PCEA PUBLIC HEARINGS 22 September 2015 Consultation on SA’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)

DEFN. CLIMATE CHANGE: 2

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 3

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From Durban to Paris INDC: To clarify legal status and its r/ship to the 2015 agreement To develop a Protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the convention applicable to all - African COP Trust building COP Establish the 2 nd commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol Platform for all key stakeholders to discuss and agree  Launching the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) Doha COP 18 Warsaw COP 19 Lima COP 20 Doha Amendment to the Kyoto protocol is established Reinforced INDC -Agreed on upfront information for mitigation -Agreed to include adaptation undertaking as component of the INDC -Agreed on LIMA call for Climate Action ADP Decision that incites parties to initiate or intensify Domestic preparations for INDC (National homework) and accelerate full implementation Of the BAP and Pre 2020 ambition Durban COP 17 Paris COP 21 8

PROGRESS UNDER UNFCCC The negotiations under the UNFCCC towards the adoption of a new legal instrument in December 2015 are over differentiation of responsibilities in International Relations; SA operates in the UNFCCC based on its national interests and domestic economic profile, member of Africa Group, the G77&China, and BASIC; SA is viewed as a constructive actor based on its role in hosting and guiding the Durban COP towards a consensus outcome, which is the basis of current negotiations under the Durban Platform on Enhanced Action (ADP); 2015 is the critical and concluding year of the climate change negotiations initiated by the Durban COP in 2011 towards the adoption of a new “protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force” under the Convention. The Paris agreement will be implemented from As G77&China chair 2015 is particularly crucial for South Africa. 9

South Africans expectations for the 2015 agreement SA’s Expectations Multilateral Rules & Legal binding Adequacy below 2 degrees Transition to low emissions and climate reliance Fulfilment of article 2 objectives of the convention Equal priority to adaptation and mitigation with (MoI) Inclusive, fair (CBDR), and effective 10

Summary of SA Position for COP21(1) ADP Agreement should: – Be under the Convention, and in accordance with its principles and provisions in particular the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities and equity; – Be consistent with science and equity, and further enhance a multilateral rules based system in a balanced and ambitious manner; – Provide legal parity between mitigation and adaptation; and – ensure mitigation ambition keeps the world on track for global temperature increase that is well below 2 degrees Celsius from pre- industrial levels by the end of the century. Pre-2020 Workstream II – part of Durban mandate should receive equal priority; Parties to UNFCCC should urgently ratify the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol (KP2); Developed countries not participating in KP 2 to fulfil their obligation under the Convention. 11

Summary of SA Position for COP21(3) SBs Thematic Area: Finance – South Africa support Africa’s call that the 2015 agreement should also spell out the support from developed countries to the developing countries as stipulated in the Convention. – It is also important that the capitalization of the Green Climate Fund be continued in the pre period to fill the finance gap that currently exists. The GCF is supposed to mobilise $100 billion per annum from 2020 onwards. It is important to advocate the yearly targets for the capitalization of the GCF. – The COP also has to resolve the issue of sources and scale of finance for the post 2020 period. Capacity Building – South Africa has called for the establishment of the international capacity-building mechanism that can ensure coherence of this cross-cutting issue, whilst facilitating implementation of adaptation and mitigation in developing countries. – The international capacity-building mechanism under this agreement should be supported through the Financial and Technology mechanisms under the Convention and be linked to adaptation-related institutions. 12

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions Adaptation Mitigation Means of Implementation Equity INDC 13

Scope of work on adaptation A-INDC 14 Past, present & future planning Programmes and projects implemented Current sectoral needs – adaptation sectors

Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [1] Element Undertaking for the period Assumptions / MethodologiesUNFCCC context Adaptation objectives and planning Goal 1: Develop a National Adaptation Plan as part of implementing the NCRP by 2020 Goal 2: Take into account climate consideration national development and sectoral policy framework by 2020/2025 Goal 3: Strengthen the capacity of institutions, and institutionalisation of climate change policy frameworks by 2025/2030 Goal 4: Develop an early warning and reporting system for all climate adaptation sectors by 2025/2030 National Development Plan, sectoral plans and any future variants Flexible and adaptive sectoral policies that will increase institutional capability Development of national framework for vulnerability and needs assessment well before International agreement that supports a continuous refinement of South Africa’s INDC, reporting ex post for rolling five year implementation periods , ,

Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [2] Element Undertaking for the period Assumptions / MethodologiesUNFCCC context Adaptation needs and costs. Goal 5: Development of a vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs f amework by 2020 Damage costs associated with high impact climate events Emission scenarios considered are RCP 8.5 (low mitigation) and RCP 4.5 (moderate- high mitigation). Annual costs were calculated for and Subject to an international agreement that provides upfront information on support available for adaptation in the context of Article 4.7 and an assessment of adequacy support vis a vis needs

Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [3] Element Undertaking for the period Assumptions / MethodologiesUNFCCC context Adaptation investments Goal 6: Communication of past investments in adaptation Identify adaptation investments from official annual reports. The years covered are 2010 – Development & implementation of a monitoring and evaluation framework, which includes indicators, to tracking domestic investment and tracking of international support. Report on a 5 year ex-post cycle, subject to CoP determined rules that build on existing reporting mechanism/instruments

Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [4] Reported costs Estimates of present-day and future costs across all extreme events ( 2014 real billions of $US). Event typeYearsDamage costs (2014 real) Wildfires (forestry only)1982 – 2012US$ bn Storms (Hail)1995 – 2013US$ 0.06 bn Droughts1992, (2003, 2010, 2014)US$ 0.12 bn, (US$ 0.07 bn) Floods1900 – 2011US$ 5.6 bn Period10 th percentileMedian90 th percentile Present-day ( ) Low mitigation (RCP8.5) High mitigation (RCP4.5) Low mitigation (RCP8.5) High mitigation (RCP4.5)

Reported costs Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [5] For the period , an increase of 5 % in the median costs is projected under low mitigation, This rises to 11 % by By extreme-year costs reach 11 times the present-day mean, For costs may reach 19 times the present-day mean according to the CSIR projections

Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [6] Domestic investment into capacity to facilitate climate change adaptation increased from US$ 0.26 million to US$ 1.1 million from 2011 to 2015 Implementation investment increased from US$ 0.71 bn to US$ 1.88 bn from 2010 to Support from the international financial mechanisms – Adaptation fund: US$10 Million; – UNEP: US$ 3.5 Million

Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [7] Sectoral investments scaled up to 2020, 2025 and (US$ bn) 2030 (US$ bn) Agriculture and Fisheries – –4.80 Energy – – 2.93 Human settlements – – 0.16 Biodiversity – – 0.41 Water – – 4.80 disaster risk reduction – – 5.70 key programmes requiring scaling-up going forward, particularly beyond 2020 include Working for Water (WfW) and Working on Fire (WoF) Working on Wetlands estimated at Water Conservation and Water Demand Management Land Care

Framing of South African INDC Mitigation component The undertaking is premised on: – Copenhagen pledge to take Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action to enable a 34% deviation below the "business as usual" emissions growth trajectory by 2020, and a 42% deviation below the "business as usual" emissions growth trajectory by

Mitigation component 23 Conditional on Fin-, tech- & capacity building Copenhagen pledge = full potential Multilateral rules based regime Elements informed by Lima COP Periodic assessment Support for mitigation and adaptation

Mitigation component of the INDC (M-INDC) Element of para 14 of Lima decision Summary of table in discussion doc re SA’s M-INDC Reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year) PPD emissions trajectory, starting point 2016 Time frames and / or periods for implementation 2025 (firm), 2030 (indicative) and 2050 (aspirational). Consistent with 42% deviation below BAU by 2025 Range for year periods of implementation, aligned with domestic policy instruments: , , etc. Long-term aspirational goal: total GHG emissions in range Mt CO2–eq by 2050 Important policy signal Scope and coverageEconomy-wide, all sectors, six greenhouse gases (GHGs) Sources as in latest GHG inventory IPCC major categories Increased disaggregation over time 24

