Will shifting power cause increased tensions? Multi-polar world?

MULTI-POLAR future? How can tensions show themselves? USA / EU wane, BRIC power grows. regional spheres of influence Broad arc stretching from Turkey eastwards to Indo-China: region of: Unresolved territorial disputes 6 nuclear powers (China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Israel, NATO) Numerous recent conflicts Religious conflict Rogue and troubled states At least 60% of the world’s remaining oil and gas How can tensions show themselves?

Where are there tensions today? Discussion/ ideas Where are there tensions today?

Who might benefit from this tension?

Tension 1 China Vs USA Will shifting power cause increased tensions? -> One global culture to another Where might conflicts arise? (what have we already got notes upon?) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIpOUNKSXXE 5 mins/ ITV DVD 6 mins Tension 1 China Vs USA 5 Key points of this tension – causes and effects

Tensions 2: Rising Middle East http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12482295 Revolutions could lead to a greater Islamist Centre of power?

Tensions 3: China Vs India http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JS4VZbCWj8 5 Key points of this tension – causes and effects

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6913250.ece http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjACK71QQ-w China and India slip into Cold war

Would a multi-polar global future increase tension and conflict? Superpower Conflict Would a multi-polar global future increase tension and conflict? Sources of tension might be considered in terms of three global agendas: Strategic Agenda The USA dominates global foreign policy, but its ‘War or Terror’ brings it into conflict with the Islamic world and potentially the oil rich Gulf States. China and Russia tend to support Iran and opposed the two Gulf Wars, whereas the USA strongly opposes Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan are still unresolved problems and the USA is ‘stretched’ in terms of international involvement. Economic Agenda Global economic growth and globalisation place increased pressure on natural resources (land for food, water, fossil fuels, ores and minerals); conflict over resources is possible in the future and locations such as Africa, the Gulf States and Russia are likely to become increasingly important as areas with large remaining reserves of resources. This could increase tensions as the Superpowers and emerging powers squabble over access to resources. Climate Agenda The difficult and protracted Climate negotiations in Copenhagen in Dec 2009 showed that the USA, EU and BRICs do not share the same views on environmental issues; relations between China and the USA were chilly to say the least; environmental (and human rights) issues have some potential to sour international relations.

Will shifting power cause increased tensions? -> One global culture to another Where might conflicts arise? (what have we already got notes upon?) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIpOUNKSXXE 2) Read p128 to 131 edexcel handout Example = USA capitalism vs European liberalism http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCqA4QhfXHA&feature=channel http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOZmvaFfjtk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2sFT7T0mCs&feature=related 3) Copy fig4.25 with title 4) Use a base map to plot conflict locations in the world today and colour code in order to explain the type of conflict which exists there: Red = Terrorism based on culture clash Blue = Direct intervention in countries by core countries and emerging superpowers Orange = By-proxy indirect intervention where backers sponsor sides in a war for their benefit.

Core Intervention Terrorism By-Proxy conflict Russia – Chechnya NATO – Afghanistan USA/ UK – Iraq China – Uyghurs UN – East Timor 11/09/2001 WTC London 05 Mombassa 02 Bali 02 Mumbai 08 Madrid 04 Ethiopia Vs Somalia/Somaliland – (USA vs Islam) Israel – Palestine (USA vs Islam) Pakistan – ‘Taliban’ (USA vs Islam) Afghanistan - Taliban (USA vs Iran)

Read Pearson p96-103