11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Chapter 8 Decision-Making Processes 指導教授：任維廉 教授 報告學生：楊逢新 1

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes 楊逢新 2 R胖R胖小光 桃園市 打球 學歷 : 聖約翰科大學 ( 五專制 機械系 ) 高雄大學 ( 應用經濟系 ) 交通大學 ( 運輸科技與 管理學系 ) 黃明居老師研究室 1985/07/05

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes outline 1.Definitions 2.Individual Decision Making 3.Organizational Decision Making 4.Organizational Decision Making change 5.Special decision circumstances 3

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Definitions Organizational decision making – process of identifying and solving problems 1.Problem Identification Stage 2.Problem Solution Programmed Decisions – repetitive and well defined Nonprogrammed Decisions – novel and poorly defined 4

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Today’s Business Environment 5  New strategies  Reengineering  Restructuring  Mergers/Acquisitions  Downsizing  New product/market development

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Individual Decision Making 1.Rational Approach 2.Bounded Rationality Perspective 6

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Individual Decision Making 7 Rational approach – ideal method for how managers should make decisions. Bounded rationality perspective – how decisions are made under severe time and resource constraints.

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Steps in the Rational Approach 8

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Bounded Rationality Perspective 9 There is a limit to how rational managers can be—time and resource constraints  Nonprogrammed decisions Constraints and Tradeoffs  Constraints impinge the decision maker The Role of Intuition  Experience and judgment rather than logic

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Constraints and Trade-offs During Non-programmed Decision-Making 10

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Organizational Decision Making 1.Management Science Approach 2.Carnegie Model 3.The Incremental Decision Process 11

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Management Science Approach Use of statistics to identify relevant variables Removed human element Very successful for military problems Good tool for decisions where variables can be indentified and measured A drawback of management science is that quantitative data are not rich and lack tacit knowledge 12

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Carnegie Model 13

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Incremental Decision Model 1. 從發現到解決整個活動的結構因素 2. 決策中斷 （ decision interrupts ） ：過程遇到障礙， cycle back * 有考慮到動態因子：時間、環境、政策改變，重新檢討。 cycle back 14 Identific- ation Develop- ment selection cycle back

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Organizational Decision Making change 1.Combining the Incremental Process and Carnegie Model 2.Garbage Can Model 15

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes 組織學習會受問題認定與問題解決 階段所造成的不確定性所影響 為處理不確定性與複雜的問題，發 展制定決策的方法： 1.Combining the Incremental Process and Carnegie Model 2.Garbage Can Model 16

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Problem Identification and Problem Solution 17 Combining the Incremental Process and Carnegie Models

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Garbage Can Model Pattern or flow of multiple decisions Think of the whole organization Explain decision making in high uncertainty - organized anarchy: –Problematic preferences –Unclear, poorly understood technology –Turnover Streams of events instead of defined problems and solutions 18

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Illustration of Independent Streams of Events in the Garbage Can Model of Decision-Making 20

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Consequences of the Garbage Can Model 1.Solutions may be proposed even when problems do not exist 2.Choices are made without solving problems 3.Problems may persist without being solved 4.A few problems are solved 19

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Contingency Framework describes the contingency decision- making framework which brings together the two dimensions of problem consensus and technical knowledge about solutions. 21

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Contingency Framework for Using Decision Models 22

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Special Decision Circumstances Today’s environment presents high-stakes decisions that must be made quickly Managers must deal with: –High-Velocity Environments –Learning from decision mistakes –Understanding cognitive and personal biases Escalating commitment Prospect theory Groupthink Evidence-based Management Encourages dissent and diversity 23

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Q&A 1. 若組織成員的意見不一致，且無法 順利溝通，可能會造成往後成員間 的心結，造成日後決策無法推動， 該如何解決 ? 2. 在組織中，最恐怖的事情就是有背 叛者或間諜出現，那要如何在組織 中，挖出這些人 ? 並且如何處置他們 ? 24

11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes11/23/2010Decision-Making Processes Thanks for your listening 25