INVEST IN MAXIMISER (EQUITY) IS IT SAFE???

There are three basic asset categories that an individual can invest in to accumulate wealth. These are CASH, DEBT & EQUITY. Within the three basic categories, it has been seen that EQUITY as an asset class over the long term tends to outperform the return in other asset categories. Over the last 24 years, the BSE sensex has given a compounded annualized return of 17.05% since its launch in April Thus, if one had invested Rs.1 lac in Sensex stocks in April 1979, the amount would have grown to over Rs.47 lac in 2003! PAST PERFORMANCE

RETURNS FROM VARIOUS ASSET CLASS % 10.8 % 7.33 %

WHY DOES EQUITY PROVIDE SUPERIOR RETURNS ? This is because when we buy Equity we buy the growth prospects of wealth creating companies i.e. entities where rate of growth exceeds their cost of capital. Mutual Fund managers for long have been known to accumulate those companies, which have strong growth prospects and are known wealth creators. Which are some of these companies that are the favorites of fund managers? According to a popularity index created by CRISIL, the top 10 holdings across equity diversified mutual funds in July 2003 were as in the next slide: DO THEY FEATURE IN OUR MAXIMISER ? Press Enter

CRISIL POPULARITY INDEX – JULY 2003 CompanyIndex 1State Bank of India HPCL Reliance Industries Ltd Infosys Technologies Ltd ITC Limited Tata Iron & Steel Co. Ltd Tata Motors BHEL Grasim Industries Ltd Larsen & Toubro Ltd.28.74

SOME FIGURES Reliance Industries An investment of Rs.1000 at inception in January 1978 would have become about Rs.173,000 in 25 years or a CAGR* of about 22.89% Infosys First public issue in 1993 at Rs.80. CAGR since listing works out to a mind-boggling 83.93%. Rs.1000 invested with the company would today be worth about Rs.4.43lacs Hero Honda World’s single largest two-wheeler company. The share has returned a CAGR since initial listing of about 27.09% *CAGR – Compounded Annual Growth Rate

ICICI PRU MAXIMISER 52.2% since inception (as on December 31, 2003)

Sundaram SKORe study (Sundaram Key to Optimum Returns) A proprietary study by Sundaram Mutual Fund also shows how staying invested over the longer term reduces volatility of returns in Equity. The SKORe took 1 year rolling returns for the Sensex from April 1979 to March 2001 at intervals of 1 month each. For eg: You could start at April 1979 and hold till April 1980, that gives you one year return. Then move on to May 1979 and hold till May 1980, that gives you the second one year return, and so on till March Of the year returns so generated, it ignored top and bottom 5% of the returns, as these were relatively rare occurrences. Of the remaining returns, the best one year period yielded +90%, the worst yielded -26%. WHAT IF I HOLD ON FOR 5 OR 10 YEARS ?

Results are graphically indicated below: 1 YEAR HOLDING PERIOD BEST RETURN WORST RETURN 5 YEAR HOLDING PERIOD BEST RETURN WORST RETURN 10 YEAR HOLDING PERIOD BEST RETURN +90% +44% +32% -26% -1% +12% WORST RETURN

What do we understand from this ? As the holding period lengthens, the worst returns actually get better and the variation between the best and the worst return reduces.

Does Timing the Entry Work? According to a study undertaken by Business Standard, two- thirds of the equity market’s gains came in just 10 months over the last 24 years. The chances of correctly identifying these 10 months for an average investor are pretty remote. The study also indicates that Rs.1lac invested in 1979 would have become : Rs.34,49,000 if stayed invested always Rs.3,65,000 if missed 10 best months Rs.86,000 if missed 20 best months Rs.1000 if missed 72 best months

Therefore the only realistic way toward achieving wealth in the equities market is to stay invested over the long-term and not in timing the entry.

What is the ideal Time Horizon? No single answer to this question but definitely longer than 5 years, it would also vary according to the objectives of the investor and targeted return. A study undertaken by Business World covering Sensex movements from April 1979 till February 2002 concluded that 12 years was the ideal time horizon for holding equities. Type of Return5 years7 years10 years11 years12 years Average Return19.24%19.61%21.65%21.70%20.88% Maximum Return56.24%42.43%34.98%33.46%32.93% Minimum Return-5.03%-7.36%3.55%5.29%10.70%

PRODIGIOUS ‘INVESTMENT’ WEALTH CREATOR – Warren Buffett Bill Gates (world’s richest man)  worth - $46 billion (about Rs.2,00,000 crore) Warren Buffett (number two spot)  worth - $36 billion (Rs.1,65,000 crore)  Started out with $ 1,00,000 (< than Rs.50lac)

Therefore my Friend Timing is not your Friend But, Time is your Friend

SO, IS EQUITY SAFE ? DECIDE FOR YOURSELF…..