The Best-Laid Plans of Mice and Men; Katrina The Lessons of Space and Time James E. Mitchell, Ph. D. IT GIS Manager

Hurricane Georges September 1998

Hurricane Ivan September 2004

Hurricane Dennis July 2005

Evacuation Routes Around the New Orleans Metropolitan Area

GIS Analysis to Develop a Staged Evacuation Plan

Evacuation Phases Based on GIS Analysis

One Million Guides Distributed

2005 Louisiana Emergency Evacuation Plan 1.72 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Stage Assets and Personnel 2.50 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Evacuate Phase I 3.40 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Evacuate Phase II 4.30 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Evacuate Phase III - Contraflow 5.6 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Terminate Contraflow – Secure Assets and Personnel

2006 Emergency Evacuation Plan H-66 MOU with DOE Activated for school buses (if necessary) H-60 LANG Provides 100 bus drivers (if necessary) H-54 All Coaches at Staging Areas and are proceeding to Parish Pick Up Points H-50 Phase I Evacuation Implement Waterways/Bridges Emergency Plans Coordinate Evacuation plans with neighboring states H-40 Phase II Evacuation Provide evacuation information to ESF 15 Mobilizing Contra- flow resources H-30 Phase III Implement Contra-flow Bus operations cease H-24 Shut down of Staging Areas Completed H-6 Contra-flow resources are secured H-120 Monitoring the Storm Alert Districts Review Plans & Procedures DOTD EOC - Partial Activation H-102 Mobilize Coach and Pet Transportation and Staging Areas DOTD EOC – Selected support agency representatives activated H-96 Staff State EOC Contra-flow, Levee, Waterway/Bridge Coordinators on Alert Implement LOOP Emergency Plan H-94 Staging Areas Operational H-90 Coaches begin arriving H-72 Fully staff DOTD EOC Damage Assessment & Contra-flow plans activated DOTD instructs contractors to clear construction projects on evacuation routes. Monitoring of Transportation Infrastructure Calculate and estimate the potential amount of debris Staff State Police Traffic Control Center

HURREVAC Storm Forecasts to Support Emergency Management

H-120 Monitor storm, alert Districts, review plans, and partial Activation of DOTD EOC

H-102 Mobilize Coach and Pet Transportation and Staging Areas, activate selected DOTD EOC support agency representatives

H-96 Staff State EOC, alert Contra-flow, Levee, Waterway & Bridge Coordinators implement LOOP Emergency Plan

H-72 Fully staff DOTD EOC, activate Damage Assessment & Contra-flow plans, instruct contractors to clear construction projects on evacuation routes, monitor transportation infrastructure, estimate potential amount of debris, staff State Police Traffic Control Center

H-60 LANG Provides 100 bus drivers (if necessary)

H-54 All Coaches at Staging Areas and are proceeding to Parish Pick Up Points

H-50 Phase I Evacuation Implement Waterways and Bridges Emergency Plans Coordinate evacuation plans with neighboring states

H-40 Phase II Evacuation Provide evacuation information to ESF 15 Mobilizing Contra-flow resources

H-30 Phase III Evacuation Implement Contra-flow Bus operations cease

H-6 Contra-flow terminated and resources secured

What Really Happened? H Initiation of DOTD Emergency Operations (H-72) H-28 - Phase I Evacuation (H-50) H-25 - Phase II Evacuation (H-40) H-21 - Phase III Evacuation (H-30) H+4 - Contra-flow Ceases (H-6)

Results The Most Successful Evacuation of a Major Metropolitan Area in History 1.38 Million People Evacuated 66 Hour Plan Completed in 43.5 Hours –10 Hours of Contra-flow Added No Major incidents to Impede Operation –Breakdowns –Out of Gas –Crashes –Medical Emergencies

Conclusions Timelines are Important! –They provide a single procedure to coordinate multiple participants –They provide guidance for what to do now, and what to do next –They provide a context for drills to practice response –They provide a yardstick for progress during an event Flexibility is Important! –Timeline boundaries must build-in some “play” to allow for dynamic situations –Missing a milestone does not mean failure –Timelines can be slowed or accelerated to meet situational needs