New Hampshire’s Changing Wintertime Climate: Impact on Forestry Practices Jennifer Wurtzel (U. Michigan) Dr. Cameron Wake, Advisor (U. New Hampshire) Research & Discover 2007 Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space University of New Hampshire

Hansen et al. (1988) Global Temperature (meteorological stations)

2.3 o F warming over 103 years 4.3 o F warming over 33 years Time-series represents an aerially weighted average of data from 136 stations. Data from the NOAA-NCDC and Environment Canada Winter Temperature in Northeast US & Canadian Maritimes:

Data From: Winter Recreation and Climate Variability in New Hampshire: Report available online at: DifferenceDifferencePercent Winter Indicator in numberin revenueChange Alpine Skier Days309,495$11.5 million 14% Nordic Skier Days 43,129 $0.7 million 30% Snowmobile Licenses 10,892 $1.0 million 26% Difference Between 5 Cold, Snowy Winters and 5 Warm, Slushy Winters *Slide from Wake & Burakowski Presentation (94, 96, 01, 03, 05)(95, 97, 00, 02, 06)

Some Recent Headlines

Logging in New Hampshire Where? Why? Mud Season Road Postings

Question: How many days each year can logging trucks use the roads between Dec 1 and Mar 31?

Methods Obtain Data & Guidelines Formula Modify Formula (Freeze-Thaw Formula) Apply Freeze-Thaw Formula to locations Analyze Data Sensitivity Analysis

Obtaining Data and Modifying Guidelines Formula Town Records Guidelines –When to post roads in spring –When to lift road bans in spring Modifications (Freeze-Thaw) –When are roads frozen –When are roads thawing

Freeze-Thaw Formula Some terminology Freezing Degree Days (FDD) = 32°F – Daily Mean Temp –When temp ≤ 32°F Melting Degree Days (MDD) = Daily Mean Temp – 29°F –When temp ≥ 29°F Cumulative Freezing Degree Days (CFDD) = ΣFDD Cumulative Melting Degree Days (CMDD) = ΣMDD Road considered frozen when CFDD > 10 Road considered thawed when CMDD > 10

15 days lost since 1970 ~4 days per decade

18 days lost since 1970 ~5 days per decade

Results

Sensitivity Analysis

Conclusions Clear negative trend indicating a loss of over two days per decade Potential need for change in forestry practices Loss of revenue from lumber industry –Presently, $116,000 per lost day Further evidence of changing climate in New England

Remote Sensing –Can be combined with information from logging industry and mills for more accurate view of forestry activity ledaps.nascom.nasa.gov LEDAPS –Remote sensing (Landsat) can be used to analyze rates of forest-cover conversion, disturbance and recovery ledaps.nascom.nasa.gov

Acknowledgements Research & Discover, EOS, UNH Technology Transfer Center, Public Works Departments of New Hampshire Dr. Cameron Wake Dr. George Hurtt EriC Kelsey Michael Routhier Deborah Smolen Special thanks to: