The ARCHER automated TC center-fixing algorithm: Updates on real-time operations, accuracy and capabilities Anthony Wimmers and Christopher Velden Cooperative.

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Presentation transcript:

The ARCHER automated TC center-fixing algorithm: Updates on real-time operations, accuracy and capabilities Anthony Wimmers and Christopher Velden Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies University of Wisconsin - Madison R&D supported by the Naval Research Lab and Office of Naval Research; Operational evaluation by the NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed

Background: The ARCHER algorithm 2 Two main components: 1.Image analysis Parallax adjustment Determination of center-fix Determination of center-fix certainty (confidence) Additional metrics (prob. of eye, eye size, coarse intensity estimate) 2.Integration into storm track Adjust polar observations to a common timestep, in line with geostationary observations (0245, 0545, etc in NATL) Selection of the best observation Clean presentation of output

Real-time data sources Processes imagery in real-time and near real-time from: Geo imagers (Visible, IR, SWIR) Microwave imagers (37, GHz) SSMI, SSMIS, TMI, AMSR2, GMI, Windsat Scatterometer ASCAT RapidSCAT (TBA)

4 Connections to other research/applications 85 GHz (H) Bright. Temp. Center fix Rapid intensification (37 GHz – Jiang & Kieper, 85 GHz - Rozoff et al) TC structure (Cossuth et al) Automated Dvorak Technique (Velden et al) Visualization (MIMIC - Wimmers & Velden) Climatology (Knapp et al)

JHT Project 5 R&D of ARCHER supported by NRL/ONR The two-year project with the Joint Hurricane Testbed includes: 1.Implement an experimental version of ARCHER within JHT framework 2.Evaluation and adaptations toward providing an operational, real-time algorithm 3.Validation of the ARCHER scheme under simulated real-time conditions

Real-time product features Main menu ARCHER product description wiki Announcements TC data/imagery archive Active TCs

Real-time product features Track guidance page Fay (2014)

Real-time product features Text output

Real-time product features Text output Christina (2014) NMAP2 Display

Real-time product features Track guidance page Fay (2014)

Real-time product features [4x4 diagnostic image] ARCHER image diagnostics

Real-time product features [4x4 diagnostic image] ARCHER image diagnostics

Real-time product features [4x4 diagnostic image] ARCHER image diagnostics

Real-time product features ARCHER “best-center” selection diagnostic

Real-time product features ARCHER “best-center” selection diagnostic

Real-time product features ARCHER “best-center” selection diagnostic

Real-time product features ARCHER “best-center” selection diagnostic 37 GHz 85 GHz Geo IR Geo SWIR

ARCHER: Performance 18 Fay (2014)

ARCHER: Performance 19 Fay (2014)

ARCHER: Performance 20 Fay (2014) 85 GHz ASCAT 37 GHz ASCAT 85 GHz (interpolation)

ARCHER: Performance 21 Fay (2014)

ARCHER: Performance 22 Fay (2014) 85 GHz (interpolation) Geo SWIR

ARCHER: Performance 23 Fay (2014) 85 GHz Geo SWIR (interpolation)

ARCHER: Performance – Visible imagery 24 GOOD: Fay (2014)BAD: Bertha (2014)

Validation: Quantitative results 25 What is the median ARCHER position error with respect to the best track? (2012 NATL) TD - TSCat 1Cat 2-5 Real-time38 km29 km18 km Near real-time32 km24 km17 km

Validation: Quantitative results 26 How often does ARCHER outperform alternative center-fixing methods? TD - TSCat 1Cat 2-5 SAB fix31% / 40%25% / 42%21% / 26% TAFB fix37% / 43%25% / 44%26% / 21% We will be submitting these results for publication: Wimmers and Velden, “Advancements in objective multi-satellite tropical cyclone center-fixing”

On the Horizon Validation for 2014 season Addition of RapidSCAT (definite), VIIRS DNB (if possible) Improvement of Visible channel center-fixing Improvement in the data ingestor for the first 6 hours of a TC Final decision to go operational with ARCHER at NHC/TAFB is expected from JHT management at the end of 2015