Vulnerability of Food Systems GECAFS approach Polly Ericksen GECAFS Science Officer 17 May 2006

GECAFS Vision A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress. POLICY explicit!!

Food Security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (definition from the World Food Summit) is determined by multiple factors.

Components of Food Security & Key Elements FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS Nutritional Value Social Value Food Safety Affordability Allocation Preference FOOD AVAILABILITY Discuss each aspect and issues Production Distribution Exchange

Food security is a function of multiple stresses 7 12 Misselhorn 2005 Global Environmental Change

Processing & packaging food Distribution & retailing food Generally food systems comprise a number of human activities involved in….. Producing food Processing & packaging food Distribution & retailing food Consuming food

Trends / transformations in food systems On the production side: yield growth, technology advances and concentration, smallholder vs large farms, env. concerns Processing, packing and distribution: long, involved food chains, standardization, concentration and globalization Consumption: price declines, dietary transition, urbanization, CNCDs, etc.

Trends in Food Systems “Traditional” Food Systems “Modern” Food Systems Employment in food sector In production of raw commodities In food manufacturing and retail Supply Chain Short Long with many food miles and lots of nodes Typical food consumed Basic staples Processed food with a brand name; More animal products Purchased food bought from Small, local shop or market Large supermarket chain Nutritional issues Under-nutrition Chronic dietary diseases Main source of national food shocks Poor rains; production shocks International price and trade problems Main source of household food shocks Income shocks leading to food poverty Environmental concerns Soil degradation, land clearing Nutrient loading, chemical runoff, water demands, energy requirements Source: Adapted from Maxwell and Slater, 2004.

“Global” Environmental Change Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities For example changes in: Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality Nitrogen availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

Why a “systems” approach? Lends a generic view – food systems underpin food security but in multiple ways Link multiple activities to multiple outcomes Incorporate dynamism and feedbacks Identify key processes in spite of the complexity Allow for structure (determinism) and agency

GEC – Food System Interactions TWO WAY INTERACTIONS

Food System ACTIVITIES Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: Food Systems Research integrates Food System Activities and Outcomes Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, consumer demand Distributing & retailing food: marketing, advertising, trade Consuming food: preparation, consumption Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: Social Welfare Income Employment Wealth Social & political capital Human capital Infrastructure Peace Insurance Food Security FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS Affordability Allocation Preference Nutritional Value Social Value Food Safety AVAILABILITY Production Distribution Exchange Environmental Security / Natural Capital Ecosystems stocks, flows Ecosystem services Access to natural capital VALUES Multiple outcomes Source: Ericksen, P. (2006) Conceptualizing Food Systems for GEC Research (in prep for Food Policy)

Evaluating affordability of food Characteristics of food security outcome for Site X Major Determinants of food security outcome Linked to FS Activity? Or Other Outcome? Staple grains are cheap if imported; expensive if local. Costs of local production higher than foreign. Determined primarily by the activities under Producing. Fruits and vegetables cheap and available in rural areas. Increasing numbers of farmers moving into horticulture so is surplus. Fish and beef are luxury foods. Chicken is every day food in urban areas. Fish increasingly scarce because waters over-fished. Beef is for the export market. Poultry is a new growth sector and so is available everywhere. Processing centered near urban areas. Incomes differences between urban and rural areas important (social welfare). Aquatic systems reaching their threshold (natural capital). Beef and chicken price and availability determined by Producing, Processing and Retailing. Identification of intervention points

Tradeoffs among outcomes for two different food systems Food available from local production Food available from local production Income Fresh water for aquatic systems Nutrient stocks in soils Food affordable Income Biodiversity Biodiversity Fresh water for aquatic systems Third dimension is that to ensure food security, need to look at thresholds of combinations of income, availability and affordabilty. Nutrient stocks in soils Food affordable (after de Fries et al 2005)

Vulnerability Vulnerability implies HARM or a negative consequence from which is difficult to recover Involves social values Function of exposure to hazards, sensitivity AND social dimensions of coping capacity (internal and external) Coping capacity includes access to assets, diversity of options, institutional, policy and market structures Vulnerability is dynamic and differential

Global environmental change Adds to existing stresses Has previously been addressed in terms of single impacts, primarily production Has various interactions with food systems (activities and outcomes) Production to consumption

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threats Capacity to cope with &/or recover from GEC FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY / VULNERABILITY Exposure to GEC GECAFS view of vulnerability – function of adaptive capacity and resilience SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc.

Adaptive capacity– social Social = ability or capacity or opportunity to modify processes or characteristics so as to better cope with existing or anticipated external stresses Function of assets Access to them Ability to take action/ change behavior

Adaptive capacity- ecological Ecological = resilience How much shock system can take without change Functional attributes Ability to self-organize Ability to adapt and learn Often determined by slow variables, such as reservoirs of nutrients, ecosystem diversity or heterogeneity

Vulnerability of food systems Any component can be vulnerable Multiple expressions Arises through activities/ processes May be “masked” if we only look at outcomes Is fundamentally about systems NOT delivering food security in an equitable and sustainable manner Feedbacks link today to the future

Potential determinants food system vulnerability Low diversity in assets or entitlements Inequity in access to resources and capacity to take action Institutional weaknesses/ inflexible structures Market failures Distance between production and consumption Cross-scale interactions leading to surprise Policy failures

Integrating FS & Vulnerability Research Determinant characteristics examples for food utilisation & water availability Key determinant Determinant characteristics Sensitivity to water availability Vulnerability NUTRITIONAL VALUE   Food diversity Rice, lentil, milk Cows need four months rain to produce milk High: Mild drought makes milk scarce as no dairy market Primary protein Lentils Lentils need two months rain Low: Severe drought makes lentils scarce but buffered by market SOCIAL VALUE Community celebrations & cohesion Special foods for key celebrations, e.g. onset of monsoon Increased variability of monsoon disrupts and diminishes role of celebrations Medium: Significance of celebration foods declines leading to reduced social cohesion Kinship / Etiquette Luxury foods (e.g. eggs) for guests NA FOOD SAFTEY Storage conditions Low-quality, water-pervious baskets Baskets can get damp / flood High: Toxic build-up (e.g. aflotoxins) in stored food Expand the earlier matrices to include vulnerability.

Integrating FS & Vulnerability Research in the IGP: example for Nutritional Value component of Food Utilisation Determinant: food diversity milk Determinant: principal protein lentil GEC Issue Increased incidence of drought GEC Issue Increased incidence of drought FS VULNERABILITY RE FOOD DIVERSITY HIGH Exp. to GEC FS VULNERABILITY RE PRINCIPAL PROTEIN LOW Exp. to GEC Cap. to cope Cap. to cope Socec. Issue Weak dairy market Socec. Issue Strong lentil market Source: Multi-authored analysis of IGP food system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In prep.

What about scale? It influences who / what is vulnerable Institutions, governance and policies vary with/ depend upon it Cross-scale interactions create heterogeneity and SURPRISE (and conflict) Tradeoffs fundamentally are across space and time Subsidies, gains versus costs