Project Part-financed by the European Union Towards an integrated transport system in the Baltic Sea Region ”FORESIGHT SESSIONS AND EXPECTED RESULTS” Helena Kyster-Hansen Tetraplan

Project Part-financed by the European Union Towards an integrated transport system in the Baltic Sea Region Challenges Societal Challenges (Climate Change, Peak Oil, Competitiveness, Sustainability...) Linking Transport Policy on different levels with other Policy (Research etc.) Decision-making under deep uncertainty Forecasts on what will happen in 40 years are very likely to be wrong

Project Part-financed by the European Union Towards an integrated transport system in the Baltic Sea Region Foresight processes Foresight is a conceptual framework for a number of forward- looking approaches of informed decision-making that include long-term considerations (Miles 2008). Answer to a lack of governance strategies dealing with complex and unpredictable transformation patterns. They focus on the increasing need of both economy and policy for generating anticipatory strategies and future scenarios in the present for the present.

Project Part-financed by the European Union Towards an integrated transport system in the Baltic Sea Region Application of Foresight Transparent structured process for decision- making Forward-looking attitude – anticipative Provoking, creative and motivating Participative approach Mutual learning and strategic dialogue Reaching consensus Linking to wider socio-economic issues Coordinated/coherent action

Project Part-financed by the European Union Towards an integrated transport system in the Baltic Sea Region Two basic elements of Foresight Knowledge about the present Alternative futures What if Exploratory approach:

Project Part-financed by the European Union Towards an integrated transport system in the Baltic Sea Region Normative approach: Present actions Alternative futures What to do „possible future”

Project Part-financed by the European Union Towards an integrated transport system in the Baltic Sea Region Three Facets of Foresight Thanks to Klaus Kubeczko & Doris Wilhelmer