MIGRATION AND PUBLIC POLICY POLI 146A

READING Smith, Talons, ch. 13 Domínguez and Fernández de Castro, chapters 2, 4, 5 (Mexico, Central America, Caribbean)

Introduction: Patterns and Policies THE NUMBERS GAME(S) Flows Stocks Proportions Costs and benefits Rates of assimilation

Emotional Issues and Political Debates Ethnicity vs. melting pots Diversity vs. tradition Fairness vs. efficiency

Numerical Dimensions ~11 million illegal immigrants in U.S % from Mexico 25% of Mexico’s able-bodied male workforce now in U.S. U.S.-Mexican wage ratio ~ 8:1 or 10:1

Undocumented Immigrants in the United States

Mexican-Origin Population in United States, Mx-born (9.9)

Regional Origin of Mexican Migrants

Geographical Concentration of Mexican Migrants

Remittances to Mexico,

Border Patrol Agents

Effects of Border Enforcement 1. Shifting routes (toward Arizona) 2. Increased use of coyotes (smugglers) 3. Reduced “circularity” (more permanent stays) 4. More women and families 5. Increased loss of life

Deaths at the Border 2001 = = = = > 500

Migration and the Global Economic Crisis (2008+) Context: joblessness everywhere New entries down (not due to border enforcement, since 95% of migrants without papers get through) Return migration growing (despite concern in Mexico about major increase) Net migration from Mexico ~ zero Within USA, unemployment among Latino men > Anglo men

The Range of Policy Choice: Legal Migration Revise legal quotas Revise criteria for entry

The Range of Policy Choice: Illegal Migration Strategies for restriction: Building fences Blocking corridors (e.g., Operation Gatekeeper) Withdrawing incentives and benefits (e.g., Prop 187) Punishing employers Strategies for opening: Augmenting quotas Guest-worker programs Eliminating barriers Strategies for reduction: Targeting economic development Circulating information Additional steps?

Initiatives on Migration Phase 1: The Whole Enchilada (January-September 11, 2001) Phase 2: Focus on Security and Border Fortification Phase 3: The Second Bush Term Temporary amnesty for those here and employed Guest-worker program Eventual path to citizenship

OBAMA AND THE CIR Path to citizenship: Apply for green card in 10 years, citizenship 3 years after that; pay $1,000 fine plus back taxes; stay employed and learn English (faster track for Dream Act youth) Border patrol: DHS to receive $3 billion for improved border security, including use of surveillance drones and 3,500 additional agents, plus $1.5 billion for fencing. Within 5 years DHS must achieve 100 % surveillance of border and apprehend 90% of illegal crossers in “high-risk” (densely populated) areas Skilled workers: visas for skilled engineers and computer programmers to increase from 65,000 per year to 110,00, with an eventual cap as high as 180,000 Guest workers: new program of 20,000 for low-skilled workers, rising to 75,000 by 2019; limitation on farm workers Family visas: tighter restrictions on family unification; point system based on family ties and work skills by 2015

What Would You Do?