Future challenges for integrated assessment modelling Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Historic SO 2, NO x and NH 3 emissions , EU-25

/dev/tty> International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) RAINS 1.1 (1984) ========================================================= RRRR AA III NN N SSSS R R A A I N N N S RRRR AAAAAA I N N N SSSS R R A A I N N N S R R AA AA III N NN SSSS ========================================================= Please treat all results with caution! Hit RETURN to continue …

20 years assessment of forest soil acidification 1984 and : RAINS 1.1 assessment for : CAFE assessment for 2010 Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads

Historic SO 2, NO x and NH 3 emissions , EU-25

Functions of integrated assessment models (1) Integration over cause-effects chain –Multi-disciplinary approach (since RAINS 1.1) Balancing of measures –Cost-effectiveness optimization (since 2 nd Sulphur Protocol) Integration over multiple benefits –Multi-effect approach (since Gothenburg-protocol) Integration over scales –Inclusion of health impacts (since CAFE)

Functions of integrated assessment models Integration over cause-effects chain –Multi-disciplinary approach (since RAINS 1.1) Balancing of measures –Cost-effectiveness optimization (since 2 nd Sulphur Protocol) Integration over multiple benefits –Multi-effect approach (since Gothenburg-protocol) Integration over scales –Inclusion of health impacts (since CAFE) Integration of multiple policy areas –Link to climate policy, agriculture

Multi-pollutant measures (1) Structural measures: –Energy savings, efficiency improvements, bans: all pollutants ↓ –Increased use of natural gas: CO 2, SO 2, VOC, NO x, PM ↓ CH 4 ↑ –Biomass: CO 2 ↓ VOC, PM, CH 4 ↑ Stationary sources: –SCR, SNCR: NO x, CO ↓, NH 3, N 2 O, CO 2 ↑ –Fluidized bed combustion: SO 2, NO x ↓, N 2 O ↑ –Advanced residential combustion: VOC, PM, CO, CH 4 ↓ –FGD: SO 2, PM ↓ CO 2 ↑ –IGCC: CO 2, SO 2, NO x, PM ↓ –CHP: all pollutants ↓ Mobile sources: –Euro-standards: NO x, VOC, PM, CO ↓ NH 3, N 2 O ↑ –Low sulfur fuels: SO 2, PM ↓ –Diesel: CO 2, VOC ↓, PM, NO x, SO 2 ↑

Multi-pollutant measures (2) Agricultural sources: –Low emission pig housing – NH 3, CH 4 ↓ N 2 O ↑ –Covered storage of slurry – NH 3 ↓ CH 4 ↑ –Injection of manure – NH 3 ↓ N 2 O ↑ –Anaerobic digestion (biogas) – CH 4, N 2 O ↓ CO 2 ↑ NH 3 ↓ ↑ Other sources –Gas recovery and flaring: CH 4 ↓ CO 2, PM, VOC, SO 2, NO x, CO ↑ –Gas recovery and re-use: CH 4 ↓ CO 2 ↑ –Improving flaring efficiency: PM, VOC, NO x, SO 2, CO ↓ –Waste incineration: CH 4 ↓ CO 2 ↑ –Gas recovery from wastewater treatment: CH 4 ↓ CO 2 ↑ In total approx 500 measures with multi-pollutant impacts considered in GAINS

Air pollutant emissions as a function of CO 2 mitigation EU-25, 2020

Net costs for further air pollution control as a function of CO 2 mitigation Ambition level of Thematic Strategy

Population, GDP and coal use for power generation in Andra Pradesh (projection provided by TERI)

Emissions from electricity generation Andra Pradesh, 2020, relative to 2000 With advanced end-of-pipe emission control technologies Level in 2000 With current emission standards

Costs of electricity generation Andra Pradesh, 2020

Emissions from electricity generation Andra Pradesh, 2020, relative to 2000 with IGCC at new plants after 2015 (without carbon capture)

Costs of electricity generation Andra Pradesh, 2020 Uncertainty range quoted by IPCC

Expected impacts of the Nitrate Directive and optimized feed on EU-25 NH 3 emissions

Functions of integrated assessment models Integration over cause-effects chain –Multi-disciplinary approach (since RAINS 1.1) Balancing of measures –Cost-effectiveness optimization (since 2 nd Sulphur Protocol) Integration over multiple benefits –Multi-effect approach (since Gothenburg-protocol) Integration over scales –Inclusion of health impacts (since CAFE) Integration of multiple policy areas –Link to climate policy, agriculture Integration with economic impacts –More comprehensive quantification of human welfare

Per-capita NO x emissions

Per-capita NO x emissions

Integrating economic development not as a slide Conventional cost concept considers investments in clean air as a welfare loss – heavy argument in policy debate (e.g., EU for CAFE, developing countries, US for climate) –Not all investments do lead to loss in GDP (recycling) –Non-monetary aspects of welfare excluded Integrated assessment can come up with additional quantified indicators that constitute parts of welfare (life expectancy, nitrogen pollution in water, etc.) Not necessarily based on monetary evaluation of benefits This could eventually allow a more comprehensive measure for welfare – and a re-evaluation of the value of environmental investments

Conclusions