Variables and Relationships Understanding Catastrophe Causes, Consequences and Coordination

Catastrophes Take place when hazards interact with vulnerabilityTake place when hazards interact with vulnerability A hazard is an agent that may cause human harmA hazard is an agent that may cause human harm Examples include natural, technological and man-made hazardsExamples include natural, technological and man-made hazards

Hazards Can be impressively severeCan be impressively severe –Arizona meteor crater –Great Sumatra earthquake –China earthquake –Hurricane Katrina – Spanish Flu –Bhopal –9/11 –Future threats

Rethinking Hazards We have very little control over hazardsWe have very little control over hazards Focusing on hazards downplays the human elementFocusing on hazards downplays the human element Scholars suggest we reconsider the “naturalness” of disastersScholars suggest we reconsider the “naturalness” of disasters We need to concentrate more on human activities that exacerbate disastersWe need to concentrate more on human activities that exacerbate disasters

The Role of People Environmental DegradationEnvironmental Degradation –Tropical diseases may spread –Desertification may occur –Sea levels may rise –Abrupt ice age may result –Storms may increase in frequency and intensity

The Role of People (cont.) Population GrowthPopulation Growth –May encourage people to move to hazard- prone areas –May force people to live in densely populated areas

The Role of People (cont.) Resource DepletionResource Depletion –Watersheds and forests may be lost –Wetlands are in jeopardy –Water is becoming scarce –Food security is in question –Petroleum based economics may collapse

The Role of People (cont.) Spread of DiseasesSpread of Diseases –Antibiotics may result in mutations –Transportation may spread pathogens

The Role of People (cont.) Changes in warfareChanges in warfare –Terrorists continue to threaten and attack –They target civilians –Weapons have evolved

Vulnerability Is the dependent variable in catastrophesIs the dependent variable in catastrophes Refers to proneness and limited capabilitiesRefers to proneness and limited capabilities Has two schools of thought: social vulnerability and holistic vulnerabilityHas two schools of thought: social vulnerability and holistic vulnerability

Social Vulnerability Social relationships (political and economic) are to blame for disastersSocial relationships (political and economic) are to blame for disasters Law, employment, classes, industry, education, and networks have an impactLaw, employment, classes, industry, education, and networks have an impact The vulnerable include the poor, minorities, women, children, the elderly, the disabled, prisoners, etc.The vulnerable include the poor, minorities, women, children, the elderly, the disabled, prisoners, etc.

Holistic Vulnerability Accepts premise of social vulnerability schoolAccepts premise of social vulnerability school Recognizes other causes: choice of location, engineering, degradation, warning systems, operational mistakes, evacuation decisions, planning, EOC management, apathy, urbanization, diet/exercise, technology, religious beliefs, education, coordination and other factors have an impactRecognizes other causes: choice of location, engineering, degradation, warning systems, operational mistakes, evacuation decisions, planning, EOC management, apathy, urbanization, diet/exercise, technology, religious beliefs, education, coordination and other factors have an impact

Group Project Divide into groups (of 5 people each)Divide into groups (of 5 people each) Answer the question “what are other potential causes of vulnerability and catastrophe?”Answer the question “what are other potential causes of vulnerability and catastrophe?” Invite a student from each group to reportInvite a student from each group to report

Variable Interaction The equation H+V=C is much too simpleThe equation H+V=C is much too simple Some events are not suddenSome events are not sudden A single hazard may trigger other hazards and interact in dynamic waysA single hazard may trigger other hazards and interact in dynamic ways ExamplesExamples

Catastrophes are Complicated Mileti’s work on the physical, social and built environmentsMileti’s work on the physical, social and built environments The East Bay Hills FireThe East Bay Hills Fire

A Model of Catastrophes External and internal hazardsExternal and internal hazards Interaction with vulnerabilityInteraction with vulnerability Production of disastersProduction of disasters Disasters result in increased vulnerabilityDisasters result in increased vulnerability Model includes physical and social environments as well as liabilities and capabilitiesModel includes physical and social environments as well as liabilities and capabilities

Your Model? Develop your own model of catastrophesDevelop your own model of catastrophes Draw your modelDraw your model Discuss it in 2-3 pages and explain its central featuresDiscuss it in 2-3 pages and explain its central features

Catastrophes and Society Are non-routine social problemsAre non-routine social problems They are unusualThey are unusual They create new and unforeseen challengesThey create new and unforeseen challenges ExamplesExamples

Impact Medical care becomes problematicMedical care becomes problematic Sheltering is difficultSheltering is difficult Public information is nearly impossiblePublic information is nearly impossible Clean up and debris removal is almost insurmountableClean up and debris removal is almost insurmountable Rebuilding is a lengthy processRebuilding is a lengthy process Outside involvement is requiredOutside involvement is required

Power Point Presentation Select one catastropheSelect one catastrophe Identify causesIdentify causes Discuss primary, secondary and tertiary consequencesDiscuss primary, secondary and tertiary consequences Should last no more than 10 minutesShould last no more than 10 minutes

Intervention Points MitigationMitigation –Serious and thorough risk assessments –Environmental protection –Construction standards –Regulations –Health status and medical capacity –Terrorism prevention

Intervention Points (cont.) PreparednessPreparedness –All pre-disaster functions (community education, training, grant management, exercises) –All post-disaster functions (particularly evacuation, sheltering, communications and resource management)

Intervention Points (cont.) ResponseResponse –Vulnerable populations –Damage and impact assessments –Flexible deployment of rescue personnel –Inter-state and international mutual aid compacts –Coordination

Intervention Points (cont.) RecoveryRecovery –Well-crafted plans –Debris management –Disaster assistance programs –Rebuilding

Writing Assignment 8-10 page paper8-10 page paper Addressing a single intervention point in detailAddressing a single intervention point in detail Focusing on catastrophesFocusing on catastrophes Including lessons learnedIncluding lessons learned Illustrating difference to disastersIllustrating difference to disasters Must provide concrete recommendationsMust provide concrete recommendations

Coordination Models Bureaucratic ModelBureaucratic Model –Centralized –Top down –Rigid –Self-serving individuals

Coordination Models (cont.) Problem Solving ModelProblem Solving Model –Decentralized –Bottom-up –Flexible –Altruistic individuals

Strengths and Implications The Bureaucratic ModelThe Bureaucratic Model The Problem Solving ModelThe Problem Solving Model The need for inclusion and integrationThe need for inclusion and integration

Class Activity Guest speakersGuest speakers –Fire fighter –Emergency manager Questions about coordination modelsQuestions about coordination models

Conclusion Catastrophes result from hazards and vulnerabilityCatastrophes result from hazards and vulnerability Many variables are involved and in complicated waysMany variables are involved and in complicated ways Impacts of catastrophes are significantImpacts of catastrophes are significant Special measures are requiredSpecial measures are required Two models can help us manage catastrophesTwo models can help us manage catastrophes