Political Culture and Democratization Preliminary thoughts for chapter 8 of Approaching Democracy: Research Methods in Comparative Politics Michael Coppedge

Relevant individual Attitudes: Diffuse vs. specific support, Confidence in institutions and Leaders, interpersonal trust, Tolerance, moderation

Relevant individual attitudes Determinants of attitudes: Age, education, income, ethnicity, religion, party, inequality, etc.

Relevant individual attitudes Determinants of attitudes Individual participation: Voting, contacting, donating Petitioning, demonstrating, Striking, violence

Relevant individual attitudes Determinants of attitudes Individual participation Collective identities: Nationality, ethnicity Religion, tribe, class, Party…

Relevant individual attitudes Determinants of attitudes Individual participation Collective identities Elite orientations: Ideology, programs, Moderation, ambitions Polarization

Relevant individual attitudes Determinants of attitudes Individual participation Collective identities Elite orientations Policies

Relevant individual attitudes Determinants of attitudes Individual participation Collective identities Elite orientations Policies The regime: Level, change, longevity

Relevant individual attitudes Determinants of attitudes Individual participation Collective identities Elite orientations Policies Regime Institutions And Processes

Forms of direct action by row actor to replace column actor MilitaryMassExecutiveLegisla- ture Courts MilitaryCivil warDirty warMilitary coup MassinsurgencyCivil warElection; protest; Uprising protest ExecutiveManipula- tion of promotions Police action or repression Resigna- tion Presi- dential coup Legisla- ture Impeach- ment CourtsImpeach- ment

If this actor takes direct action Democratic outcomes Undemocratic outcomes MassFailed or repressed uprising or insurgency; constitutional succession after successful uprising; resignation Unconstitutional succession after uprising or insurgency; violence provokes excessive repression, coup, or civil war ExecutiveFailed presidential coup; constitutional dissolution; resignation Successful presidential coup; excessive repression MilitaryRepression, dirty war, military coup, back presidential coup, civil war LegislatureImpeachment, vote of no confidence CourtsActions are constitutional by definition

Democracy In principle The actual regime institutions leaders policies Complete independence executive congress courts military Government performance Mass support for…

Complete independence: no change

Connected mass attitudes

Mass attitudes converge

Connected elite positions

Elite orientations converge

Bottom-up influence

Elite orientations converge to mass average

Top-down influence

Mass converges to elite average

…or to the most influential elite actor

More bottom-up than top-down

Elites converge to mass position faster than mass converges toward elite position

More top-down than bottom-up

Mass converges to elite average faster than elites converge toward mass average

Government performance affects mass support

Mass support trends in direction of exogenous performance

Government performance affects elite orientations

Elite orientations trend in direction of exogenous performance

Positive performance exogenous, all else endogenous

Eventually, all actors trend in the direction of steady positive performance because it’s exogenous

Negative performance exogenous, all else endogenous

Eventually, all actors trend in the direction of steady negative performance because it’s exogenous

Variable performance exogenous, all else endogenous

Without a steady trend, actors that are only indirectly influenced by performance may never converge with the others

Recap We should expect no strong relationship between mass attitudes toward democracy and regimes because –Other kinds of attitudes may matter more –Attitudes don’t matter unless they are translated into action, even if indirectly –Their impact on regimes is necessarily mediated –Snapshots and cross-sections can’t capture the dynamic, endogenous relationships

Implications for research Test for associations between attitudes and more proximate outcomes on the pathways to regime change –Election of semiloyal leaders –Mass support for violent, direct action –Elite beliefs about mass reactions to moves that create, preserve, or undermine democracy. How constrained do they feel? Measure mass & elite attitudes frequently Test for convergences, controlling for exogenous factors