Late Holocene and Present Sea Level Changes Nils-Axel Mörner President ( ) of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution Leader of the Maldives Project (from on); an international research project among sea level specialists Co-ordinator of the INTAS project on Geomagnetism and Climate ( ) Head of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm University, Sweden In the hot international sea level debate for 35 years (

Many variables control the stability of a shoreline

Sea Level Rose for glacial eustatic reasons up to about 5000 BP. after that, global sea level has been dominated by the redistribution of ocean water masses (and by that ocean stored energy) In a feed-back coupling in the interchange of angular momentum (rate of rotation) between the hydrosphere and solid Earth by that driving the ocean surface circulation and its redistribution of water masses & heat (sea level & paleoclimate)

“Horizontal Eustasy” Ocean Level Redistribution I have argued for over 20 years that sea level is changing drastically due to redistribution of water masses over the globe and even claimed that this is the dominating factor for the last 5000 years Satellite altimetry records this differential distribution of water massed between 1993 and 2000 Despite the fact that we do not accept the proposed on-going rise in sea level

Present-to-Future Sea Level Changes: methods used and values obtained

The combined observational records (in mm/year) for the last 300 years. It shows variations – ups and downs – but no trend. For year 2100, INQUA gives predictions in line with this record, whilst the IPCC scenarios lie far above – way off – observational data

The new sea level curve of the Maldives; present level reached ~4000 BP, sea level strongly oscillating for regional dynamic reasons, a drop in sea level ~1970, no rise in the last 30 years.

At ~1970 Sea Level fell some 20 cm Causing erosion with sand deposition outward, downward Leaving an old fossil shore and an old overgrewing surface of grey weathered corals. The present shore has remained stable for ~30 years

Exploring some notorious sites claimed to be in a ”flooding mode” The Maldives: No rise but stability and fall ~1970 Tuvalu: No rising trend (tide gauge date from 1978) Vanuatu: No rising trend (tide gauge data from 1993) Venice: No acceleration (rather the opposite ~1970) Eastern Mediterranean: Rise due to precipitation increase

Satellite altimetry is a new and important means of recording sea level. The record show NO rising trend. Just a variability around a zero level (blue) + a major ENSO event (yellow). This data set was presented on the TOPEX/POSEIDON web-page, in their publications, and used by me in my paper in Global and Planetary Changes, vol. 40, 2004, p

In 2003, a totally new record appeared on the web-page Now there was a trend of 2.3 mm/year. This trend, however, comes from selected tide gauge records not satellite altimetry measurements

The ”flooding scenario” of IPCC does not concur with observational sea level facts. Therefore, it must be called-off as a mistake. Today, we favour a 2100 value of +5 cm +15 cm

There is no global sea level rise going on that will flood islands and low-lying coasts in the near-future It is high time to face available observational facts, discard untenable model scenaria and start discussing real threats in the real world

Today I launch a short book entitled: The Greatest Lie Ever Told unfortunately I have to charge 15 Australian dollars for it