The Gulf of Maine Integrated Model System: A Hindcast Experiment from 1995 to 2006 The UMASSD Team: C. Chen, G. Cowles, S. Hu, Q. Xu, P. Xue and D. Stuebe The WHOI Team: R. C. Beardsley, C. Davis, R. Ji and D. Limeburner The MIT Team: P. Rizzolli and J. Wei Website:

Regional domain MM5 (resolution: 30 km) Non-hydrostatic Wind stress, heat flux, air pressure, precipitation via evaporation Local domain MM5 (resolution: 10 km) ETA (32 km) Hydrostatic Air stations Buoy data Satellite data Local network SST (9 km) Local buoys Assimilation Nested The Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank MM5 Weather Hindcast/Forecast Model System Local domain Regional domain Sites of Surface Buoys 1.Hindcast assimilation for years On-line forecast system

First Generation Second Generation Horizontal Resolution: km in the coastal region 31-sigma levels in the vertical Horizontal Resolution: km in the coastal region 31-sigma levels in the vertical

256 Processors (Intel 3.4 GHz Pentium 4) 256 Gigabytes RAM, Infiniband High Speed Network 7 Terabytes disk space Third generation of GOM FVCOM Horizontal resolution: m in the coastal region Generalized terrain-following coordinates 46 layers: 10 uniform layers in the surface and bottom boundary layers, respectively

Penobscot Bay

Boston harbor area

1.Analysis of the 27 meteorological model results (H. Song with helps from C. Chen, R. C. Beardsley, G. Cowles); 2. Model-data comparison-GoMOOS, NS and New England Shelf (C. Chen, G. Cowles, D. Limeburner, R. C. Beardsley, Q. Xu and P. Xue); 3. Data assimilation experiments (OI and Ensemble Kalman Filters) (J. Wei, Q. Xu, P. Rizzoli, C. Chen, R. C. Beardsley); 4. Convert the GoM integrated model system to the Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS), with upgraded meteorological model (WRF) (G. Cowles, C. Chen, R. C. Beardsley) The Works Completed Since the Last Workshop

Wind stress spectrum calculated from the hourly wind fields Annual peak 3-7 days

Monthly averaged Ekman Flux onto Georges Bank

Ts: SST Ta: Air-temperature P: precipitation E: evaporation Qnet: net flux Qsw: short-wave Qsen: sensible Qlat: latent Qlw: long-wave  : wind stress

Monthly-averaged surface wind stress

Monthly-averaged net heat flux

Monthly-averaged precipitation

January-March Qnet (W/m 2 ) Surface wind stress Surface net heat flux Decade scale 1998

NAO index via normalized negative wind stress (Jan-March) NAO index via normalized heat flux (Jan-March)

14(8) 7(6) 1(9) 1980 strong wind year for GB, 1990 weak wind year for GB. (numbers in bracket is for year 1990)

2002 Buoy A: 2 m Buoy B: 2 m

Buoy C: 2 m Buoy E: 2 m 2002

FVCOM Model Validation: Comparison with CMO Observations Time Frame: Aug 1996 to Jun 1997 Location: New England Shelf, SW of Nantucket # Moorings: 4 (Central, Alongshore, Inshore, Offshore) Oceanic Variables: velocity, temp, conductivity, bottom pressure, bottom stress. Atmospheric Variables: wind stress, heat flux, buoyancy flux. Steve Lentz’s data Cowles and Lentz’s work

Temperature (Celsius) during CMO Period at Central Site August June 1997 Observed FVCOM

Subtidal Surface Current During CMO: Observed (red) FVCOM (black) Along Isobath (Above, ~east) and Cross Isobath (Below, ~north)

N1/N2 Comparison between observed and model-computed surface water temperatures and subtidal velocities at site N2 in Nantucket Sound. No assimilation is included. Mooring data from R. Limeburner. Mooring Sites

April 2002 May 2002 June 2002 T: Temperature: red dots T/S: Temperature&salinity: blue dots OI Data Assimilation Experiments

Without OI With OI Assimilation

Without OI With OI Assimilation

Without OI With OI Assimilation

GOMOOS station B GoMOOS Mooring Site B First generation GOM FVCOM

Temperature field at day 1 after assimilation With EnKF Without EnKF

Time series of temperature at GOMOOS station B

Velocity field at day 1 after assimilation With EnKF Without EnKF

Time series of velocity at GoMOOS station B U (m/s) V (m/s)

MASS Coastal FVCOM Surface Wave Model Generalized Ecosystem Model (FVCOM Module) Sediment Transport Model (FVCOM Module) Local Weather Model (WRF) North American Meso-scale (NAM) Weather Model Satellite SST Buoy Winds Insolation Satellite SST, U,V Buoy T,S,U,V Freshwater Input Global Tidal Model Under developed Existing Models FVCOM System KEY Heat Flux Wind Stress P-E U,V PAR Data BC’s U,V Waves, Langmuir Cells Form Drag assimilation Multi-Stage Zooplankton Model (IBM and concentration-based) Nutrients, Phytoplankton Ocean Colors Fish Larval Model (IBM and concentration-based) VPR Larval data GoM/GB FVCOM BC’s Inflow Groundwater Input Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS)

30 km 10 km 9 km 3 km WRF MM5

5-day forecast 3 day hindcast 5-day forecast 3 day hindcast : The time starting for a 5 day forecast : The time ending for a 5 day forecast : The time zone for a 3 day hindcast with inclusion of the data asimilation : The time updating the initial condition for a 5 day forecast zone. ETA/WRF regional/coastal forecast SWAN/FVCOM regional forecast SWAN/FVCOM coastal forecast

MM5 WRF Time: 0:00 GMT April

MM5 Surface Heat Flux WRF Surface Heat Flux Time: 0:00 GMT April

3 km resolution results of WRF: Surface wind vectors and net heat flux 0:00 GMT April

Non-hydrostatic FVCOM (Lai’s thesis work)

On-going Activities 1.Conduct the data assimilation experiments with OI and K-Filters-partially have been completed for selected year experiments 2.Validate the FVCOM-based unstructured grid surface wave model (SWAN-US). 3.Improve the model dynamics with more accurate and complete river discharges