1 IGY The ALERT signal of ground level enhancements of solar cosmic rays: physics basis, the ways of realization and development Anashin V., Belov A., Eroshenko E., Krjakunova O., Mavromichalaki H., Ishutin I., Sarlanis C., Souvatsoglo G., Vashenyuk E. and Yanke V. Russian Institute of Space Device Engineering, Moscow, Russia Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation RAS (IZMIRAN), Moscow, Russia Institute of Ionosphere of National Center of Space Research and Technologies, Almaty, Kazakhstan Nuclear and Particle Physics Section, Physics Department, Athens University, Greece Polar Geophysical Institute, Apatity, Russia 1104

2 Using the data from neutron monitor network observation the system of the ALERT signal generation is elaborated about, as ground level proton enhancements, so for search for solar neutron increases. On this basis the service with the warning notification by about the onset ofSolar CR increase is organized. Possibility of self-testing of system is provided. Fluxes of high energy protons of solar flares reach huge sizes (>1000 pfu) and, hence, the forecast and an estimation of such fluxes is extremely important practical problem. Having defined according to ground level cosmic ray stations of the spectra of particles responsible for GLE, it is possible to estimate fluxes and behaviour of the protons, in particular, >100 MeV, outside of magnetosphere on some tens hours prior to maximum danger flux. For automatic start of corresponding programs on spectra definition and the solving this problem in real time, it is necessary to have a signal ALERT, warning on the beginning of GLE. The present work became possible with creation of a database of the neutron monitor network in real time (NMDB project)

3 IGY Time scale of the response to solar disturbances at Earth and scale of prognosis by NOAA+ GLE+SolarNeutrons

4 IGY ALERT OF SOLAR PROTONS Illustration of time delay in different energy profiles from the onset of X-ray flare (for the event on July 14, 2000)

5 IGY The onset of GLE60 at different polar stations; Insertions at a level of 5% shows the onset

6 IGY Block-scheme of the system for generation of ALERT signal for proton ground level enhancement

7 IGY Interface of ALERT Service: AlertAndProfilesPrognosing/index.htm This approach is realized on the IZMIRAN server The picture of interface is presented in this figure The present work became possible with creation of a database of the neutron monitor network in real time (NMDB project)

8 IGY You can look at the results in digital form of calculated at every minute in real time, clicking the button “Protocol of working program”

9 IGY Resulting Table updated each minute in real time and presenting the information for the last 12 minutes For each minute we can see: total number operating stations in the list of NMDB; number of stations used for analysis; number of stations showed an increase of counting rate higher of fixed threshold. The program works out ALERT signal if an increase is observed at more than 80% of used stations

10 IGY ALERT OF SOLAR NEUTRONS Solar neutron observations are 10 times more rare events as compared with protons, however these data together with data on X-ray flares and gamma radiation allow to get important information about the source of accelerated particles on the Sun. For observation of solar neutron the high mountain equatorial stations are ideal if observe the event in the summer at local midday. We considered only detectors which publish their data in real time. Applicants for possible neutron increase can be only those which are accompanied by X-ray flares of a class above X1. The program auto-testing of a system Solar Neutron Alert is elaborated and included in the internet project.

11 IGY Block-scheme of the system of producing ALERT signal of the solor neutron ALERT OF SOLAR NEUTRONS

12 IGY ALERT OF SOLAR NEUTRONS Interface of ALERT Service Clicking the red sign of station we get the resulting Table which shows calculations in real time of the CR variations at this stations, results of testing analysis and conclusions, if this station at this moment records real solar neutron effect (after comparing with X-ray data).

13 IGY Example of resulting Table on searching of solar neutron effect at station Jungfraujoch (3NM64)

14 CONCLUSION 1)The algorithm of generation of alert signal about ground level proton increase on the basis of the one-minute data of the neutron monitor network is developed and realized. The developed Internet project provides possibility of formation of the electronic warning signal and its automatic dispatch. 2)The developed system of selection of applicants for solar neutron increase allows to form the list of possible increases in real time and carry out the internal control of system. 3)The developed Internet project provides possibility of formation of the electronic message and its automatic dispatch. At the given stage the cone of reception of solar neutrons got out wide enough, namely 2 hour relatively local midday. 4)In project development it is supposed to involve results of another work when such choice can be detailed taking into account probabilities of arrival of neutrons in the given point and at present days.