North Dakota Shifting Demographics: Challenges and Opportunities Dr. Richard Rathge Professor and Director North Dakota State Data Center Fall Professional Development Conference North Dakota Long Term Care Association Bismarck, ND Sept. 30, 2011 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

1. To present an overview of historical shifts in population dynamics in North Dakota. 2. To examine recent shifts in elderly population. 3. To discuss future challenges for long term care in North Dakota. 2 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

3  North Dakota’s population peaked in 1930 at 680,845.  The 2010 Census for North Dakota totaled 672,591, an increase of 30,391 persons from Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and the Population NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

4 North Dakota Cass County McIntosh County 40 similar counties 4 similar counties NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

5 Percent Change in Population, 2000 to 2010

6 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

7 Note: Based on 357 incorporated cities Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010 Note: Between 2000 and 2010, 83 of 357 incorporated places grew (23%)

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : Population Change: 2002 to 2003

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : Population Change: 2008 to 2009

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : Source: U.S. Census Bureau

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : Only 11 of 53 counties gained population between

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : 1. Shifting concentration of seniors 2. Changes in household composition 3. Economic impacts from the recession & oil energy development

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 1970 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : 13

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 2000 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : 14

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projections 2008 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : 15

 Mark Crossler, Extension Marketing Leader at Oregon State University designed the following illustrations 16 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

82.83 million million million and 27% larger than Millennials 18 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

79.39 million million 19 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

20 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

21 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

22 Seniors Ages 65 and Older: 2000

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : Seniors Ages 65 and Older: 2020

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : Seniors Ages 65 and Older: 2010

25 Young Adults Ages 25 to 34 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

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NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : 1. Shifting concentration of seniors 2. Changes in household composition 3. Economic impacts from the recession & oil energy development

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : Source: U.S. Census Bureau

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O. Box 6050, Dept. 8000,Fargo, ND Phone: (701) :

North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O. Box 6050, Dept. 8000,Fargo, ND Phone: (701) :

North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O. Box 6050, Dept. 8000,Fargo, ND Phone: (701) :

North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O. Box 6050, Dept. 8000,Fargo, ND Phone: (701) :

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : 1. Shifting concentration of seniors 2. Changes in household composition 3. Economic impacts from the recession & oil energy development

35 U.S. Household Net Worth, 2007 to 2010 est. in billions Average 24.5% decline since 2007 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

36 Nonfarm Employment Growth in U.S. and Regional States; 2007 to 2009

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : Historical Rates of Unemployment, 1976 to 2009

40 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) : U.S. rate 9.1%

41 ND Ranking in oil production 9 th in th in th in 2009 (only behind Texas Alaska, and California) 12,750 worked in the oil patch in 2010 compared to 2,000 in 2007 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

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43 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

 Shift in the distribution of seniors  Household composition shift to non-families, especially single person HH  Robust economic climate has created opportunities and challenges for western ND ◦ Strain for services ◦ Inflated housing demand (higher rents, higher property taxes) ◦ Challenges with dynamic population NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :

 Dr. Richard Rathge, Director ◦ North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU, IACC 424, Fargo, ND ◦ ◦ Phone: (701) Fax: (701) ◦ URL: 45 NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) :