Tolman, May 13, 2015JCSDA NWS overview, 1/11 JCSDA Activities and Plans NWS overview & plans Hendrik L. Tolman Director, Environmental Modeling Center.

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Tolman, May 13, 2015JCSDA NWS overview, 1/11 JCSDA Activities and Plans NWS overview & plans Hendrik L. Tolman Director, Environmental Modeling Center NOAA / NWS / NCEP

Tolman, May 13, 2015JCSDA NWS overview, 2/11 Intro  Overview Many activities ongoing:  Global Model, hybrid ensemble 4DVAR  FY16Q1, Sandy Supplemental.  Ensemble based for other systems  HWRF TDR, …..  NCODA for oceans.  Waves in RTMA  GSI DA.  YOPP, ice DA.  Many, many instruments (JPSS, GOES-R, ….)  CRTM  Need more resources.

Tolman, May 13, 2015JCSDA NWS overview, 3/11 Intro  But … There are many systematic changes in NWS operational modeling, focus on that here. Driving forces for operational modeling suite:  UCACN and NCEP strategic plan.  UMAC.  Unified modeling, coupled DA. In he context of progressing with existing approaches while the new approaches are implemented incrementally.

Tolman, May 13, 2015JCSDA NWS overview, 4/11 NCEP driving forces  UCAN report and NCEP Strategic plan EMC modeling directions:  Toward unified modeling:  Simplify Production Suite.  But ….. also add more:  New elements in the environmental modeling suite.  Reforecast for postprocessing of model results.  Be more nimble, faster model improvements.  But …… changes require much work on post-processing side, so change less often ….. EMC do more do less change faster change slower modeling strategy

Tolman, May 13, 2015JCSDA NWS overview, 5/11 Strategic approach: UMAC UCACN Model Advisory Board (UMAC)  Review production suite  Strategic level.  Team from academia.  Stakeholders (including contributors) to be heard, but not on the panel itself. Global unification ?  Following slides on global are tentative ….  Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). High Resolution Rapid Refresh and ensembles. Everything in between Essential point of reference for NCEP

Tolman, May 13, 2015JCSDA NWS overview, 6/11 Software architecture  Software architecture considerations play an important role in the business model. Modular code design based on NEMS.  ESMF, NUOPC. Dealing with component models in coupled modeling approach as “plug and play”. Separating dynamic core from physics in weather models. Modular unified postprocessing etc.  What used to be a full forklift model upgrade can now be much less intrusive, leveraging modular NEMS features.  NGGPS dynamic core upgrade can now tentatively be a core upgrade in NEMS, rather than building an entire new modeling suite.  Targeting five year project.  Upgrade of GFS rather than running old and new side-by-side for many years.

Tolman, May 13, 2015JCSDA NWS overview, 7/11 NGGPS and NEMS / ESMF Modular modeling, using ESMF to modularize elements in fully coupled unified global model ( + ionosphere, ecosystems, …… )

Tolman, May 13, 2015JCSDA NWS overview, 8/11 Whole Atmosphere Model Unified Global Model Application = Ensemble + Reanalysis + Reforecast NGGPS Unified Global Coupled Model “GFS”“GEFS”“CFS” Short term weather Week 2 through 4-6 Seasonal & annual 1 y2 y4 yUpdate cycle 3 y20-25 y presentReanalysis 6h6-24h???cycling WCOSS WCOSS ?where

Tolman, May 13, 2015JCSDA NWS overview, 9/11 Coupled DA Proof of Concept Coupling models and coupled DA.  Atmosphere: Hybrid 4D-EnVAR approach using a 80- member coupled forecast and analysis ensemble, with Semi-lagrangian dynamics, and 128 levels in the vertical hybrid sigma/pressure coordinates.  Ocean/Seaice: GFDL MOM5.1/MOM6 and/or HYCOM for the ocean and sea-ice coupling, using the NEMS coupler.  Aerosols: Inline GOCART for aerosol coupling.  Waves: Inline WAVEWATCH III for wave coupling.  Land: Inline Noah Land Model for land coupling.

Tolman, May 13, 2015JCSDA NWS overview, 10/11 Coupled Model Ensemble Forecast NEMS OCEAN SEA-ICE WAVE LAND AERO ATMOS Ensemble Analysis (N Members) OUTPUT Coupled Ensemble Forecast (N members) INPUT Coupled Model Ensemble Forecast NEMS OCEAN SEA-ICE WAVE LAND AERO ATMOS NCEP Coupled Hybrid Data Assimilation and Forecast System

Tolman, May 13, 2015JCSDA NWS overview, 11/11