Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s JapanPalau Typhoon Landfall U.S.(NSF/ONR), EU, Japan, Korea, [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] U.S.(NSF/ONR), EU, Japan, Korea, [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] WMOWCRP/WWRPAsian/IndianMonsoon U.S.ONR/NSFTCS-08 [NRL P-3, WC-130] THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts

THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T- PARC)/ Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008 August-September 2008 Initial motivation from Asian and North American Regional Committees with significant EU participation and financial contribution Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall, typhoon and extratropical transition (ET) with research interests in: –tropical cyclone formation –intensification –Motion/track –decay and/or ET North American societal impacts from downstream effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact weather with research interests in –tropical and midlatitude predictability –tropical cyclones, »ET –intense extratropical cyclogenesis International Collaborators: U.S. (NSF, ONR), Germany, Japan, China, South Korea, Canada, France, U.K., Taiwan

Forecast Uncertainty At Recurvature and During ET Results in Major Societal Impacts for East Asia TY Tokage, October 2004 Tracks from the JMA ensemble prediction system Tracks supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa

Adaptive observations and plane sequencing NRL Singular vector sensitivity for TY Man-Yi (2007) SV Graphic supplied by Dr.Carolyn Reynolds, NRL Monterey

THORPEX Working Group on Predictability and Dynamical Processes Interest Group 4: The Impact of Extratropical Transition on the Downstream Midlatitude Predictability Sarah Jones 1 and Patrick Harr 2 1 Universitat Karlsruhe 2 Naval Postgraduate School GFS 500 hPa ensemble +108 h VT 1200 UTC 20 Sep 03 GFS ensemble members UTC 16 Sep hPa height (m) at a 240 m interval Hurricane Isabel

TY Nabi TY Saola Impacts on Numerical Model Performance Hurricane Maria MOTIVATION: IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTS

29/08 30/08 31/08 01/09 02/09 03/09 04/09 05/09 06/09 07/09 08/09 09/09 Variability among ensemble members as a measure of the predictability downstream from an ET event

Summary: Major Science Issues Mechanisms - Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics - influence of TC structure - outflow - diabatic process and their impacts on the midlatitude flow - Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics Tropical cyclone core region Tropical cyclone- midlatitude interface Midlatitude impact region

Summary: Major Science Issues Mechanisms - Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics - influence of TC structure - outflow - warm frontogenesis and its impact on the midlatitude flow - Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics Predictability (understanding and assessment) - Ensemble spread - Forecast error growth - Timing/extent/persistence of the downstream response - Sensitivities to initial conditions and their propagation throughout the forecast cycle Predictability (increase) - Predict the reduction in forecast error variance due to supplemental/targeted observations - test new strategies and observational systems - Data assimilation strategies, impacts.

200 hPa meridional wind anomalies Period of TY Nabi and pronounced downstream response Period of TY Saola and lack of a pronounced downstream response

Ex-TY Nabi Ex-TY Saola

DLR FALCON 20-E5 D-CMET OKO – 1 (36.5 o N, o E) 420 n mi FL – 2 (38.5 o N, 136 o E) 307 n mi 2 – 3 (40 o N,133 o E) 191 n mi 3 – 4 (42 o N,136 o E) 209 n mi 4 – MSJ 293 n mi 1470 n mi Dropwindsondes at waypoints and 60 n mi spacing DLR FALCON 20-E5 D-CMET MSJ – 1 (42 o N, 150 o E) 457 n mi FL – 2 (40 o N, 150 o E) 138 n mi 2 – 3 (38 o N,145 o E) 191 n mi 3 – OKO 209 n mi 995 n mi Dropwindsondes at waypoints and 60 n mi spacing NRL P-3 all FL 150 OKO – 1 (33 o N,141 o E) 212 n mi 1 – 2 (30 o N, o E) 225 n mi 2 – 3 (31.5 o N, 146 o E) 232 n mi 3 – 4 (35 o N, o E) 315 n mi 4 – OKO 185 n mi 1169 n mi Drops at waypoints and 60 n mi intervals Schematic Combined Aircraft Mission in ET Case FALCON Mission in two stages with a re-fueling stop at MSJ MSJ OKO 0030 UTC 15 July 2007 TY Man-Yi WC-130 proposed track

DRIFTSONDE DRIFTSONDE Released from Hawaii Altitude of hPa Approximately 7 days to drift over the Phillipine Sea Dropsonde release controlled from Boulder, CO

Summary T-PARC and collaborating projects constitute a GLOBAL OPERATION Primary Operations center, Monterey, CA Driftsonde center, Boulder, CO Driftsonde release, Hawaii Aircraft locations, and secondary operations centers Guam Japan Taiwan Okinawa

Japan, Atsugi, NAF Okinawa, Kadena AFB T-PARC/TCS-08 Components Guam, Andersen AFB ET characteristics, forcing of downstream impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions, extratropical cyclogenesis Extratropical Transition (ET – recurvature), Downstream Impacts Midlatitude operating region NRL P-3, FALCON TY Nabi, 29 Aug – 8 Sep, 2005 Large-scale circulation, deep convection, monsoon depressions, tropical waves, TC formation Tropical Measurements Tropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130 Subtropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130 TC track characteristics, tropical/midlatitude interaction TC Intensification and structure change Recurvature, initiation of ET