ACADEMICS Feb 2012 This brief is classified: UNCLASSIFIED As of: 31 Jan 12 CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT

UNCLASSIFIED Purpose and Agenda Purpose To provide an overview of campaign assessments, the campaign assessment framework and its processes. Agenda –References Multinational SOP (MNF SOP v. 2.7) U.S. Doctrine (Joint Publications 2-0, 3-0, and 5-0) Other Assessments Concepts –What is Campaign Assessment? –The Assessment Framework –Campaign Assessment – An Example –Cross Functional Elements –Summary 2

UNCLASSIFIED References: MNFSOP, v2.7 3 “CTF Assessment of Operations” MNFSOP v2.6 - Part B – Chapter 2 – Annex B – Appendix 6: MDMP-M

UNCLASSIFIED Communicate (End State) Monitor Assess Plan Direct The Commander’s Decision Cycle is a process that depicts how command and staff elements determine required CTF command actions, codify them in directives, execute them, and monitor their results. Underlying this cycle is a continuous learning process that is assessing the effectiveness of CTF plans and actions. It is designed to be End State Focused and based upon a Learning-Adaptive process during execution of plans / orders. OPERATIONAL LEVEL “Where are we in relation to where we want to go?” OPERATIONAL LEVEL “Where are we in relation to where we want to go?” Commander’s Decision Cycle 4

UNCLASSIFIED Military Decision Making Process - Multinational # 1 - INITIATION & SCOPING ONGOING CENTRAL PROCESS 1.Commander’s Appreciation OIPE Framing the Problem 2. Operational Design # 2 – MISSION ANALYSIS # 3 – COA DEVELOPMENT # 4 – COA ANALYSIS AND GAMING # 5 – COA COMPARISON # 6 – COA APPROVAL AND COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE # 7 – PLAN / ORDER DEVELOPMENT # 8 – EXECUTION, ASSESSMENT, AND FOLLOW-ON ADAPTATION (BRANCH / SEQUELS) 5 Assessment - a constant consideration; begins with Mission Analysis

UNCLASSIFIED What is Campaign Assessment? Assessment is a process that measures progress of the CTF operations and actions as they relate to: –Strategic guidance –Military end state attainment –Mission accomplishment Commanders continuously assess the operational environment and the progress of operations, and compare them to their initial vision and intent. Commanders adjust operations based on their assessment to ensure objectives are met and the military end state is achieved 6

UNCLASSIFIED Levels of Military Operations and Assessment SOURCE: JP 5-0 7

UNCLASSIFIED Campaign Assessment Framework CCTF Effects Measures of Effectiveness Measures of Effectiveness What’s Next? Operational Assessment Operations and Plan Review and Recommendations (OPRR) What’s Next? Operational Assessment Operations and Plan Review and Recommendations (OPRR) Tasks Measures of Performance Measures of Performance Recommendations Task Assessment Effects Assessment Are we doing the right things? Are we doing things right? Two parallel assessment processes that together can provide a comprehensive operational assessment for the commander 8

UNCLASSIFIED Campaign Assessment Process Desired Effect – a behavior or condition that results from an action, a set of actions, or another effect that describe the accomplishment of an objective. –MOEs (Measures of Effectiveness) - assess changes in system (adversary or 3 rd party) behavior, capability, or operational environment. A Task is a discreet event or action that enables a mission or function to be accomplished. –MOPs (Measures of Performance) evaluate task performance or accomplishment The assessment process and related measures should be relevant, measurable, achievable, responsive, and resourced so there is no false impression of accomplishment. 9

UNCLASSIFIED Effects and Task Assessment Structures 10 Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 End State Effect MOE Indicator MOE Indicator MOE Indicator EFFECTS Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 End State Task MOP TASKS

UNCLASSIFIED Task Assessment Structure/Example Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 End State Task MOP OBJ 3. CTF has transitioned operations to UNPACFOR or newly-authorized UN mission. Task: Transition to UN Forces Combat ops have ceased Establish liaison w/UN forces Law enforcement patrols are being conducted Task: Reestablish Security / Stability Example – Cobra Gold 10 11

UNCLASSIFIED Effects Assessment Structure/Example Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 End State Effect MOE Indicator MOE Indicator MOE Indicator E8. UNPACFOR is ready for transfer of responsibility Increase or decrease in regional support Increase/decrease in UN forces readiness Increase/decrease in secure operational environment E7. Kuhistan supports CTF Operations ASEAN Communiqués Leadership statements Example – Cobra Gold ‘10 12 OBJ 3. CTF has transitioned operations to UNPACFOR or newly-authorized UN mission.

