1 All Island Environmental Health Forum Tomorrow’s Environmental Health Developments in the International Climate Change Agenda Owen Ryan Department of the Environment, Heritage & Local Government May 2010

2 Climate Change Agenda International agenda UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992); Kyoto Protocol (1997);  (Commitment period ) IPCC – 4th scientific assessment report (2007). EU agenda European Climate Change Programme. National agenda 1st National Climate Change Strategy published nd Strategy ( ) published April Commitment to the Climate Change Bill 2010.

3 Ultimate objective Ultimate objective of UN convention: stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Convention strengthened with the adoption of Kyoto Protocol in 1997; but Protocol targets will expire at end 2012.

4 International negotiations Focused on finding a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. EU pressing for a comprehensive treaty based on keeping global temperature within 2˚C of pre-industrial levels. Copenhagen Accord (Dec ’09) contains positive commitments on action but falls well short of EU ambition. Not legally binding!

5 Future negotiations 16 th Conference of the Parties to the Convention – Mexico, December EU position - a stepwise approach, building on Copenhagen Accord. Need decisions to anchor the Copenhagen Accord in the UN process. 17 th Conference in South Africa in Possible agreement on new treaty.

6 Independent EU ambition Binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by Underpinned by the 2008 EU Climate and Energy legislative package. Conditional offer to step up to 30% as part of a global and comprehensive international agreement for the post period.

7 National policy National Climate Change Strategy (published April 2007) mitigation, and adaptation. Annual Carbon Budget Introduced 2007 to progress policy development. Climate Change Bill to provide, i.a.: statutory basis for policies and principles; and national mitigation and adaptation plans.

8 Adaptation IPCC definition: adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderate harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Impacts are inevitable due to current and historic emissions; adaptation is essential. Policy development in Ireland still at a relatively early stage.

9 Context for adaptation policy Effective global mitigation essential. Adaptation not an option; current and historic emissions. Challenges and opportunities. Not a stand-alone issue; risk assessment/risk management objective that must be – informed by best available science, and embedded in all policy areas - integration. Awareness – influence behaviour to reduce impacts/costs and maximise opportunities. Responses must not be counter-productive.

10 General impacts Globally – rising temperatures, heat- waves, rising sea levels, droughts, floods, storms and fires. Northern Europe: initial impacts may include benefits, such as less demand for heating, and increased crop yields and forest growth, but negative impacts are likely to outweigh benefits.

11 Potential health impacts According to IPCC, projected climate change related exposures likely to affect the health status of millions of people through, i.a. increased deaths, disease and injury due to heatwaves, floods, fires storms and droughts; increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases; and altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors. Greatest risk to people with low adaptive capacity.

12 Possible impacts in Ireland By the end of 21 st century: average temperature projected to rise, possibly by as much as 1-4 ˚ C; autumn and winter seasons will become wetter, possibly by as much as 15-25%;. summers will become drier, possibly by as much as 10-18%. Extreme events may become more frequent and intense, e.g. storms, droughts, flooding. Coastal zones may be particularly vulnerable

13 National adaptation policy Objective – to provide a national framework for the integration of adaptation into decision-making at national and local level. Foundation – 2009 report from EPA: A Summary of the State of Knowledge on Climate Change Impacts for Ireland. Ongoing work on key issues, including vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity. Climate Change Bill to provide for policy responses through adaptation planning.

14 Stakeholder input to policy Opportunities for stakeholder input: Heads of the Climate Change Bill and the Regulatory Impact Assessment, and draft national adaptation framework when published. “A well defined and reassuring response to potential health impacts will be a key component of a comprehensive and successful national adaptation framework.” Minister Gormley, Feb ’10)

15 Conclusion Climate change – one of the greatest threats facing mankind and a key cross-cutting policy issue for Government. Global GHG emissions must be halved by 2050; developed countries in aggregate must reduce emissions by 80% or more. Targets for 2020 and beyond will be much more onerous than Kyoto Protocol; need for transition to low-carbon future. Adaptation to inevitable impacts essential.