Hubbert Curve Group 1 Jessica Baker, Kathryn Sausser, Brian Nguyen

- Developed in 1956 by geophysicist Marion King Hubbert. - It is the approximation of the production rate of a resource over time. - It has a parallel decreasing function that involves a logistic decline followed by a fall to zero. - Can be either use for oil and the natural gas reserves as a whole. - The Hubbert curve graph consists of three stages: > Lag > Log > Plateau Hubbert Curve

Hubbert Peak Theory - Hubbert is known for his studies in the magnitude of oils fields and natural gas reserves. >He concluded that he can predict, any given geographical area, the rate of production reserves over time on either oil or natural gas that will resemble a bell curve. This bell curve prediction is called the Hubbert Peak Theory. - Hubbert predicted that between 1965 and the 1970s, the petroleum reserves would reach the peak.

Peak Oil - The point in time when the maximum rate of extraction is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline. extraction - Any finite resource will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output. - Peak oil is usually confused with oil depletion Peak oil --- point of maximum production Depletion --- a period of falling reserves and supply - In other words, oil peak is about price not supply.

Evidence that supports the hubbert peak theory. - Marion King Hubbert predicted that the overall petroleum production would peak in the United States between 1965 and the 1970s. - Between October 17, 1973, and March 1974, the OAPEC had decrease their shipments of petroleum to the United States. This caused an increase in petroleum price. > Therefore Hubbert became famous when his prediction was proved correctly in the 1970s.

Does everyone agree with that evidence? - No, only some. the predictions of an imminent peak have been so far, incorrect. - Not everyone agrees that the peak in 1970 was the actual peak in oil production. some believed that the peak was caused by the Israeli-Arab War.

- Oil is 41% of the world’s total fossil fuel consumption, the oil peak indicates that the price of the oil will increase over time. - Oil/petroleum and natural gas are used to make: plastics, paints, pharmaceuticals, fertilizers, electronic components, tires, etc. > This can cause almost every company in the United States to cut half of their production, decrease salaries, and reduce the amount of workers (unemployment is inevitable). - Things like suburbia will not be able to function in the community since there will be almost no transportation (cars, trucks, anything that uses oil) that will be available for the people. - We will not run out of oil immediately. We will eventually run out of easily accessible oil and prices will rise when there is a need for the harder to access oil. If production does peak, what would be the impact to the US and Globally? Does it mean that we will run out of oil immediately.

How prepared is the US for a peak in production? Other countries? - The US would need to stop heavily relying on oil and lessen the energy needed for transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, and electricity. We would need to switch from being petroleum-based society to sustainable energy society. - Countries that use a lot of oil for purposes other than manufacturing are likely to be vulnerable to recession.

How well educated are people regarding peak oil? - A lot of people acknowledge that oil, natural gas, and coal(fossil fuel) will run out eventually, but they do not know when and what will be the consequences when fossil fuel is depleted. > Things like plastic, medicines, fertilizers, etc. will be very scarce since they are all made from oil/petroleum. - Many people never even heard of the peak oil and only a few people did.

Conclusion - The Hubbert curve is used to predict the production rate of a resource over time. > Things like oil/petroleum, natural gases, and coal (fossil fuels) - At first, a lot of people criticized on Marion Hubbert’s work since it sounded unethical, but not until around the 1970s, the OAPEC had stopped petroleum shipments to the United States that cause the oil peak.