LOAD FORECASTING T SRINIVAS MANAGER SRLDC

MAIN COMPONENTS OF THE GRID  GENERATION  LOAD  TRANSMISSION NETWORK DETAILS

PERFORMANCE INDICES  SYSTEM FREQUENCY  SYSTEM VOLTAGE  HEALTH OF TRANSMISSION NETWORK  SYSTEM RESERVES & REDUNDANCY  CAPABILITY TO OVERCOME A CONTINGENCY

MAIN FUNCTIONS OF A GRID CONTROL ROOM  Load Generation Balance  Merit Order Operation  Inter-regional/Intra-regional Exchanges  Maintenance of Grid Security  System Restoration/Revival

LOAD GENERATION BALANCE

TYPICAL LOAD CURVE OF SR WINTER MONSOON SUMMER EVENING PEAK WEATHERCONSUMPTION

LOAD DIVERSITY The unique load curve of different identities due to varied nature of load / requirements results in the overall load diversity.

Why Load forecasting? Load forecasting helps an electric utility to make important decisions including decisions on purchasing and generating electric power, load switching, and infrastructure development. Load forecasts are extremely important for energy suppliers, ISOs,.nancial institutions, and other participants in electric energy generation, transmission, distribution, and markets.

Load forecasting Categories Short Term Load Forecasting from one hour to one week Medium term Load Forecasting from a week to a year Long term Load Forecasting longer than a year

G1 G2 SERC SLDC SEB/STU State Govt. RLDC REB CTU CERC Central Govt. CEA ISTS ISGS Load L1L2 Intra State System IEGC to Operate on the periphery X=- GLG DEMAND ESTIMATION

Availability = Own Generation (+) Entitlement from Grid (+) Bilaterals

DEMAND ESTIMATION IEGC Chapter –6 Para 6.3 Sub-Para Each State / SLDC shall develop methodologies / mechanisms for estimation (MW, MVAR and MWH) for operational purposes. The data for estimation shall also include Load Shedding, Power Cuts etc. SLDCs shall also maintain Historical Database for Demand Estimation.

DEMAND ESTIMATION Load Restriction = Demand (Requirement) (Load shedding) (-) Availability

ENTITLEMENTS = Fixed Shares + Unallocated Shares

FIXED SHARES Allocation to States from the Central Sector Stations in terms of Percentages which generally remain fixed. UNALLOCATED SHARES Allocation to States from Central Sector Stations in terms of Percentages which are changed on seasonal basis and / or under typical conditions as decided by Govt. of India.

AGRICULTURE SUPPLY TIMINGS : PUNJAB GROUP – A NIGHT ( Hrs)10 Hrs Avg. DAY ( Hrs)16 Hrs Avg. ( Hrs) GROUP – B NIGHT ( Hrs)10 Hrs Avg. DAY ( Hrs)16 Hrs Avg. ( Hrs) GROUP – C(BORDER AREAS) ( Hrs)10 Hrs Avg. STATE AVG Hrs Groups are Rotated on Weekly Basis LOAD DESPATCHING

Barring the period, 1800 – 2200 Hrs, Supply is given in any seven hour stretch as decided by the respective zone. The segregation / Load Staggering is done at zonal level and monitored closely. State Avg. 7 Hrs. AGRICULTURE SUPPLY TIMINGS : RAJASTHAN

AGRICULTURE SUPPLY TIMINGS : HARAYANA GROUP – I ( Hrs) 9 Hrs Avg. ( Hrs) ( Hrs) GROUP – II ( Hrs) 7 Hrs Avg. AMBALA, KARNAL, KURUKSHETRA, SONEPAT, YAMUNANAGAR, JIND & SIRSA :

AGRICULTURE SUPPLY TIMINGS : HARAYANA GROUP – I ( Hrs) 10 Hrs Avg. ( Hrs) ( Hrs) GROUP – II ( Hrs) 8 Hrs Avg. State Avg. 8.5 Hrs. Groups are rotated on weekly basis SINGLE CROP AREAS COMPRISING BHIWANI, NARNAUL, GURGAON, ROHTAK & FARIDABAD CIRCLE :

COORDINATES/ RLDC REGIONAL GRID IPP STATE GENR. SHARE CENTRAL

AGENCIES PARTICIPATING IN THE SCHEDULING PROCESS OF NORTHERN REGION NTPC 1. Singrauli 2. Rihand 3. Unchahar 4. Dadri (Th) 5. Dadri (GF) 6. Dadri (LF) 7. Anta (GF) 8. Anta (LF) 9. Auraiya (GF) 10. Auraiya (LF) NHPC 1. Bairasiul 2. Salal 3. Tanakpur 4. Chamera-1 5. Chamera-2 6. Uri NPC 1. NAPS 2. RAPS – 3 3. RAPS - 4 Others 1. NJPC

