Trends in Amazon land change and possible consequences for REDD+ Gilberto Câmara National Institute for Space Research Brazil Planet Under Pressure 2012, London

Can we build REDD+ without institutions? Justice Public health Information Knowledge

The rôle of forests in global climate Aware that deforestation accounts for approximately 20% of annual CO 2 emissions, we remain engaged in seeking the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) (G8 L’Aquila Declaration, 2009)

The rôle of forests in global climate Aware that deforestation accounts for approximately 20% of annual CO 2 emissions, we remain engaged in seeking the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) (G8 L’Aquila Declaration, 2009) MYTH

source: Global Land Project (2010) Land change < 10% of total GHG emissions in 2010 Global GHG emissions

REDD+: payments for avoided deforestation Growth in developing countries will produce emissions from deforestation

REDD+: payments for avoided deforestation Growth in developing countries will produce emissions from deforestation MYTH

Brazil’s recent growth and reduced inequality

Economic recovery and deforestation: Yearly deforestation rate for : 27,100 km2

Economic growth without increased deforestation Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia ( ) dropped from 27,000 km 2 to 6,200 km 2

REDD+ can be built bottom-up Chief Almir and Suruí reserve

REDD+ can be built bottom-up Chief Almir and Suruí reserve MYTH

Amazonia: ha Suruí reserve: ha

Why developing countries need REDD+? They cannot control their lands They do not have monitoring technology They do not have transparency

Why developing countries need REDD+? They cannot control their lands They do not have monitoring technology They do not have transparency MYTH

Tb of data lines of code 150 man/years of software dev 200 man/years of interpreters How much it takes to survey Amazonia?

Daily warnings of newly deforested large areas Real-time Deforestation Monitoring

Protected areas and deforestation

Policing actions: illegal wood seizure 50% of operations in 2% of the area

Markets have a positive rôle

“By 2020, Brazil will reduce deforestation by 80% relative to 2005.” (pres. Lula in Copenhagen COP-15)

Transparency builds governance! Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia ( ) dropped from 27,000 km 2 to 6,200 km 2

Deforestation and price trends

Prices or policies? Deforestation Slowdown in the Legal Amazon: Prices or Policies? climatepolicyinitiative.org

Até 10% % 20 – 30% 30 – 40% 40 – 50% 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% 90 – 100% km2 deforested since 1970s Deforestation in Amazonia

How are we using the forest?

ClassTOTAL (km 2 ) Clean Pasture ,9446,7% Secundary Vegetation ,3121,0% Dirty pasture ,758,7% Regeneration with pasture ,376,7% Non-observed areas ,276,3% Agriculture (large-scale) ,244,9% Small farms and settlers ,573,4% Urban areas 3.818,140,5% Mining 730,680,1% Degraded areas 594,190,1% Others 477,880,1% Desflorestation ,641,6% TOTAL ,99

Até 10% % 20 – 30% 30 – 40% 40 – 50% 50 – 60% 60 – 70% 70 – 80% 80 – 90% 90 – 100% Illegal large farms have to recover 80% of area Brazil new Forest Code

Floresta (biomass after 5 years) 200,000 km2 (30% of area) Clear-cut areas Potential for CO2 sink in Amazonia 10 Gt CO 2 eq ( )

Impact of reforestation in Amazonia World’s emission growth in fossil fuels (2% a.a) ( ) Net sink in Amazonia ( ) From 2015 to 2020, reforestation in Amazonia could stabilize global emissions 12 Gt CO2eq 10 Gt CO2eq

Can Brazil hold back REDD+? REDD 5 Gt CO2eq Possible sink in Amazonia 10 Gt CO2eq From 2015 to 2020, the potential carbon sink in Brazil would be double the entire worldwide market for REDD

Impact of reforestation in Amazonia World’s emission growth in fossil fuels (2% a.a) Net sink in Amazonia ( ) Why pay for avoided deforestation when you can stabilize the world’s emissions? 12 Gt CO2eq 10 Gt CO2eq

Can we build REDD+ without institutions? Justice Public health Information Knowledge We cannot have REDD+ without institutions If we have institutions, do we need REDD+?

Will REDD create self-defeating outcomes? ‘We have a resource we would like to get money for. Either you pay us for biodiversity services or we will sell the forest to Malaysian logging companies.’ (Guyana government officer)

Thanks to INPE’s Land Change team Dalton Valeriano Cláudio Almeida Luiz Maurano Isabel Escada Silvana Amaral …and also to Bertha Becker (UFRJ) Tiago Carneiro (UFOP) Roberto Araújo Ana Aguiar Pedro Andrade-Neto Miguel Monteiro