Mitigation component of the INDC (M-INDC) Element of para 14 of Lima decision Summary of table in discussion doc re SA’s M-INDC Planning processes, assumptions and methodological approaches Planning processes: Development and climate – NCCRWP and NDP. Legislation under consideration, will require approval by Parliament. Assumptions: Article 4.7 – extent of implementation depends on provision of support by int’l system; ambitious, fair, effective and binding multilateral agreement PPD range: As outlined in NCCRWP; informed by detailed studies of mitigation potential, have been updated and on-going improvement to move to implementation Methodologies for Estimating Emissions: 2006 IPCC guidelines Metric applied: 100-year Global Warming Potential (AR4; GHG-I uses TAR but indicates future use of AR4) Approach to AFOLU: Included, but uncertainty noted, intention to reduce over time and need support 25

Mitigation component of the INDC (M-INDC) Element of para 14 of Lima decision Summary of table in discussion doc re SA’s M-INDC How the Party considers that its intended nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious, in light of its national circumstances, and how it contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2 science and equity-based approach Relative fair share relates to science (2 °C) and equitable effort-sharing paradigm. Balanced: mitigation, adaptation and support PPD contributes by bending curve, in context of poverty Consistent with just transition to low carbon future. IPCC AR5 : remaining future global carbon budget Important flexibility over time, at national level SA expert analysis, applying Convention principles of responsibility, capability and sustainable development = carbon budget larger than the PPD trajectory range Accept other analysis gives different results Others must engage in equity analysis as well (African proposal on principle-based reference framework) 26

Support component of INDC (S-INDC) Support for both adaptation and mitigation, based on specific sectors and initiatives Support: finance, technology and capacity-building – Adaptation: total investment in adaptation increased from $US 0.64 bn to $US 2.31 bn from 2010 to Details and specific programmes in document – SA invested in mitigation - REI4P, public transport infrastructure, green economy in budget, SA Green Fund (needs to be scaled up) 27

Support component of INDC (S-INDC) Significant financing required, based on analysis of incremental costs of future mitigation – expand REI4P in next ten years: $3 billion per year – Decarbonised electricity (renewable energy and nuclear power) by estimated $ 349 billion over 2010 to 2050 – CCS: 23 Mt CO2 from coal-to-liquid - $0.45 billion – Electric vehicles - $513 billion over 2010 to 2050 – Hybrid electric vehicles: 20% by $488 billion Technologies identified include: Energy efficient lighting; Variable speed drives and efficient motors; Energy efficient appliances; Solar water heaters; Hybrid electric vehicles ; Solar PV ; Wind power; Carbon Capture and Sequestration; Nuclear ; and Advanced biofuels. Implementing mitigation system – need enhanced human and institutional capacity 28

Equity (1) A-INDC reporting and equity SA is willing to report on a 5 year ex-post cycle, subject to CoP determined rules that build on existing reporting mechanism/instruments Equity considerations in adaptation – Adaptation as a global responsibility – requires international cooperation – SA investments reported ex post, should be recognised as contribution 29

Equity (2) Mitigation – SA experts carbon budget calculated based on indicators consistent with core Convention principles of responsibility, capability and sustainable development: Gt CO2-eq for the period – Larger than area under mid- and upper-range PPD: Gt Other principle-based criteria can be applied – Chinese and Indian experts based on cumulative emissions per capita: 7-11 Gt CO2eq for 2000–2049, if a starting year of 1850 is assumed for historical responsibility Meta-analysis of different approaches, 50% and 66% probabilty of staying below 2 °C Carbon budgets for SA by others significantly smaller than PPD trajectory range – Only lower PPD within range in

Progress Account for progress in achieving its INDC under UNFCCC Fundamental basis for mitigation: regularly updated GHG inventories Biennial update report – 2014 submitted and next in 2016 Positive ‘direction of travel’ for all countries No back-sliding; cannot be weaker than Copenhagen/ Cancun, indeed should be stronger 31

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THANK YOU 33