AGENCIES PARTICIPATING IN THE SCHEDULING PROCESS OF NORTHERN REGION BBMB 1. Bhakra 2. Dehar 3. Pong STATES 1. Punjab 2. Haryana 3. Rajasthan 4. Delhi 5. Uttar Pradesh 6. Uttaranchal 7. Himachal Pradesh 8. Jammu Kashmir 9. U.T. Chandigarh OTHERS 1.Eastern Region 2.Western Region 3.Railways 4.NFF

AGENCIES PARTICIPATING IN THE SCHEDULING PROCESS OF NORTHERN REGION Generating Stations =23 States =9 Others =4 (+)

SCHEDULING AND DESPATCH PROCEDURE  ALL ISGS STATIONS WITH CAPACITIES AND ALLOCATED SHARES TO BE LISTED OUT  BY 1000 HRSEACH ISGS ADVISES RLDC OF ITS EX-POWER PLANT MW AND MWH CAPABILITIES ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT DAY i.e. 00:00 TO 24:00 HRS  BY 1100 HRSBENEFICIARIES ADVISED OF ABOVE INFORMATION ALONG WITH THEIR ENTITLEMENTS  BY 1500 HRSSLDCs ADVISE RLDC THEIR DRAWAL SCHEDULE FOR EACH OF THE ISGS IN WHICH THEY HAVE SHARE  BY 1700 HRSRLDC CONVEYS THE 'EX-POWER PLANT DESPATCH SCHEDULE (IN MW)' TO EACH ISGS AND 'NET DRAWAL SCHEDULE (IN MW)' TO EACH BENEFICIARY (AFTER DEDUCTING TRANSMISSION LOSSES)  RLDC TO ENSURE SCHEDULES ARE OPERATIONALLY REASONABLE WITH RESPECT TO RAMPING UP/RAMPING DOWN RATES AND THE MINIMUM TO MAXIMUM RATIO OF GENERATION.

SCHEDULING AND DESPATCH PROCEDURE (Contd.)  ISGS/SLDCs TO INFORM ANY MODIFICATIONS IN FORESEEN CAPABILITY/STATION WISE DRAWAL SCHEDULE TO RLDC BY 2200 HRS. RLDC TO ISSUE FINAL SCHEDULE IN SUCH CASES BY 2300 HRS.  REVISIONS IN SCHEDULE PERMITTED DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. SUCH REVISIONS EFFECTIVE ONE HOUR AFTER THE FIRST ADVISE IS RECEIVED BY THE RLDC.  RLDC TO CHECK FOR TRANSMISSION CONSTRAINTS, IF ANY, BEFORE FINALISING THE DRAWAL/DESPATCH SCHEDULE.  ON COMPLETION OF THE OPERATING DAY, SCHEDULE, AS FINALLY IMPLEMENTED DURING THE DAY SHALL BE ISSUED BY RLDC. THIS WOULD BE THE DATUM FOR COMMERCIAL ACCOUNTING.  RLDC TO PROPERLY DOCUMENT ALL THE ABOVE INFORMATION EXCHANGED BETWEEN ISGS AND RLDC, CONSTITUENTS AND RLDC ETC.  ALL RECORDS IN RESPECT OF ABOVE OPEN TO ALL CONSTITUENTS FOR ANY CHECKING/VERIFICATION FOR A PERIOD OF 20 DAYS.

Time Schedule of interaction between ISGS, SLDCs and NRLDC for Scheduling TimeInteractionPurpose A. Day ahead Scheduling: By 1000 hrsISGS to NRLDC Availability forecast, time-wise for next day By 1100 hrsNRLDC to SLDCs Anticipated ISGS wise entitlement for the next day By 1500 hrsSLDCs to NRLDC ISGS wise requisition, demand, bilateral arrangements etc. anticipated for the next day By 1700 hrsNRLDC to ISGS/ SLDCs Final generation schedule to ISGS & net drawal schedule to SLDCs for the next day By 2200 hrsAny ISGS/ SLDC to NRLDC Changes in availability/ requisition, if any for the next day By 2300 hrsNRLDC to all ISGS/ SLDCs Revised final generation schedule to ISGS & net drawal schedule to SLDCs respectively for the next day B. Running day Scheduling: Any time “a”Any ISGS/ SLDC to NRLDC Changes in availability / requisition, if any for rest of the day Within next one and half hour of “a” NRLDC to all ISGS/ SLDCs Revised generation schedule to ISGS & net drawal schedule to SLDCs respectively for rest of the day ISGS:Inter State Generating Stations SLDC:State Load Despatch Centre