UNCLASSIFIED DESIRED EFFECTS 1. Arcadian military, irregulars, police and civilian security forces withdraw from Makah-majority areas. 2. Military, police and civilian security forces do not suppress Makah population in UNPACFOR AOR. 3. SIFA demobilizes and disarms. 4. PHG demobilizes and disarms. 5. Government of Arcadia ceases support to PHG. 6. Government of Arcadia, NGO, and IO humanitarian assistance is provided. CTF has transitioned opns to UNPACFOR or newly-authorized UN mission. OBJECTIVE/ END STATES Arcadian gov’t is in compliance with 1 Jan 07 agreement, UNSCR 1739, and1923. Inter-ethnic violence in Arcadia has ended KEY TASKS 7. Kuhistan supports CTF operations. Assessment Design - Cobra Gold UNPACFOR is ready for transfer of responsibility. R G N A/G A/R A Execute Strategic Communications Plan Establish Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance Plan Be prepared to conduct Non-combatant Operations Re-establish Security/ Stability Transition to UN Force Support HA efforts by civilian elements without adversely affecting priority military tasks Tasks found in UNSCR 1923, 4(b), 4(c), 4(d), 4(e), 4(f)

UNCLASSIFIED Campaign Assessment Framework – What’s Next? CCTF Effects MOEs What’s Next? Operational Assessment Operations and Plan Review and Recommendations (OPRR) What’s Next? Operational Assessment Operations and Plan Review and Recommendations (OPRR) Tasks MOPs Recommendations Task Assessment Effects Assessment Are we doing the right things? Are we doing things right? Two parallel assessment processes that together can provide a comprehensive operational assessment for the commander 14

UNCLASSIFIED Operations & Plan Review & Recommendations Results are: Findings and Recommendations Deficiency Analysis that can lead to Actionable Recommendations –How effective is the operation? What’s next? Identify gaps between mission accomplishment and achievement of objectives/end states –Opportunities and a range of potential executable options Adjustments to current operations Refinement/development of sequels/branch plans Modify assessment criteria/design –Planning Horizons Current operations Future operations Future plans 15

UNCLASSIFIED DESIRED EFFECTS 1. Arcadian military, irregulars, police and civilian security forces withdraw from Makah-majority areas. 2. Military, police and civilian security forces do not suppress Makah population in UNPACFOR AOR. 3. SIFA demobilizes and disarms. 4. PHG demobilizes and disarms. 5. Government of Arcadia ceases support to PHG. 6. Government of Arcadia, NGO, and IO humanitarian assistance is provided. CTF has transitioned opns to UNPACFOR or newly-authorized UN mission. OBJECTIVE/END STATES Arcadian gov’t is in compliance with 1 Jan 07 agreement, UNSCR 1739, and1923. Inter-ethnic violence in Arcadia has ended KEY TASKS 7. Kuhistan supports CTF operations. Assessment Design - Cobra Gold UNPACFOR is ready for transfer of responsibility. R G N A/G A/R A Execute Strategic Communications Plan Establish Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance Plan Be prepared to conduct Non-combatant Operations Re-establish Security/ Stability Transition to UN Force Support HA efforts by civilian elements without adversely affecting priority military tasks Tasks found in UNSCR 1923, 4(b), 4(c), 4(d), 4(e), 4(f) 16 A/G G A A A A/R A/G A A A/R A ACHIEVEDON-PLAN / NOT ACHIEVED OFF-PLAN / NOT ACHIEVED RAG A/G

