Data Integrity Issues, Natural Variability and Climate Change

Global Climate Change Global surface data bases suffer from serious issues that produce a warm bias and render them useless for an accurate trend analysis Global surface data bases suffer from serious issues that produce a warm bias and render them useless for an accurate trend analysis Temperatures have begun to decline, and are negatively correlated with CO2 Temperatures have begun to decline, and are negatively correlated with CO2 Oceans and sun cycles and volcanism correlate far better with temperatures including the recent cooling Oceans and sun cycles and volcanism correlate far better with temperatures including the recent cooling

Global Data Base Issues Station dropout (>2/3rds since 1990) especially rural Station dropout (>2/3rds since 1990) especially rural Missing monthly data increased tenfold after 1990 Missing monthly data increased tenfold after 1990 Urban adjustment not used or totally inadequate even as world population increased 1.5 to 6.7 billion since 1900 Urban adjustment not used or totally inadequate even as world population increased 1.5 to 6.7 billion since 1900 Siting for vast majority of observing sites does not meet WMO or NOAA standards with significant warm biases Siting for vast majority of observing sites does not meet WMO or NOAA standards with significant warm biases HO83 had warm bias not corrected for. ASOS instruments designed by FAA for aviation not climate HO83 had warm bias not corrected for. ASOS instruments designed by FAA for aviation not climate Manual or black box adjustments are made with no visibility for quality control or validation Manual or black box adjustments are made with no visibility for quality control or validation Oceans cover 70% of the globe and data bases have major data gaps and questions about how much and when to adjust for changing measurement techniques Oceans cover 70% of the globe and data bases have major data gaps and questions about how much and when to adjust for changing measurement techniques How can we ever hope to detect trends to a precision of a tenth of a degree?

Station Dropout and Global Temps Most were rural stations A discontinuity in both at the same time Deg C

Jonathan Drake, using GHCN

Suggesting a distribution issue

Number of Missing Months For the 110 Russian weather stations reporting weather data continuously from 1971 to 2001, the total number of missing monthly observations each year (McKitrick and Michaels)

SVERDLOVSK, RUSSIA JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Urban Heat Island Effect In cities, vertical walls, steel and concrete absorb the sun’s heat and are slow to cool at night. More and more of the world is urbanized. Cities grow around airports where we measure temperatures In cities, vertical walls, steel and concrete absorb the sun’s heat and are slow to cool at night. More and more of the world is urbanized. Cities grow around airports where we measure temperatures Peer review suggests adjustment is necessary. Peer review suggests adjustment is necessary. Oke (1973) showed even towns can have warming (town of C or 3F) especially in winter Oke (1973) showed even towns can have warming (town of C or 3F) especially in winter Zhou et al (2005) have shown global data bases (for China) not properly adjusted for urbanization. Block (2004) showed the same problem exists in central Europe. Zhou et al (2005) have shown global data bases (for China) not properly adjusted for urbanization. Block (2004) showed the same problem exists in central Europe. Hinkel et al (2003) showed even the village of Barrow, Alaska with a population of 4600 has shown a warming of 2.2C (3.4F) in winter over surrounding rural areas Hinkel et al (2003) showed even the village of Barrow, Alaska with a population of 4600 has shown a warming of 2.2C (3.4F) in winter over surrounding rural areas Insufficient adjustments introduces a warm bias in data Insufficient adjustments introduces a warm bias in data

Counties in CA with >1 million Population +4F Counties in CA with between 100,000 and 1 million population +1F Counties in CA with less than 100,000 Population 0F Goodridge 1996

Data Centers and UHI NCDC has removed UHI adjustment (Karl 1988) from USHCN in version 2 (2007) NCDC has removed UHI adjustment (Karl 1988) from USHCN in version 2 (2007) NOAA GHCN and Hadley CRUT3v don’t specifically adjust for UHI which requires metadata (siting, population, etc) they don’t have. Instead they apply a C uncertainty per century to the data NOAA GHCN and Hadley CRUT3v don’t specifically adjust for UHI which requires metadata (siting, population, etc) they don’t have. Instead they apply a C uncertainty per century to the data GISS applied a satellite light based UHI adjustment to USHCN and attempts a global UHI adjustment but without good population data, McIntyre finds their adjustments for global urban areas are as often up as down GISS applied a satellite light based UHI adjustment to USHCN and attempts a global UHI adjustment but without good population data, McIntyre finds their adjustments for global urban areas are as often up as down

USHCN Change Point Algorithm NOAA’s NCDC replaced the USHCN urban adjustment with a Change Point Algorithms designed to detect “previously undocumented inhomogenieties”. NOAA’s NCDC replaced the USHCN urban adjustment with a Change Point Algorithms designed to detect “previously undocumented inhomogenieties”. It is better suited to detect sudden discontinuities signifying changes like station moves or large local land use changes It is better suited to detect sudden discontinuities signifying changes like station moves or large local land use changes It can’t be expected to find the slow ramp of temperature associated with urban growth or of the gradual land use changes identified by Runnals and Oke (2006). It can’t be expected to find the slow ramp of temperature associated with urban growth or of the gradual land use changes identified by Runnals and Oke (2006).

