国际宏观经济政策 理论与实例 Spring, 2005

Instructor  何茵  朗润园 620  Tel ：  ：

T.A.  史晓霞

Textbooks  Macroeconomics, N. Gregory Mankiw World Publisher  《宏观经济学》 ( 第 4 版 ) 格里高利 曼昆 人民大学出版社， 2000 年 参考书：《全球视角的宏观经济学》 捷弗里 · 萨科斯等著，费方域等译 上海三联书店 · 上海人民出版社 1997

Grading  Homework ： 10%  Project: 20%  Quiz: 10%  Mid-term: 30%  Final: 30%

Group Project  Anything you feel interested in Macroeconomics  Paper (10%) --- short  Presentation (10%) --- peer evaluation

Group Project  Paper 1. Raise the question 2. Existing literature 3. Your hypothesis or analysis Tables or graphs w/ data are preferred Some econometrics analysis is a plus

Economics  Jacob Viner (Harvard, ) --- “a thing that the economists do”  John Maynard Keynes (Cambridge, ) --- “an easy subject, at which few excel!”  Lionel Robbins (Cambridge, ) Economics Economics is a science that studies human behavior as a relationship between ends (wants) and scarce means (scarcity) that have alternate use.

Economics  Studies human behavior --- Uncertainty *** It depends… *** on what? --- factors Why? --- intuitions How? --- logic Conclusions?

Economics  Should you get married? Well, it depends. (Yes! You’re right! ) the one --- the one? --- she/he want to get married as well? --- age --- personality & life style --- psychological cost ……

Economics  Should the developing countries liberalize the foreign investment? --- Type Portfolio (stock market; financial system) Direct (form;sectors;areas) --- Scale ……

Reasons to Learn Macroeconomics 1. It affects society’s well-being 2. It affects individual well-being 3. It affects politics

Example (Unemployment)  Social impact --- Each 1% increase in the unemployment rate is associated with:  920 more suicides  650 more homicides  4000 more people admitted to state mental institutions  3300 more people sent to state prisons  37,000 more deaths  Increases in domestic violence and homelessness

Example (Unemployment)  Individual impact --- consumption --- investment --- other individual decisions  Politics --- election

Contents in Macroeconomics 1. The economy in the long run 2. The economy in the short run 3. Policy debate 4. Open economy policy

The economy in the LR (Growth)

The economy in the LR (Unemployment)

The economy in the LR (Money and Inflation)

The Economy in the Short Run  Introduction to economic fluctuations  Aggregate Demand  Aggregate Supply

Policy Debate  How to make policy in an uncertain world? 1) Should policy be active or passive 2) Should policy be conducted by rule or by discretion?

Government Debt & Budget Deficit  Tradition views of government debt  Ricardian Equivalence  Other thoughts about government debt

Government Debt & Budget Deficit

Open Economy Policy  Exchange rate  The Mundell-Fleming model  The Small Open Economy (SOE) under floating exchange rates  The SOE under fixed exchange rates  Should exchange rates be floating or fixed?