S 1 NACLIM: North Atlantic Climate Predictability of the Climate in the North Atlantic/European sector related to North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean temperature and sea ice variability and change Brief overview

S 2 Facts and figures  Financed by the European Commission  FP 7 Collaborative Project  Duration: 4 years + 3 months (1 Nov – 31 Jan. 2017)  Research Focus: Assessment of decadal climate forecasts  Partners: 19 participating institutions from 10 European countries  5 Core themes, 14 work packages  Project costs: approx. 11 M€  EU contribution: 8.6 M€  Grant agreement with Commission: signed mid-Sept. 2012

S 3 Partners distribution

S 4 Partners Participant no. Participant legal nameCountry 1University of Hamburg (UHAM)Germany 2Max Planck Gesellschaft (MPG)Germany 3Universite Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), including CNRS /LMDFrance 4Universitetet i Bergen (UiB)Norway 5Uni Research AS (UniRes)Norway 6Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung (GEOMAR)Germany 7Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut (DMI)Denmark 8Havstovan (HAV)Faroe Islands 9Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)Finland 10Hafrannsoknastofnunin (MRI)Iceland 11Stichting Koninklijk Nederlands Instituut voor Zeeonderzoek (NIOZ)Netherlands 12The Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS)United Kingdom 13Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)United Kingdom 14Stiftelsen Nansen Senter for Fjernmaaling (NERSC)Norway 15Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO)Belgium 16Geographic Information Management (GIM)Belgium 17Danmarks Tekniske Universitet, National Institute of Aquatic Resources (DTU AQUA)Denmark 18The Scottish Ministers acting through Marine Scotland (MSS)United Kingdom

S 5 Why NACLIM? The North Atlantic Ocean is one of the most important drivers for the global ocean circulation and its variability on time scales beyond inter-annual Global climate variability is to a large extent triggered by changes in the North Atlantic sea surface state The quality and skill of climate predictions depends crucially on a good knowledge of the northern sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice distributions On a regional scale, these parameters strongly impact on weather and climate in Europe, determining precipitation patterns and strengths, as well as changes in temperature and wind patterns Knowledge of these factors, and of their development in the years to come, is of paramount importance for society and key economic sectors, which have to base their planning and decisions on robust climate information

S 6 Concept Investigating and quantifying the predictability on interannual to decadal time scales of the climate in the North Atlantic/European sector related to North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean surface state (SST and sea ice) variability and change NACLIM will partly build on the multi-model decadal prediction experiments currently performed by a number of leading European and worldwide research institutions as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Rather than running climate forecasts within the project, we will analyze the CMIP5 predictions and critically assess their quality for the near-future stage of atmospheric and oceanic quantities

S 7 Goals To quantify the uncertainty of state-of-the-art climate forecasts by evaluating the ability to model the most important oceanic and atmospheric processes in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans, and by comparing key quantities with observations To optimize the present North Atlantic observation system by evaluating the impact of its components on the quality and quality control of model forecasts, and their value in determining the present ocean state and its past variability To quantify the impact on oceanic ecosystems and on European urban societies of predicted North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean variability To critically assess the use of climate forecast parameters for use by stakeholders in society, politics and industry

S 8 Today‘s programme

S 9 Today‘s programme

S 10 Today‘s programme

S 11 Tomorrow: Cross-project meetings Start 09:30 hrs Global observations and predictions Downscaling User needs & climate services Start 11:30 hrs Communication and uncertainty in climate Extremes Observed variability in the climate system

S 12 NACLIM Core theme 5

S 13 WP 5.1 Scientific coordination WP 5.2 Outreach, dissemination and climate services Dissemination of robust climate information meeting the expectations and needs of relevant stakeholders, and allowing their involvement in the decision making process WP 5.3 Coordination across the projects EUPORIAS, NACLIM and SPECS Establishment of a clustering and coordination mechanism across the project EUPORIAS, SPECS and NACLIM, including the set up and coordination of a European climate observation, modeling and services initiative (ECOMS) CT5 is made up of three WPs

