean and DeLand, 2012) Motivation