UNCLASSIFIED CTF Assessment Cross Functional Elements CCTF Effects MOEs What’s Next? Operational Assessment Operations and Plan Review and Recommendations (OPRR) What’s Next? Operational Assessment Operations and Plan Review and Recommendations (OPRR) Tasks MOPs Recommendations Task Assessment Effects Assessment Are we doing the right things? Are we doing things right? Campaign Assesment Cell Campaign Assessment Working Group Campaign Assessment Bpard Components Multinational Cmd Ctr 17

UNCLASSIFIED Multinational Force Command Center (M-CmdC) –The M-CmdC plays an important role in the assessment process. –Components and other subordinate organizations report the status of task accomplishment M-CmdC Tasks: –Provides progress assessments of CTF and component tasks. 18

UNCLASSIFIED Campaign Assessment Cell (CAC) –Primary organization which supports assessment process during planning and execution –Normally resides in C5 because of the relationship of assessments with planning. M-CmdC CAC Tasks –Represent assessment process in planning –Collect assessment information from CTF codes and elements –Conduct assessment of Effects and MOEs –Provide CAWG with draft assessment 19

UNCLASSIFIED Campaign Assessment Working Group (CAWG) –Cross functional analysis of the draft assessment at the action officer level –Membership may include C2, C35, C39, C4, C9(CivMil), POLAD, SJA, PAO, component reps, Fires, IO, CPG –Normally chaired by the C5 M-CmdC CAWG Tasks –Validate draft assessment –Provides recommendations to the Commander of the CTF via the Campaign Assessment Board (CAB). 20

UNCLASSIFIED Campaign Assessment Board (CAB) –Senior level decision-making forum –CAB membership may include the CCTF, DCTF, Chief of Staff, Directors of C-Codes, and select special staff –Makes recommendations to adjust operations and plans in order to achieve objectives to the CCTF M-CmdC 21

UNCLASSIFIED In Summary Campaign Assessment is a vital part of the Commander’s decision cycle that facilitates adaptation and learning Assessment is a process that measures progress of the CTF operations and actions as they relate to: –Strategic guidance –Military end state attainment –Mission accomplishment Doing the right things vs. doing things right Tasks create Effects that achieve the Objectives and the End State The assessment process provides findings and recommendations to the CCTF through Cross Functional Elements hosted by the C5 Campaign Assessment must be planned and included throughout the planning process 22

UNCLASSIFIED DESIRED EFFECTS END STATES LINES OF OPERATION Baseline Campaign Assessment – (D+3, 9 Feb) R G N A/G A/R A Communication Integration Peace Enforcement Stabilization & HA Arcadian forces are Withdrawn from Kuhistan and Free Mojave; the MNF Has transitioned Security operations To Royal Kuhistan Armed Forces and Free Mojave National Army and/ Or a UN authorized force; and restore stability & security in Pacifica Region. Transition Operations 1. Arcadia forces ceases all military actions. 2. Arcadia forces do not occupy Kuhistan territory. 3. Arcadia forces do not occupy Free Mojave territory. 4. Sonora does not support Arcadia Military operations. 5. Cathay does not support Arcadia Military operations. 6. Regional Partners support MNF operations. 7. Humanitarian Assistance operations in Pacifica are effective. 9. Free Mojave National Army or UN Authorized Force is ready for transfer of responsibility. 8. Kuhistan RAF is ready for transfer of responsibility. On Plan Partially On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

UNCLASSIFIED Findings & Recommendations FINDINGS:RISKS: OPPORTUNITIES:RECOMMENDATIONS: Review of effects and tasks with key and pertinent information to inform MNF Commander and Staff. Add relevant and pertinent assessment comments for discussion for MNF Commander and staff. Identify opportunities across DIME as it affects the operational environment. Based on the Constraints and Restraints, what are the risks? Based on the opportunities, what are the risks involved. Recommendations based on consultations with CPG Planners, C35 and C5 (Currents Ops, Future Ops, and Future Plans.

UNCLASSIFIED QUESTIONS? 25