S 14 WP 5.1 Scientific coordination UHAM Detlef Quadfasel + Chiara Bearzotti Deputy coordinator Johann Jungclaus MPG CT leaders and co-leaders (MPG, UPMC, UNIRES, GEOMAR, DMI, VITO, GIM, DTU) WP 5.2 Outreach, dissemination UHAM Detlef Quadfasel + Chiara Bearzotti and climate services ICPO Roger Barry VITO Koen der Ridder GIM Bart Thomas /Caroline Heylen + collaboration of all partners WP 5.3 Coordination across the UHAM Detlef Quadfasel + Chiara Bearzotti projects EUPORIAS, NACLIM and SPECS Partners involved

S 15 Core theme 5 – WP 5.1 Scientific coordination

S 16 Decisions on the scientific management of the project will be taken by the Steering committee (SSEC) SSEC is made up of: Project coordinator Detlef Deputy coordinator Johann Core theme leaders: Johann (CT1), Svein (CT2), Steffen (CT3), Mark (CT4) Deliverables D51.54 Overall assessment of priorities for predictability on seasonal to decadal time scales of the climate (UHAM) PM44= June 2016 WP 5.1 Scientific coordination

S 17 Core theme 5 – WP 5.2 Dissemination & outreach

S 18 Goal: dissemination of robust climate information meeting the expectations and needs of relevant stakeholders, and allowing their involvement in the decision making process To achieve the goal of interactive dissemination, a 3-step approach will be taken: (1) Identifying user-needs (end-user workshop in PM9) (2) Develop a climate service plan where users’ needs and capabilities of NACLIM are matched (Climate Service Plan PM12) (3) Dissemination of results by way of electronic media, workshops and conferences (throughout the project PM1-51) WP 5.2 Outreach, dissemination and climate services

S 19 D52.3 Website PM2  D52.61 Dissemination plan PM2=31 December 2012 D52.7 First end-user workshop PM9=before end July 2013 D52.13 Climate service plan PM12=before end October 2013 D52.24 Establishment of information flow PM18= before end of April 2014 D52.35 Second end-user workshop PM34=before end of August 2015 WP5.2 Deliverables

S 20 User and stakeholder needs will be identified during end-user/stakeholders workshop We have to create a bridge between scientific institutions and potential end-users Target: decision-makers, the private sector, the industrial sector, the international climate science community Planned : 1 st Workshop: Understanding users’ needs (before end of PM9= July 2013) 2 nd Workshop: Providing interesting data to our users (before the end of PM34=August 2015) Points to be defined Events organized locally? Language? Web seminars combined with workshops? WP 5.2 Communication with stakeholder

S 21 Climate Service Centers EC Environmental Agency in Copenhagen Meteo-France Norwegian Meteorological Institute ICES (International Council for Exploration of the Seas) Off-shore agents working around Greenland and in the Arctic & Multiplicators Activate your network! WP 5.2 Cooperation sought with

S 22 Core theme 5 - WP 5.3 Coordination across EUPORIAS, NACLIM and SPECS

S 23 NACLIM project has been clustered by the European Commission with two other complementary projects, EUPORIAS and SPECS, under the European initiative for climate service observation and modelling (ECOMS) Goals: 1- Ensuring close coordination in Europe in the area of seasonal to decadal climate predictions towards climate services 2- Providing thought leadership to the European Commission on future priorities in the area of seasonal to decadal climate predictions towards climate services European initiative for climate service observation and modelling (ECOMS)

S 24 Two targets for ECOMS A) Joint dissemination and communication activities, for improving the outreach of results of the three projects B) Establishment of a „think tank“ What ECOMS is supposed to achieve

S 25 Tools A) Tools joint dissemination

S 26 Task? Make recommendations to the European Commission for priorities on European activities related to observation, modelling and climate services. Who is the think tank: three coordinators of EUPORIAS, NACLIM and SPECS and independent advisors Three working groups (WG) will be established within this work package for coordinating the discussion: -WG 1 "Observations and monitoring", led by NACLIM -WG 2 "Modeling and infrastructure", led by SPECS -WG 3 "User/Stakeholder engagement", led by EUPORIAS B) The think tank

S 27 D Recommended priorities Horizon 2020 for observation and monitoring PM5=before end March 2013 D Progress in observations and monitoring PM29 D Outcomes for observations and monitoringPM51 WP5.3 Deliverables