Tahoe City, CA Tennis court added in early 1980s

Sacramento urban growth and warming will not be seen

0.75F Suggests NOAA algorithm does not work and that UHI is SIGNIFICANT Proof of man-made global warming but the men are in Asheville

Widespread Siting Issues Shown

USHCN Station Hopkinsville, KY (Pielke et al 2006) Max/Min sensor near John Martin Reservoir, CO (Davey 2005)

Only 11% of the stations meet standards

Contamination of the Data Bases Numerour peer-reviewed papers ignored by the IPCC and the data centers have estimated that these problems with the observing networks may account for up to one half the warming since 1880 (Kalney and Cai, de laat and Maurellis, Pielke and Davey, Pielke et al (numerous), Lin and Pielke, Michaels and Balling, Michaels and McKitrick, Runnals and Oke) Numerour peer-reviewed papers ignored by the IPCC and the data centers have estimated that these problems with the observing networks may account for up to one half the warming since 1880 (Kalney and Cai, de laat and Maurellis, Pielke and Davey, Pielke et al (numerous), Lin and Pielke, Michaels and Balling, Michaels and McKitrick, Runnals and Oke)

NASA GISS US DATA +0.18F Even with the errors, not much real warming How good is it ?

Lampasas, TX moved from a park like area to this street-side location in 2000 So called NASA homogeneity adjustment cooled off the early 1900s but did not adjust for this obvious change. The result - a larger warming trend when a cooling trend was underway.

Daily Record Highs in June and July Des Moines, Iowa

WORLD +0.25C/+0.45F World Population (Billions) NO UHI ADJUSTMENT

5 of the last 7 decades temperatures have fallen as CO2 rose! 5 of the last 7 decades have seen cooling since WWII in the post war boom US

Mauna Loa Seasonally Adjusted CO2 - ESRL UAH MSU Lower Trop Temp Anomaly r = Hadley CRUT3v Temp Anomaly r =

Natural Climate Drivers Ocean cycles - annual and decadal Ocean cycles - annual and decadal Solar cycles – longer term Solar cycles – longer term Volcanism Volcanism

UKMO and ENSO, NASA and PDO Prof. Chris Folland (Jan 2008) from the Met Office Hadley Centre said: "Phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña have a significant influence on global surface temperature” Prof. Chris Folland (Jan 2008) from the Met Office Hadley Centre said: "Phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña have a significant influence on global surface temperature” Hansen in 1999 said “We suggest that further warming in the United States to a level rivaling the 1930s is likely in the next decade, but reliable prediction requires better understanding of decadal oscillations of ocean temperature.”

LA NINA EL NINO EL NINO COLD WARM COLD WARM

ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

warm cold

COLD WARM COLDWARM

Mostly El Ninos Mostly La Ninas PDO - COLD MODEPDO + WARM MODE COLD Wolter

R= 0.74

Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation

Mean ocean temperature anomalies in the Atlantic from 0 to 70N NOAA CDC

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Correlates with northern hemisphere warmth, statistically significant in places Tripole like the PDO

Major Volcanic Eruptions

What about these extensive global cooling events Cooling events then recent warming from variations in volcanic activity ( a measure of level of sulfate aerosols) (NASA GISS)

Years with more than ½ STD departures stratospheric aerosols January to December Annual Temperature Anomalies More than 1/2 STD Above More than ½ STD Below Data NASA GISS, CDC Last 8-10 years After major eruptionsDuring quiet periods

^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ SOLAR SUNSPOT CYCLES

Quieter cycle periods Dalton Minimum Grand Maximum Dalton Minimum Grand Maximum

Cyclical Factors - Solar Direct Effects Direct Effects Changes in solar brightness (irradiance) (Baliunas, Soon, Hoyt, Schatten, Scafetta/West) Changes in solar brightness (irradiance) (Baliunas, Soon, Hoyt, Schatten, Scafetta/West) Indirect Effects Indirect Effects UV (which changes 6-8% in 11 year cycle) warming through ozone chemistry high up in low and mid latitudes (Labitzke, Shindell at NASA GISS) UV (which changes 6-8% in 11 year cycle) warming through ozone chemistry high up in low and mid latitudes (Labitzke, Shindell at NASA GISS) Active sun reduces low cloudiness by diffusing galactic cloud forming cosmic rays (Svensmark) Active sun reduces low cloudiness by diffusing galactic cloud forming cosmic rays (Svensmark) Scaffetta and West (2007) using Total Solar irradiance as a proxy for the total solar effect suggested the sun may account for 69% of the changes since 1900

R 2 = 0.59 R 2 = 0.64 for 3 year lag temp vs TSI NCDC Annual Mean US Temperature vs Hoyt Schatten TSI TSI as a proxy for total solar effect

CYCLES CYCLES SUN AND OCEAN CYCLES Annual Averages from PDO+AMO TSI

Solar TSI Ocean PDO+AMO US Annual Temps

A total of over 564 so far this transition 23 to 24

Solar Length vs T (Friis Christensen) During the latest about 20 years, temperature has increased more than expected -based on the length of the solar cycle The effect of enhanced greenhouse effect is finally seen The climatic effect of solar activity is not fully described by the length of the solar cycle No, it is evidence the global data bases are contaminated

(Cliverd et al., 2007) Dalton Minimum

Summary Temperature trends are exaggerated by many issues most notably urbanization and siting. Warming in recent decades smaller than assumed and are of a cyclical nature Temperature trends are exaggerated by many issues most notably urbanization and siting. Warming in recent decades smaller than assumed and are of a cyclical nature Natural cycles in the ocean and on the sun correlate far better with temperatures than CO2 Natural cycles in the ocean and on the sun correlate far better with temperatures than CO2 The quiet sun and ocean cooling suggest cooling not warming in our future The quiet sun and ocean cooling suggest cooling not warming in our future