The Dual War On Terror James Madsen Stanford University 2005 SIIS/IDL Conference April Yaroslavl Demidov State University

Overview I. Introduction II. Traditional v. New Terrorism III. Classifying Chechnya and Hezbollah IV. The U.S. War on Terror V. The Russian War on Terror VI. The Need for Cooperation

Solidarity?

Traditional v. New Terrorism TRADITIONALTERRORISM 1. Political 2. Local 3. Coercive NEW TERRORISM 1. Religious 2. Transnational 3. Catastrophic

Chechnya v. Hezbollah Chechen terrorism: political, local, and coercive Chechen terrorism: political, local, and coercive Dubrovka Theater Dubrovka Theater Beslan School No. 1 Beslan School No. 1 Hezbollah’s terrorism: religious, transnational, and catastrophic Hezbollah’s terrorism: religious, transnational, and catastrophic The problem with “catastrophic” The problem with “catastrophic”

The U.S. War on Terror The U.S. v. Hezbollah The U.S. v. Hezbollah Political pressure Political pressure Economic pressure Economic pressure Military pressure Military pressure The U.S. & Chechnya The U.S. & Chechnya “We resolutely condemn all terrorist acts and senseless violence against civilians in Chechnya…” “We resolutely condemn all terrorist acts and senseless violence against civilians in Chechnya…” “…We continue to urge a political settlement of the conflict.” “…We continue to urge a political settlement of the conflict.”

The Russian War on Terror Russia & Hezbollah Russia & Hezbollah Iran/Syria Iran/Syria Military aid Military aid Economic aid Economic aid Political aid Political aid Hezbollah’s benefits Hezbollah’s benefits Military aid Military aid Financial aid Financial aid Geo-political aid Geo-political aid Cost/benefit analysis Cost/benefit analysis

The Russian War on Terror (Con’t) Russia v. Chechnya Russia v. Chechnya Military offensive Military offensive Economic commitment Economic commitment Political costs Political costs Future conflict Future conflict

The Need for Cooperation Cooperation thus far Cooperation thus far Diplomatic, intelligence, military Diplomatic, intelligence, military An evolving threat An evolving threat Chechnya and al Qaeda Chechnya and al Qaeda Policy proposals Policy proposals U.S. – ground assistance, economic assistance U.S. – ground assistance, economic assistance Russia – non-fungible aid, Middle Eastern influence Russia – non-fungible aid, Middle Eastern influence