In Northern Mists: Bering Climate-Present and Future James Overland, Phyllis Stabeno, Muyin Wang and Nick Bond NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Historical Global Temperatures J. Hansen

20C3M 11 models have decadal signal PIcntrl 10 models have decadal signal Wang et al., J. Climate, in press 20 th Century Arctic Winter Temperature Anomalies from International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Models Black line is Observations

Change in Bering Sea in 2006 Arctic still warm overall Surface Air Temperature Anomalies February Ice Anomalies

Bering Sea Winter (NDJFM) Ocean Temperature change compared to Under IPCC middle CO2 Scenario

Bering Winter (NDJFM) Ocean Temperature Anomaly (Relative to mean) IPCC A1B emissions scenario

Bering Sea Ice Anomaly (March) relative to Period Mean Ratio (%) of Ice Area Decrease by %

Difference in Sea Level Pressure Minus Salathe, GRL, 2006

Summary Continued warming and loss of sea ice for Bering Sea Must consider large natural variability in near term climate projections Warming trend due to greenhouse gases as large as natural variability by 2030 Climate trajectory is important to ecosystem reorganization-Pollock ride out a cold swing? Most likely, rate of warming will slow for Alaska and Bering Sea, as we were in local temperature maximum

State of the Arctic Report ●A review of was conducted by an international group of 20 scientists who developed a consensus on information content and reliability. ●This Report was conceived as an update to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.