Use of emissions & other data reported within the LRTAP Convention in the IIASA GAINS model Z.Klimont Center for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) Emission Inventory Compilers and Users Workshop 13 th May 2013, Istanbul, Turkey

Typical IIASA-GAINS model use Understanding/reproducing reported emissions, Projecting emissions, Assessing mitigation potential, Calculating control costs, Assessing impacts and searching for cost-optimal strategies considering constraints/targets In all elements listed above we benefit from your and other stakeholders’ work and collaborate with other EMEP centers Emissions, costs time Baseline emissions Mitigation potential Control costs

PM (BC, OC) SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 COCO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O HFCs PFCs SF 6 Health impacts: PM (Loss in life expectancy)  O 3 (Premature mortality)  Vegetation damage: O 3  Acidification  Eutrophication  Climate impacts: Long-term ++++ Near-term forcing +/ Black carbon deposition + The RAINS model (Regional Acidification Information and Simulation) The GAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework (Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies)

Central question for policy makers Example: Revision of European air quality policy To what level should the emissions of air pollutants be reduced in the year 2020? –Where will emissions and effects be in 2020 without further policies? –What reductions are technically feasible? –How much do they cost? – optimal/non-optimal –Who (which countries) pays? –How much are they willing to pay? –Who benefits? –Is it enough? –Is it fair?

Scope for further environmental improvements in the UNECE area: 4(6) effects Closing the gap Expected achievements of current policy; relative to 2000 Scope

Results of GAINS analysis for TSAP (EU Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution): Health impacts PM2.5 Baseline implies ~5 months shortening of statistical life expectancy after 2020 Additional MTFR measures could save ~55 million years of life of European population CLE 2030 MCE Years of life lost Loss in statistical life expectancy (months)

Results of GAINS analysis for TSAP (EU Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution): Emission reductions in central scenario: NH 3 Key measures: Efficient (‘low emission’) application of urea fertilizer Low nitrogen feed (pigs, dairy cows, poultry) Low emission application of livestock manures; liquid and solid Closed storage of manures and new low emission housing (pigs, poultry)

PM (BC, OC) SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 COCO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O HFCs PFCs SF 6 Health impacts: PM (Loss in life expectancy)  O 3 (Premature mortality)  Vegetation damage: O 3  Acidification  Eutrophication  Climate impacts: Long-term ++++ Near-term forcing +/ Black carbon deposition + The GAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework (Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies)

Co-control of GHGs and air pollutants Annex I parties of UNFCCC, 2020 Source: IIASA GAINS

Considering co-emission of pollutants at technology level results in different mixes (ratios) of pollutants depending on chosen strategy Example : Mitigation potentials in 2030 in in two scenarios developed in UNEP (2011) study Source: IIASA GAINS

BC emissions in the EU-27, baseline, relative change and thousand tons [total] Source: GAINS model

Courtesy of Jessica McCarty, Michigan Tech Research Institute

Incomplete wish list… for discussion in the afternoon? National vs international databases: how to improve consistency, e.g, non-commercial fuelwood use, How to improve spatial allocation of some sources, e.g., inland navigation TFEIP repository of national, often not peer-reviewed, studies? More regular involvement of remote sensing and inverse modelling community, Strengthen collaboration with other regional and global inventory activities (developers and users), e.g. MACCity, GEIA, HTAP, etc.

More details and background available from: General GAINS policy portal: onofAirPollutionandGreenhousegases/Overview.en.html onofAirPollutionandGreenhousegases/Overview.en.html –GAINS model: UNECE Gothenburg Protocol revision work – revisionhttp://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/gothenburg-protocol- revision Review of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP); towards revision of National Emission Ceiling Directive (NECD) –