2009 Economic and Commodity Outlook ASFMRA Denver, Colorado October 30, 2009
2009 THREE BIGGEST EVENTS of LAST TWO WEEKS
2009 October 17,2009 Purdue 26 THE Ohio State 18
2009 October 24,2009 Purdue 24 Illinois 14
2009 October 24,2009 Iowa State 9 Nebraska 7
2009 General Economy Where are we headed…
2009 CASH for CLUNKERS was A GOOD DEAL
2009 GOT a LOT of OBAMA BUMPER STICKERS OFF THE ROAD
2009 Economic Overview While some economic indicators are hinting the recession is ending – it isn’t. Unemployment remains high with little sign of improvement. Deflation continues. This will be the decade of Three Bubbles: 1. The High Tech Bubble of The Housing Bubble of The Commodity Price Bubble of 2008.
2009 Name this country…
2009 Richest in the world Largest military Center of world business and finance Strongest education system World center of innovation and invention Currency the world standard of value Highest standard of living
2009 ENGLAND
2009 In 1900
of every 8 couples married in the U.S. last year met online
2009
Dow Jones Industrial Average, Continuous Monthly With Disparity Ratio
2009 Dow Jones Industrial Average, Daily
2009 US Dollar Index, Continuous Monthly
2009
Gold Futures, Continuous Monthly
2009 GCZ9
2009 Crude Oil, Continuous Monthly (NYMEX)
2009
Agriculture Overview Grain prices have likely bottomed for this marketing year Livestock profits will improve Ethanol production will increase Fertilizer supplies could get tight All ag commodity prices will be very volatile.
2009
Ethanol Plants in Production
2009 Ethanol vs. Gasoline Futures
2009
Can Ethanol Demand Reach 4.2 Billion Bushels in 2009/10?
2009
Natural Gas Futures, Continuous Monthly
2009
Corn Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)
2009 December 2009 Corn Futures
2009 December 2010 Corn Futures
2009
Soybean Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)
2009 November 2009 Soybean Futures
2009 November 2010 Soybean Futures
2009
HRS: Underlined, SRW: Bold, HRW: Normal
2009
Wheat Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)
2009 December 2009 Wheat Futures
2009
Source: Iowa State University
2009
Live Cattle Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)
2009 December 2009 Live Cattle Futures
2009 Source: Iowa State University
2009
Lean Hogs Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)
2009 December 2009 Lean Hog Futures
2009
* All data is in thousand heads. Bold: End 2004 * 2009 data: Source, USDA, as of August * * * * 1,236 1,257* * * * 1,741 1,782* Number of Cows 9,013 9,269* Total US Cows
2009
Class III Milk Continuous Monthly Chart (With Disparity Ratio)
2009 December 2009 Class III Milk Futures
2009 In Summary Farm income will be down in 2009, due primarily to livestock. Profits will bounce back in Producers in the southern half of the US will be mostly price buyers, not quality buyers, in the coming months. Yield increases in corn and soybeans are starting to ramp up sharply. Livestock prices have already made a major bottom.
2009 Land prices and cash rents will stay strong in the Midwest. California and other states impacted by dairy losses, water availability and environmental issues will soften Consolidation of farms will continue increasing the demand for farm management services and appraisals
2009 For More Information on the Brock Report, write, or call BROCK ASSOCIATES 2050 W. Good Hope Rd. Milwaukee, WI (800)