JEERA JEERA Reaching New Heights Kishore Narne 7 Oct 2006

Introduction  Botanical Name: Cuminum cyminum.  Variety: S-404, MC-43. Gujarat Cumin-1(GC-1), GC-2, GC-3, RS-1, UC-198, RZ-19, etc  Sowing time: It is a rabi crop sown in October – November  Harvested in February  Jeera requires moderate rainfall for its growth  110 to 115 days depending on variety

Uses  As culinary spice  Used in beverages  Ayurvedic Medicines  Biscuits, Confectionery and other spicy products  Also used in different industries for its essential oil

Where it is produced

Global Scenario  India and Egypt are the largest cumin production regions  Also produced in Iran, Syria and Turkey but only for exports  Both whole seeds and powdered seeds are internationally traded  Cumin essential oil is also becoming popular in the western hemisphere  The global consumption of cumin seeds is quite low, except in India and Middle east

Indian Scenario  India is the largest producer and consumer of cumin  The annual production ranged between 1.5 lakh metric tonnes to 2 lakh metric tonnes  Rajasthan and Gujarat are the main producing States  Significant percentage of the total production is used for domestic consumption  Exported to Japan, Brazil, US, UK, UAE etc.

Outlook

Production, Area and Yield

Figures at a glanceParticular Quantity (lakh bags) 1bag=40 to 60 kg Production in Carry over stock7-8 Total28 Export till September2 Balance Remain26 Domestic consumption15-20 Stock available for next year6-7 Expected Export in coming days2

Macro Scenario  Production Estimates for current year – Syria: 25 thousand tonnes (25% less then last year) – Turkey: thousand tonnes (6% less than last year) – Iran: 50 thousand quintal (50% less as compare to last year)  Turkey and Syria Inferior in Quality  Major producer India, Production down by 40%  No fresh arrivals in line for the next 6 months  Lower carry over

India  Currently witnessing a relief rally  Festive Demand  Sowing activity picking up  Ample soil moisture levels in Gujarat  Current prices very attractive for farmers

Technicals - Daily

Weekly

Outlook  Short term – Over Sold – Festive Demand – Quality Specifications on the Exchange – Technical Pullback

Outlook  Medium – Long Term : Bearish – Valuations are stretched – Turkey $1950 where as India prices are $2250 – Crop is expected to be huge – Acreage expected to see a sharp raise – If the whether conditions remains favorable expect a raise of 50-60% in acreage – We expect the prices to go beyond Rs.6500/qtl by Feb-Mar ‘07

Risk Factors  At this point of the year the Temperatures in Gujarat should be below 30 o C but currently are at 39 o C  There should not the rain fall with winds towards end of October  If the rains destroy the crop towards end of October then the prices may sustain above Rs /Qtl

Thank You