09/21/2010 National Petroleum Council Future Transportation Fuels Study - Task Group/Subgroup Overview September CSC Meeting Demand Task Group 1

09/21/2010 Transportation demand models share similar structure Fuels Vehicles Transportation System Efficiency (Operations) Travel Activity (VMT, modal choice) Transportation infrastructure planning and investment GHG Fuel = VMT / fuel efficiency + fuel burned in operations Carbon = fuel consumed * carbon intensity FTF S&D focus on Fuels & Vehicles Demand has input here Mostly beyond scope

09/21/ Demand Task Group/Passenger Subgroup – Scope DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only Discuss trends of passenger mobility needs and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by mode. Summarize studies on the effect changes in the cost of driving have on light duty vehicle (LDV) VMT. Discuss current trends of investment in mass transit. Summarize studies on the effect changes in relative costs have on passenger mode choices and LDV sales. Discuss opportunities and limits to alter the passenger mode mix Provide a range of possible passenger VMT estimates by mode, conditioned by policy pathways. Summarize studies on the impact of congestion on fuel consumption and new technologies to improve traffic flow and fuel efficiencies. Summarize studies on LDV choice. Discuss and provide a range of possible new LDV sales distributions, given alternative fuel and technology offerings.

09/21/2010 Demand Task Group/Truck Subgroup – Scope The truck demand group will be looking at several factors that might influence heavy duty truck fuel demand in the future. These include operational changes, economic factors, trade issues, trucking government regulations, and technology impacts. Government related factors that might impact heavy duty fuel consumption include: –Changes in truck weight and length regulations –Reduced idling regulations –Reduced speed limits –Truck only highways Other factors we are considering include: –Changes in filling back loads or efforts to reduce empty miles –Better technology in communications, tracking, and routing –Potential changes in delivery points driven by Panama Canal and Northwest Passage –Reductions in packaging and consumer products The acceptance and penetration of alternative fuels and new technologies, like natural gas or hybrid, will also be investigated.

09/21/ Demand Task Group/Rail Subgroup – Scope DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only Discuss current and future trends in ton miles and VMT Discuss current trends in rail infrastructure investment Summarize studies on operational changes to improve fuel efficiency. These might include advances in –Car, rail or train control technology –Freight handling technology –Dispatching and control technology Discuss new locomotive technologies and opportunities for alternate fuels Discuss opportunities and barriers for electrification. Discuss opportunities and barriers to greater rail sharing between freight and passenger Discuss the impact significant reductions in coal demand would have on the industry; specifically stranded assets and opportunity for converting capacity to ag and container freight.

09/21/ Demand Task Group/Air Subgroup – Framing Questions DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only What are the reference case long-term traffic and capacity industry growth projections for both domestic and international operations and what are the underlying assumptions? How will changes in energy prices impact these projections? Is the range of projections sensitive to the mix of leisure and business traffic? Has the domestic commercial air market matured and how will growth rates be impacted by infrastructure constraints? What will be the impact of the Next Generation Air Traffic Control system on airline operations and industry fuel consumption? What will be the impact of next generation airframes and engines? What is the prospect of Carbon Taxes? Will high speed rail have a material impact on air travel demand in short-haul markets? What will be the relative pricing of fossil-based and alt-fuels?

09/21/ Demand Task Group/Water Subgroup – Scope DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only Discuss current and future trends in ton miles and VMT. Discuss current trends in inland and coastal waterway infrastructure investment. (Will it support reference case growth?) Discuss any new operational and vessel technologies that will make water transport a more effective competitor to rail and truck Discuss the impact of new fuels and technologies on fuel efficiency Discuss the impact significant reductions in coal demand would have on waterway transportation. Or significant increase in ag products for biofuels.

09/21/2010 Demand Task Group/Subgroup – Membership Core Team Deanne ShortChairCaterpillar Inc. Chris SultemeirCo-ChairWal-Mart Stores, Inc John ContiGovt. Co-ChairDepartment of Energy Paul HoltbergAlt. Govt. Co-ChairDepartment of Energy Benjamin Oliver, Jr.SecretaryNational Petroleum Council Jeff CumpataChair, AirUnited Airlines Walter McManusChair, LDV choiceUniversity of Michigan Ralph MullingerChair, Psngr V.M.T.Marathon Oil Co. John GrayChair, Rail Association of American Railroads Bob CostelloChair, Truck American Trucking Association TBDChair, Water DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

09/21/2010 Demand Task Group/Subgroup – Membership Arthur Rypinski MemberU.S. Department of Transportation Deron Lovaas Member Natural Resources Defense Council Mitch Jackson Member FedEx Corporation Paul Sankey Member Deutsche Bank AG Brian Chase Member Chevron Corporation John Heimlich Member Air Transport Association of America Norman Brinkman Member General Motors Company Robert Sturtz Member United Airlines Vincent G. Yuskiewicz Member Exxon Mobil Corporation Roland Hwang AssistantNatural Resources Defense Council Bruce Harris Assistant Wal-Mart Stores, Inc Daniel Gross Assistant Wal-Mart Stores, Inc David T. Clark Assistant Deutsche Bank AG Elizabeth Fretheim Assistant Wal-Mart Stores, Inc Frank Hardesty Assistant Association of American Railroads John Maples Assistant Energy Information Administration Nancy N. Young Assistant Air Transport Association Nicholas Chase Assistant Energy Information Administration Richard Moskowitz Assistant American Trucking Association DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

09/21/2010 Demand Task Group/Subgroup – Membership Air Subgroup Bob PetersenMemberBoeing Commercial Airplanes Laurent RouaudMemberGE Aviation Roger SchaufeleMemberFederal Aviation Administration David LeeAssistantAir Trans. Association of America Shauna BassettAssistantBoeing Commercial Airplanes Steve CsonkaAssistantGE Aviation Mike FarinaAssistantGE Energy-Global Strategy & Planning Passenger Subgroup John BennettMemberAmtrak Art GuzettiMemberAmerican Public Trans. Association Rail Subgroup Michail GoetzkeMemberEMD Martha LenzMemberEMD Truck Subgroup Glen KedzieAssistantAmerican Trucking Association DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

09/21/ Meeting PurposeActual Date Introductory call / Kick Off Initial core team members Detailed Anti Trust statement Review overall scope and plan for full program Review Remit and fit of subgroup in overall program 24 June 2010 Commence Preliminary Scope Framing Questions Discussion1 July 2010 Continue Preliminary Scope and Framing Questions Discussion15 July 2010 Finalize Draft Scope and Framing Questions (Face to Face Meeting)TBD 22 or 29 July 2010 Task Group Review of Subgroup Draft Scope and Framing QuestionsTBD 2 Align Scope and Frame with Other Subgroups within Task Group (Face to Face Meeting)5,6 August 2010 Develop Preliminary Overall Subgroup Plan and Schedule (to Fit with Overall Schedule)12 Aug 2010 Demand Task Group/Subgroup - 60 Day Timeline

09/21/ Barriers/Pinch Points/Dependencies

09/21/ List of Reference Documents