Transportation and Emissions in Chile March, 2003 Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP) Cambio Climatico y Desarrollo (CC&D) Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)

 Climate Science Trends  Latest IPCC Findings  Transportation & Climate Change  Chile’s Contribution to CO2 Emissions  Conclusions & Next Steps Introduction

n Global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by ~ 1°F. n 1990s warmest decade on record, 1998 warmest yr. n Global avg. sea level rose 4-8” in 20th century. n Present CO2 concentration highest in 20 million years. Rate of increase is unprecedented during at least the past 20,000 years. n “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” Latest IPCC Findings

 Average surface temperature is predicted to increase by 2.5 °F °F  The projected warming rate is the highest in at least 10,000 years  The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated that sea level rise would be 20 cm by 2030 and 1-m by 2100 Latest IPCC Findings

 Key factors  Travel activity (VMT, ton-miles)  Mode split  Vehicle energy intensity (mpg, loading)  Fuel carbon content (lifecycle)  In Chile, the transportation sector represents largest source of man-made GHG emissions - approximately 28% Transportation & Climate Change

 Pew Center for Global Climate Change: Transport GHG emissions in Chile could increase by 117% in the ‘business-as-usual’ (BAU) scenario ( ) versus 42% in the low emissions scenario (LES) -BAU = no strong actions to curb GHG emissions -LES = policies to improve public transportation and introduce cleaner, more efficient vehicles Background

Passenger Travel by Mode  In Greater Santiago, between 1977 and 1991, car trips increased by ~6% while bus trips declined by ~18%  1 in 10 people in Santiago, now own cars  Passenger transportation accounts for about 2/3 of transportation sector GHG emissions

Chile’s CO 2 Emissions by Mode (2000)

Emissions from Passenger Cars

This project, with its emphasis on mitigating CO2 from the transportation sector, can:  Quantify the potential CO2 benefit of travel demand, vehicle efficiency and other transportation policies  Set a precedent for the role transportation projects must play in addressing the challenge of climate change Conclusions