U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Circum-Arctic Petroleum Resource Appraisal: Assessment in Circumstances of Extreme Uncertainty USGS IPY Kickoff Event March 30, 2007 Brenda Pierce, USGS Energy Resources Program

from L.P. White, R.S. Bishop and D.L. Gautier, 2005

GOALS FOR THE CIRCUM-ARCTIC RESOURCE APPRAISAL  Comprehensive (portfolio effect)  Full range of uncertainty  Objective and unbiased  Transparent and reproducible  Compatible with our previous work  Results in a cost/supply context What is the potential for additions to petroleum reserves from the Arctic?

ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES ARE LIMITED IN UNEXPLORED BASINS  Discovery History Analysis  Prospect counting  Reservoir modeling  Geologic synthesis  Analog modeling

Science in Support of the CARA  New Map of Arctic Sedimentary Prisms  Classification of Arctic Petroleum Systems  Basin Evolution Chart  Analog Database  Analog Assessment Methodology  Full-cycle Resource Analysis Model

Cooperating Organizations  Minerals Management Service  Geological Survey of Canada  Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland  Norwegian Petroleum Directorate  Individual Russian Scientists  Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe  Members of the World Energy Consortium

DEVELOP BACKGROUND INFORMATION GEOLOGIC ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT VOLUME & FLOW ASSESSMENT FULL CYCLE SIMULATION DEFINE ASSESSMENT UNITS DEVELOP ANALOG APPROACH DEVELOP ANALOG MODELS FOR VOLUME & FLOW INTEGRATED EVALUATION ALGORITHM

NE GREENLAND SIGNIFICANT:  Geologic uncertainty  Technical uncertainty  Economic uncertainty Category 3 sparse seismic, no wells

North Danmarkshavn Salt Basin

Thank you