Theory & Causation

Theory & Science  Either one can come first  Criteria for a good theory  Consistent with the facts  Logical—avoid circular reasoning  Parisimonious  Empirical investigation  Able to predict

Empirical research  Operationalization—defining ideas  Example: social class—income level, education—other?  Neighborhoods and poverty--% on welfare, % rental/home ownership, average monthly rent  Other variables—health and mental health indicators, # fires, emergencies, etc.

Operationalization  Operational definition  Measurement of : personality traits, attitudes, intelligence, judgment, punitiveness toward criminals, “just world,” toward poverty  Hypotheses  Shaw and McKay’s research

Hypotheses  Social problems related to city areas  Conclusion: higher rates of delinquency due to community factors rather than race or nationality

Paradigm  Paradigm is a frame of reference, fundamental model  Improvement (gathering of information, research) of an existing paradigm is referred to as “normal science” (Kuhn)  Important scientific progress may be the result of a “scientific revolution”

Scientific revolutions  Data is noted that does not fit the paradigm  Can lead to a new paradigm with new theories  Newtonian physics and the theory of relativity  Does the concept of a paradigm apply to the study of crime?

Paradigms in CJ  Free will vs. determinism (positivism)  Deterrence vs. psychological and sociological theories  Nature vs. nurture, biological vs. environmental explanations  Psychological vs. sociological theories  In criminology, paradigms may come and go

Causation  Necessary and sufficient  Necessary cause: something must be present if the effect is to follow—a person must be charged if he is to be convicted  But that is not enough  Sufficient—condition is present and guarantees the effect—pleading guilty is enough to get a condition

Necessary and sufficient  Condition has to be present and always leads to the result  Generally do not find necessary and sufficient conditions in criminal justice

Criteria for a cause  1. temporal nature—cause always comes before the effect  Rise in crime in the late 50s to mid 80s— what happened prior to the increase?  2. the two variables must be related systematically  Use of correlation  Linear relationships

Criteria  Must not be explained away by a 3 rd variable  Storks and babies  If we find a relationship between child abuse and crime, are there other variables that have an effect on these 2 variables  Head injuries among serious violent offenders—what might explain the relationship?

Understanding relationships  Use of Venn Diagrams  Drug and alcohol and marijuana use and crime  Child abuse and child abusers  Sexual victimization and sexual abuse  Overlapping relationships  Understanding the degree of overlap

Extent of relationship  Use of child abuse and later delinquency example  Retrospective and prospective studies  Lack of experimental studies and need for ex post facto studies  Comparisons of groups, need for base rates And norm groups

Relationships and theories  If child abuse is related to delinquency, why might that be?  Why might sexual victimization be related to later sexual offending in adolescents?  Can we relate the findings to existing theories?  List sample theories

Probability  Probabilistic nature of hypotheses, patterns and theories  Statistical conclusions  Statistical significance of conclusions vs. practical or clinical significance  Ex: intelligence and birth order  Practical implications—not much, but theoretical significance

Probability  Find relationships, seldom find “causes”  Discuss probabilities, but do not “prove”  We use terms such as “indicate” or “suggest” or “seems likely that…”