“What Impact of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis on Climate Change and Prospects for a Green Economy?” March, UNESCO Prof. José Goldemberg University of São Paulo São Paulo, Brazil

Problems with the present energy system i. Exhaustion of fossil resources ii. Security of supply iii. Environmental impacts

5 Petroleum fluxes Security of supply

6 Environmental Impacts ProblemMain cause Local Urban air pollution Water availability Soil degradation Toxic and dangerous substances Fossil fuels for transportation Solid fuels (biomass and coal) for heating and cooking. Regional Acid rain Emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides particulate and ozone from fossil fuels Global Reduction of the ozone layer Climate Change Coastal and ocean degradation Deforestation Biodiversity loss Emissions of CO 2 from the burning of fossil fuels Extraction of timber, charcoal production and expansion of the agricultural frontier. Transportation of fossil fuels

7 Global anthropogenic greenhouse emissions in 2004 Source: IPCC, 2007

8 GHG emissions by sector in 2004 Source: IPCC, 2007

Technological Options

Energy Savings in the OCDE (1973 – 1998) 10 Year

Modern renewables projections for 2010 and Note: Projections of modern renewables (including small hydro, excluding large) based on 11.5 percent growth per year, over the period Sources: UNDP, UNDESA, and WEC, 2000 and 2004; REN21, 2006; And IEA, 2006

TECHNOLOGICAL LEAPFROGGING Rather than mimicking the industrialized nations, going through an economic development phase that is dirty and wasteful creating a enormous legacy of environmental pollution, developing countries can leapfrog over some of the steps originally followed by industrialized countries and incorporate currently available modern and efficient technologies into their development process.

Crisis (KIKI) (KI)

Opportunity (KIKAI) (KI) (KAI)

Crisis and Opportunity (KI)