Nine Potential $100 Billion Weather Disasters of the Next 30 Years Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc. Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc.

Education: University of Michigan B.S. in Meteorology, 1982 M.S. in Meteorology, 1983 Thesis: “A Characterization of the Detroit Wintertime Aerosol” Ph.D. in Meteorology, 1997 Thesis: “Vertical Transport of Carbon Monoxide by Wintertime Mid-Latitude Cyclones” Me

RankDisasterYearDeathsDamage (2007 dollars) 1.Hurricane Katrina, LA/MS/AL/FL $133,800,000,000 2.Midwest/Eastern Drought19887,500$71,200,000,000 3.Midwest/Eastern Drought198010,000$55,400,000,000 4.Hurricane Andrew, FL/LA199226$40,000,000,000 5.Midwest Floods199348$30,200,000,000 6.Hurricane Ike, TX/LA/MS $27,000,000,000 7.Hurricane Wilma, FL200535$17,100,000,000 8.Hurricane Rita, LA/TX $17,100,000,000 9.Hurricane Charley, FL200415$16,322,000, Midwest Floods200824$15,000,000, Hurricane Ivan, FL/AL200457$15,400,000, State Drought20020$11,400,000,000 $10 billion+ U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980

Theory says to expect a 5% increase in hurricane winds per degree C of ocean warming (Emanuel, 2005). Expected increase in SST by 2100: degrees C. Hurricane wind speeds should increase by 5 -10%, resulting in times more wind damage than now. Hurricane rains should increase by 20%, causing much higher river flood damages. Storm surge damage increases by 102% - 200% for a 3- foot rise in sea level (FEMA, 1991). Climate Change is Expected to Increase Hurricane Damages Climate Change is Expected to Increase Hurricane Damages

9) Galveston/Houston Hurricane Probability: 30% 1900 Galveston Hurricane damage

8) New Orleans Hurricane Probability: 40% New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, 2005

7) Miami Hurricane Probability: 50% Miami Beach, 1926 Hurricane

Tropical Storm Irene over New York City, August 28, ) New York City Hurricane Probability: 20%

New York's LaGuardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter

PATH Train Station in Hoboken, NJ during the December 12, 1992 Nor’easter

What do we do about the increasing storm surge problem? Rhode Island Yacht Club during Hurricane Carol, 1954

7.6 meter Providence, Rhode Island Storm Surge Barrier Build storm surge barriers!

Proposed New York City storm surge barrier Arcadis, Inc

5) Midwest Drought Probability: 50% Texas drought, 2011

A $100 billion, 1-in-100-year U.S. drought would seriously strain world food prices

June 4, 2004 levee breach in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta 4) California ARkSTORM Flood Probability: 20% 4) California ARkSTORM Flood Probability: 20%

Old River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal water 3) Lower Mississippi Flood causes failure of the Old River Control Structure Probability: 20%

Mississippi River has changed course hundreds of times in history Mississippi River has changed course hundreds of times in history

Interruption of Mississippi barge traffic to the nation's 1st, 6th, 11th, and 14th busiest ports. Cost: $300 million per day. Loss of 60% of U.S. grain exports. Interruption of 57 million tons per year of crude oil, chemicals, steel, concrete, fertilizers, rubber, plywood, etc. moving upriver. Inundation of 11% of Louisiana. Likely destruction of Morgan City (population 12,000) No fresh water for: - One million people, including all of New Orleans - Oil refineries that supply 14% of U.S. oil - Natural gas refineries that produce over 20% of U.S. natural gas - Petrochemical plants supplying over 20% of U.S. petrochemicals Costs of Old River Control Structure Failure

2) Catastrophic Geomagnetic Storm Probability: 30% X-22 Class Solar Flare of April 2, 2001—Strongest Solar Flare on Record

Transformer at Salem Nuclear Plant fried by geomagnetic storm in 1989 Transformer at Salem Nuclear Plant fried by geomagnetic storm in 1989

A geomagnetic storm like the Carrington Event of 1859 or the 1921 storm would likely cause a collapse of the U.S. power system lasting years

1)Limited nuclear exchange of 100 nuclear weapons causes Nuclear Winter Probability: Not zero Probability: Not zero Atomic bomb blast over Nagasaki, Japan, 1945

Hunting Hugo: The Hurricane Hunters’ Wildest Ride Hunting Hugo: The Hurricane Hunters’ Wildest Ride Dr. Jeff Masters Chief Meteorologist The Weather Underground, Inc.

Served as Flight Meteorologist for NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center, Correction of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 AircraftCorrection of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 Aircraft A Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane GilbertA Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane Gilbert Wind Measurement From AircraftWind Measurement From Aircraft Flying Into the Eye of a HurricaneFlying Into the Eye of a Hurricane Meteorology at BrockportMeteorology at Brockport Publications:

Tail Doppler Radar

Gust Probe for high-resolution wind measurements

Cloud physics probes

2-D cross sections of snow

Alaska Storms Project, 1987

Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones in the Atlantic (ERICA),

Coordinated East Arctic Research Experiment (CEAREX), 1989

Hurricane Hugo on Montserrat

Hurricane Hugo on St. Croix and Puerto Rico

El Yunque Rain Forest, Puerto Rico

Sullivan’s Island Bridge, South Carolina

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