The Third Level of Analysis The System, or War Krieg ist die Fortsetzung der Politik mit anderen Mitteln (Clausewitz)

An explanation of WWI Germany was born too late Germany was born encircled Germany’s relative power was gaining on Britain but falling behind Russia (Power Transition Theory) A rising land power will challenge a declining sea power In constructing Germany, the old buffer states were eliminated from the system (Bavaria, Schlesweig-Holstein, Baden, Hanover, Palatinate)

A system is composed of Structure Interacting units

Structure Principles by which subunits are ordered Specification of functions Distribution of capabilities

Polarity Unipolar Unipolar with supportership Bipolar Tripolar Multipolar

Measuring power Military (national power) Political (reputation for national power) Economic Financial Fiscal Demographic Technological/scientific Logistical “Soft Power” Key resources Geographic corrections

Assumptions of systemic approaches States behave similarly to given stimuli External compulsion exists in the environment Constant motivation (which may be security- maximization, interest-maximization) Condition of anarchy [the lack of a sovereign arbiter to make and enforce agreements] Threats and opportunities exist States may vary but only their place and capabilities in the system matter. Vulnerability and power are unevenly distributed.

Examples of Theories Balance of Power Interdependence / Dependencia World Systems Theory Hegemonic Stability Theory Neorealism Neoliberal institutionalism

Assumptions of BoP Egoistic actors seek to survive Vigilance – sensitivity to changes in the distribution of capabilities Mobility of action – states are able to respond quickly and decisively to changes in the BoP States must oppose the stronger (or more threatening) coalition States must be able to project power War is a legitimate tool of statecraft

Assumptions of BoP No alliance handicaps –Ideological barriers –Prior disputes are irrelevant –Ethnic/religious affiliations States pursue moderate war aims Today’s ally may be tomorrow’s enemy Proportional aggrandizement

Balance of Power A system in which the basic assumption is that states are not to be trusted with inordinate power which is a danger to all states and that the antidote to excessive power is power and that when any state is thought to be gaining inordinate power other states recognize this, see it as a threat to their security, take measures to confront it and preserve the power of the great powers. Threat inheres in inordinate power. Power is used to combat power

Responses to a threat Balance Bandwagon Neutrality (Distance, Hide) Appeasement (Engagement) Buck-pass Non-Alignment Do Nothing

Concert of Europe ( ) Alexander Pope: “Now Europe’s balanc’d, neither side prevails, For nothing’s left in either of the Scales”

Why was it created? Exhaustion Balance of power Domestic polities opposed to war Self-restraint of statesmen Standardize diplomatic procedures

How did it operate? GPs made decisions for lesser states Only the policies of the five GPs (UK, Russia, France, Prussia, Austria) could wreck the system GP unity on key issues –Barrier against unilateral action –Borders to be changed by diplomatic conference –Essential members to be protected –GPs must not be humiliated Manage rather than eradicate international dissension

Did it work? For 39 years no GP wars Conferences were held at times of crisis. Revisionists were compensated but with something other than that they demanded. Conflicts among other states continued Conflicts in the periphery continued Non-military competition occurred

Classical Realism States seek to maximize interests (defined as national power) Zero-sum game States expand when they can Conquest pays Interdependence leads to conflicts as states seek autonomy

Liberalism States seek to maximize wealth Positive-sum game Focused on absolute gains Multi-centric: state, IGO, NGO, TNC The “I” terms matter: ideas, institutions, individuals, interdependence, interactions, ideologies, idealism, integration, issue areas Conquest doesn’t pay Interdependence leads to peace Learning is possible (proactive adaptation)

Neorealism States seek to maximize security Zero-sum game Avoid relative losses Conquest doesn’t always pay; depends on relative gains