Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS / U. Miami) Ryan Torn (SUNY at Albany) Fuqing Zhang.

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Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS / U. Miami) Ryan Torn (SUNY at Albany) Fuqing Zhang (Penn State) Acknowledgments: all PREDICT PIs and Forecasters 65 th IHC, Miami, FL. 03/01/11

Only ~20% of tropical waves develop into depressions. Need to advance understanding of the physical differences between developing and non-developing systems. Tropical cyclone formation is a multi-scale process, which depends on – Large-scale environment in which it is embedded – Wave’s structure (low-level vorticity, mid-level moisture) – Convective-scale processes: hot towers etc. Seek to investigate utility of ensemble forecasts – Global; Regional; Convective-scale The problem

Offer a longer-term outlook (>1 week) on the potential for a tropical disturbance to develop. – Scatter of forecasts depicting critical values of Area-averaged vorticity Geopotential thickness anomaly Okubo-Weiss parameter – Probabilities of exceedance of critical values of Vertical wind shear Lower-tropospheric relative humidity Upper level divergence / lower-level convergence Offer hypotheses on processes that lead to errors in large-scale conditioning (and thereby inaccurate representations of smaller-scale processes)

Example: Genesis of Karl (AL13; PGI44L) Monsoon-like trough predicted to meander northward from the northern coast of South America into the southern Caribbean. ECMWF ensemble forecasts of – (TOP) hPa relative vorticity averaged over disk of radius 300 km – (BOTTOM) hPa thickness anomaly: Z(r=250 km) – Z(r=1000 km) All initialized on 00 UTC, 8 Sept days prior to genesis

average rel. vort. (x s -1 )

X X

Example: Genesis of Karl (AL13; PGI44L) 7-day forecasts of – Probability that 700 hPa RH > 70% – Okubo-Weiss parameter (vorticity^2 – strain rate^2): indicator of strongly curved flow with minimum horizontal shearing deformation

Contours of O-W: 2 x s -2

X X X X

Example: Genesis of Karl (AL13; PGI44L) Genesis occurred just before 00 UTC, 15 Sep Next two “loops” – 9- through 0- day ensemble forecasts of area- averaged relative vorticity valid at genesis time – Same but displayed as PDFs

9-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

8-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

7-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

6-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

5-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

4-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

3-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

2-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

1-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

0-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

9-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

8-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

7-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

6-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

5-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

4-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

3-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

2-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

1-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

0-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep

How to verify ensemble forecasts? Verify each ensemble member individually to determine whether they meet some threshold criteria for genesis. Could examine area-averaged vorticity and thickness anomaly exceeding a critical value

Regional ensembles: WRF/EnKF

Larger variance in position and minimum SLP Tighter PDF, closer to verification values R. Torn Min SLP lowest 1/3 middle 1/3 highest 1/3 WRF-ARW / EnKF 36/12 km 96 mem

F. Zhang WRF-ARW / EnKF 40.5/13.5/4.5 km 60 mem DA 30 mem fcst Earlier forecasts developed Karl too soon; error reduced in subsequent cycles.

Future Work Produce community real-time ensemble products in 2011 from NCEP GEFS (+ others?) Determine viable objective criteria for genesis; explore tracking mechanisms Evaluate TIGGE ensemble predictions versus their own respective analyses Comparison with Torn ensemble sensitivity (WRF) Detailed investigation of processes that are adequately / inadequately captured in ensemble members: what are the key limitations?

hPa Area-averaged Vorticity hPa Thickness Anomaly NCEP GFS Analyses : TD

TIGGE: considerably different quantitative values of all fields relevant to genesis.