MERIT ORDER OPERATION

Components of inter-utility tariff (Pre – ABT Mechanism)  Fixed charges  Interest on loans  Depreciation  O & M charges  Return on equity  Interest on Working Capital  Energy charges (fuel cost)  Incentives  Surcharge & other levies  No charge for reactive energy

TENTATIVE COST FOR NTPC THERMAL STATIONS FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE 2002 Station Fixed Cost Rs. Cr/yr (1) Average Fixed Cost Rs. Cr/day (2) Average Fixed Cost P / KWh (3) Variable Base Cost P / KWh (4) Variable FPA P / KWh (5) Total Variable Base Cost P / KWh (6) Composite Cost P / KWh (3) + (6) Singrauli Rihand Unchahar – I Anta GPS Auraiya GPS * Dadri GPS * Dadri (T) Unchahar – II

Payment to Inter State Generating Stations (ISGS) from beneficiaries under Availability Based Tariff (ABT)  Capacity charges  Energy charges  Unscheduled Interchange (UI)

Energy Charges (paise/kwh) for Central Sector stations (June 2002 level) Sl. No.Power StationRate (Paise / KWh) 1.Salal Tanakpur Singrauli Rihand Anta/Auraiya/Dadri GT Unchahar Dadri (Thermal)146.25

FREQUENCY vs UI PRICE FREQUENCY PAISE/UNIT 49 HZ 50.5 HZ 49.5 HZ 50 HZ 49.5 HZ CORRESPONDS TO RS.2.80 UI PRICE AND FREQUENCY

Singrauli & Rihand Pre ABT(Dec 01-Nov 02)Post ABT(Dec 02-Nov 03) Average MW Declared CapabilityInjection Schedule Unchahar-1 & Pre ABT(Dec 01-Nov 02)Post ABT(Dec 02-Nov 03) Average MW Declared CapabilityInjection Schedule Dadri (T) Pre ABT(Dec 01-Nov 02) Post ABT(Dec 02-Nov 03) Average MW Declared CapabilityInjection schedule Anta, Auraiya & Dadri Pre ABT(Dec 01-Nov 02) Post ABT(Dec 02-Nov 03) Average MW Declared CapabiltyInjection Schedule

INTER REGIONAL EXCHANGES

HCDC Sasaram B-B HCDC Vindhyachal B-B HCDC Gazuaka B-B HCDC Talcher Kolar HCDC Chandrapur B-B Inter Regional HVDC Links

100 MW ISGS Allocations 0000 to 2400 hrs 100 MW WBSEB to J&K 0000 to 2400hrs- PTC 50 MW GRIDCO to DTL-NVVNL 140 MW WBSEB to DTL 0000 to 2400-PTC 100 MW DVC to HVPNL 0000 to 1700 & 2300 to 2400 hrs-PTC 10 MW GRIDCO to HVPNL 0000 to 1700 & 2300 to 2400 hrs-NVVNL MW DVC to DTL- PTC 450

SYSTEM SECURITY

ECONOMY OF REQUISITIONING FROM GAS STATIONS ON LIQUID FIRING Energy Charges (Liquid Firing) AntaRs. 3.20/unit AuraiyaRs. 3.00/unit DadriRs /unit (approx) UI Rates 49.5 HzRs HzRs HzRs HzRs HzRs Hz & BelowRs Tariff Regulation – Economy and Efficiency vis-à-vis Security

Thank You

NR BILATERAL AGREEMENTS

SOUTHERN REGIONAL GRID ▀ Centre Generating Stations in the Region are Ramagundam Super Thermal Power Stn. : 2,600 MW (200x x4) Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd. - II : 1,470 MW (210 x 7) Madras Atomic Power Station : 390 MW (170 x X1) Kaiga Atomic Power Station : 440 MW (220x2) NLC EXPANSION TPS 1 : 420 MW (210X2) TALCHER STAGE II : 2000 MW (500X4) situated in ER ▀ Beneficiaries in southern Region are. ANDHRA PRADESH KARNATAKA KERALA TAMIL NADU Union Territory of Pondicherry NLCMINES GOA has share of 100MW from RSTPS

CONTROL AREAS REGIONAL GRID SEB’S GRID CS -3 CS - 2 CS - 1 CENTRAL SHARE STATE GENR STATE IPP DISTR -B DISTR - A DISTR - C SEB - A SEB -CSEB -B SLDC COORDINATES DIRECTS RLDC COORDINATES