Gerald Harris Planning and Strategy Development An introduction to Scenario-based Strategic Planning

Plan! Plan! What’s the plan? Why do we plan? “Without a vision the people will perish” “If you don’t know where you are going it is hard to get there” “The starting point of all achievement is a clear desire.” “Why are we doing this? “So you want money to do what?”

Running an organization If only the world and running our organizations was this simple!

What we expect versus what happens Where we intended to go Found something better quicker Missed it completely Events pushed us here on the way The uncontrollable factors in the environment and in our organizations lead to different results

How do we end up somewhere we had no intentions of going? Political Change Social Change Economic Shifts Environmental Issues Technological Change Demographics Financial Markets New Values

Would you have imagined? All the things we can now do based on the internet and communications infrastructure? Nelson Mandela’s life story? The tragedy of 9/11? The rise of reality TV? Arnold Schwartzenegger as Governor of California? People paying $2 for a bottle of water? The rise of China and India?

Can you imagine? What might come from bio-technology and nano-technology breakthroughs? What the Chinese will do with $1trillion U.S. dollars they need to spend? Who will immigrate to the U.S. over the next 20 years and the political impacts? The near and long term effects of global climate change? The shape of the U.S. economy as it emerges from the credit crisis?

What is scenario planning? Creating useful stories about the future of what you are uncertain about Researching and understanding the drivers of change and using what you learned to create plausible futures Testing current strategies and creating new ones in the context of possible futures Learning Forward

The core of scenario thinking Predicting the future accurately and consistently is a tough task. The more uncertain the factors that are shaping the future the tougher it is. We are not entirely helpless, we can learn our way forward and assess options. We can prepare to manage some of the larger risk and be ready to seize some of the better opportunities.

The key steps of scenario- based strategic planning 1. Get a sense of the problem or decisions 2. Ask questions about key uncertainties and assumptions 3. Gather a diverse team of key stakeholders 4. Use a good process for creating multiple scenarios 5. Test current strategies, plans, ideas against the scenarios. Think of new strategies within the context of the scenarios 6. Isolate both robust and contingent steps to take.

Core steps to creating good scenarios 1. Get a clear focus question to anchor the scenarios 2. Brainstorm the factors and driving forces that might have influence 3. Find a useful model or tool for organizing the key driving forces into a structure for scenarios (matrix, relational diagrams) 4. Create the stories (logic, time scale, core arguments) using the key drivers and your model 5. Test current strategies within the context of the scenarios. Brainstorm and test new strategies. 6. Prioritize results into robust and contingent categories 7. Capture a learning-forward agenda

Contact Information Contacting Gerald Harris: Or, Phone: Address: 6511 Lucas Ave, Suite 8 Oakland, CA References provided upon request. Customized assistance with strategic planning to meet the needs of your organization.